Touchdowns are a big part of fantasy football.

Huge, even.

With six points per score (or four for passing touchdowns, usually), an extra touchdown can swing any fantasy matchup, and of course, touchdown scorer props are a staple when looking at NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

But touchdowns can also be a little volatile. A shoelace tackle here, a tipped pass there. You get it.

So, knowing that we should be tuned into touchdowns for various reasons, it stands to reason that we should want to figure out who should be scoring more (or fewer) times this season.

We can use some math to do just that.

Defining Touchdown Regression

Simply, regression can show us who is scoring more often or less often than they "should."

The "should" part is pretty subjective because better players can maintain elevated scoring rates, but in most instances across the league, the regression monster is always lurking, and players should play to a true baseline of their underlying output over the long-term.

To varying degrees, receiving stats such as receiving yards, red zone targets, and numberFire's Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) tell us a lot about touchdown totals (NEP is just an Expected Points Added [EPA] model by another name).

We can leverage historical relationships between various stats and touchdowns to see what true scoring expectations should be.

Is Touchdown Regression Real?

Yes, we see a lot of corrections in touchdown rates when players overperform or underperform expectations.

I laid out the process already for quarterback regression candidates and running back regression candidates.

I'll do it again for WRs.

Four stats stand out as helping us find "expected" touchdowns.

1. Receiving Yards
2. Reception NEP
3. Successful Catches
4. Red Zone Targets

A successful catch is one that increases a team's EPA or NEP.

Okay, so we have four methods of estimating touchdowns, and I'm going to average them out to get a smoothed-out expected touchdown (xTD) number for each wideout since 2012 (with at least 50 targets).

I'll then find players whose TD% (touchdowns per target) was at least 1.0 point different than their xTD rate and who also had 50-plus targets the next season. That'll help us study what happens after a player was "lucky" or "unlucky" in the TD column.

A sample of 227 overachievers with qualified follow-up seasons emerges.

Among those 227, 188 (82.8%) saw their touchdown rate decline the following season. The sample declined by an average of a hefty 2.8%. That's a difference of 2.8 touchdowns over a 100-target season. That's pretty substantial.

Conversely, the 202 underperformers bounced back more often than not (76.6% of the time) and increased their sample average TD% by 1.9%.

Very often -- but not always -- players who deviate from expectation in a noticeable way revert closer to their baseline the next season.

2024 Touchdown Regression Candidates: Wide Receivers

Here is a look at the xTD numbers for last year's qualified receiver group. The table is sorted by most xTDs.

The top of the board checks out. CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill both went for over 1,700 yards last season, and their xTD count led the league.

But who underperformed noticeably?

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford made the list of quarterbacks who should have better touchdown luck in 2024.

Wide receiver Puka Nacua should be along for the ride.

Nacua scored only 6 times despite 8.4 xTDs and 1,468 yards. In NFL history, there have been 116 seasons with at least 1,400 receiving yards, and only five of them had 5 or fewer TDs, and only 14 of them had fewer than 7.

Via numberFire's fantasy football projections, Nacua is projected for 8.3 touchdowns across a 17-game season (0.49 per game). At that pace, he'd score 7.0 or more in 15 games.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman Jr. was one of four WRs to have an xTD differential of at least -3.0 in 2023.

Pittman Jr. scored only 4 times on 1,152 yards and 20 red zone targets and stands out as one of the most obvious regression candidates of 2024.

numberFire is projecting him for 6.2 scores (0.37 per game). At that per-game pace, he'd get to 5.5 scores in 15 games.

Pittman also is a multi-season regression candidate. Since his rookie season (2020), he has an xTD differential of -8.0, the second-largest gap of any WR in that span.

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns

Amari Cooper's 5 scores were 1.9 off the expected pace of 6.9 xTDs, and quarterback play had a lot to do with the overall efficiency.

Still, Cooper went for 1,250 yards and was top-12 in Reception NEP among WRs, a strong season by those metrics.

With that in mind, Cooper has scored 14 times in two seasons with the Cleveland Browns with an xTD output of 14.2.

numberFire is projecting Cooper for 5.94 scores (0.35 per game) across a full season.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave has had 9 receiving scores in two seasons with the New Orleans Saints while going over the 1,000-yard mark in each.

He now has an xTD differential of -3.3 in his young career, making him one of a dozen players with a three-touchdown gap combined over the last two seasons.

Olave is projected by numberFire for 7.0 touchdowns (0.41 per game). At that pace, he'd score 6.2 across a 15-game season.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin and underperforming in the TD column has been a constant for three straight seasons -- after three straight years overperforming there.

But since 2017, he's now at a -7.3 expected touchdown tally. Over the last three seasons, he's at -10.3. That's -- by far -- the largest negative discrepancy among WRs in that span with nobody else worse than a -6.3.

Godwin's TD projection from numberFire is 5.9, which works out to 0.35 per game. That pace would get him to 5.2 scores across 15 games.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Through two seasons with the New York Jets, Garrett Wilson has just 7 touchdowns on 315 targets and 2,145 yards.

Wilson now makes up two of the 11 weakest touchdown differentials we've seen over the last two seasons among WRs.

Regression -- and better QB play -- seem to be inevitable. With that in mind, though, his touchdown prop is pretty elevated at 7.5 this season at FanDuel Sportsbook.

numberFire's model is high on Wilson and projects him for 8.6 touchdowns (0.51 per game). He'd have a 15-game pace of 7.6.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle had overperformed in 2022 and then came back to earth for the 2023 season. That's usually how touchdown rates work -- and why it's helpful to look for the outliers each season.

Waddle did have a weak red zone role in 2023 (11.9% target share) but wasn't great there in 2022 either (12.9%).

His touchdown prop is set at 5.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and he's projected for 5.7 scores, via numberFire, over a 17-game season.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

Drake London has only 6 receiving touchdowns in two seasons with outputs of 866 and 905 yards in those seasons. He has now combined for a -5.0 touchdown differential, which is the fifth-largest since 2022.

He's got a new quarterback in town in Kirk Cousins, so improved efficiency could be on the way.

Expectations are high, though, as his TD prop is 6.5.

Be sure to check out the lists for the other positions:

• 5 Quarterbacks Who Should Score More in 2024
• 5 Running Backs Who Should Score More in 2024
• 5 Tight Ends Who Should Score More in 2024

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.