Touchdowns are a big part of fantasy football.

Huge, even.

With six points per score (or four for passing touchdowns, usually), an extra touchdown can swing any fantasy matchup, and of course, touchdown scorer props are a staple when looking at NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

But touchdowns can also be a little volatile. A shoelace tackle here, a tipped pass there. You get it.

So, knowing that we should be tuned into touchdowns for various reasons, it stands to reason that we should want to figure out who should be scoring more (or fewer) times this season.

We can use some math to do just that.

Defining Touchdown Regression

Simply, regression can show us who is scoring more often or less often than they "should."

The "should" part is pretty subjective because better players can maintain elevated scoring rates, but in most instances across the league, the regression monster is always lurking, and players should play to a true baseline of their underlying output over the long-term.

To varying degrees, rushing stats such as rushing yards, red zone carries, and numberFire's Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) tell us a lot about touchdown totals (NEP is just an Expected Points Added [EPA] model by another name).

We can leverage historical relationships between various stats and touchdowns to see what true scoring expectations should be.

Is Touchdown Regression Real?

Succinctly, yes, it is. I laid out the process (and touchdown regression candidates) for quarterbacks already, but now I'll do it for RBs.

A few stats have strong relationships for running backs and rushing touchdowns.

1. Rushing Attempts
2. Rushing Yards
3. Successful Rushes
4. Red Zone Rushes

A successful rush is one that increases a team's EPA or NEP.

Regression analysis lets us estimate expected touchdowns (xTD) based on these stats, and I will average them out to get a singular expected rushing TD output for each player since 2012.

Let's see what this can teach us from year to year.

Since 2012, we can classify 81 running backs as "overachievers" who also had a relevant follow-up season to see how their touchdown rate (TD%; TDs per carry). The overachieving group had a TD% 1.0 points or greater than their xTD%.

Basically, these are the backs who scored more than they should have and who had at least 100 carries the next year so we can test the aftermath of an outlier season.

Of these 81, 73 of them (90.1%) saw their touchdown rate decline the next year, and as a group, their TD% dropped by an average of 2.2%.

Chalk another one up for the math.

Along the same lines, 88 running backs classify for me as underachievers in this span. Of those 88, 72 increased their TD% the next year (81.8%), doing so by a sample average of 1.7%.

Similar corrections exist for receiving scores for RBs (based on using red zone targets, receiving yards, and Reception NEP), but I won't get into the details there.

2024 Touchdown Regression Candidates: Running Backs

Here is a look at the xTD numbers for last year's running back class. The table is sorted by most xTDs.

Firstly, it's as expected to see Christian McCaffrey at the top of the xTD list at 14.2. He did score 21 times and had 3.4 more receiving TDs than expected, but his TD rate can take a big hit and still be great.

A few other standout players who had elevated workloads in 2023 are at the top. Again, this is as expected.

While we're mostly focusing on underperformers who should score more often, it's hard not to call attention to Raheem Mostert's +12.2 touchdown-over-expectation output. That's the largest gap in my database (since 2012) and the only one in the double digits.

Below are some of the most notable underachievers who project for big workloads in 2024.

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard will be switching teams this year (actually a bit of a theme in this article -- unexpectedly).

Pollard signed with the Tennessee Titans after a five-year career with the Dallas Cowboys.

With that said, 18 of 24 (75.0%) under-performers who changed teams the next year increased their TD%, so a new offense doesn't necessarily signal ruined bounce-back potential.

Therefore, Pollard should still be able to convert on more touchdown chances in 2024. But the volume of chances he gets could be different within the offense. That's what's important to keep in mind with him.

Pollard is projected for 6.24 rushing touchdowns, via numberFire's fantasy football projections, while splitting time with Tyjae Spears.

That's 0.37 per game, and across 15 games at that pace, he'd be at 5.51 scores.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

James Cook is a fascinating discussion point for something like touchdown regression.

Statistically speaking, he was really productive and should have scored more often in 2023 than he actually did. He should've had nearly 10 touchdowns (9.9 xTD) but scored only 6 times despite ranking fourth in rushing yards (1,122) and adding 445 receiving yards (8th among RBs).

However, he had just a 29.0% red zone rushing share while quarterback Josh Allen (32.7%) and RB Latavius Murray (18.7%) stole a lot of red zone work.

He could continue to be an under-performer if his red zone role stays capped.

Still, red zone volume alone doesn't fully predict TD rates, and Cook should score more frequently in 2024. numberFire is projecting him for 6.55 rushing scores this year over a 17-game season.

A 0.39 touchdown-per-game rate is strong and would put him at 5.01 touchdowns in 13 games.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones is another back on the list who changed teams this offseason and now joins a former NFC North rival, the Minnesota Vikings.

Jones has historically run hot in the xTD differential column and has a career xTD differential of +10.5. In fact, 2023 was just the second season underperforming by TD rate. The other? That was 2022.

Assuming a 17-game season, Jones is projected for 6.51 touchdowns on the ground, per numberFire.

Devin Singletary, New York Giants

Devin Singletary is projected to take on a big workload for the New York Giants.

Singletary put up 898 yards on 216 carries last year with the Houston Texans. He also had 30 catches for 193 yards. He was scoreless through the air and had four touchdowns on the ground.

His xTD total was 7.4.

Singletary has a career xTD differential of -10.7, which is the sixth-lowest output of all backs since the 2012 season and the most since 2019.

numberFire projects Singletary for 6.27 rushing scores over 17 games this season. That per-game pace over 14 games would put him at 5.16 scores.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Yet another back on a new team, Josh Jacobs has joined the Green Bay Packers after an underwhelming touchdown season.

Jacobs should've scored 8.5 times but had just 6 touchdowns. Jacobs has largely played close to touchdown expectation in his five-year career but now sits 2.5 scores below expectation in the NFL.

It's notable that Aaron Jones (-4.0) and A.J. Dillon (-4.3) underperformed in the rushing TD column with Green Bay last season, so this backfield of Jacobs and Dillon could be primed for rushing success in 2024.

Jacobs is projected for 9.65 rushing scores in Green Bay across a full, 17-game season, per numberFire.

Be sure to check out the lists for the other positions:

• 5 Quarterbacks Who Should Score More in 2024
• 8 Wide Receivers Who Should Score More in 2024
• 5 Tight Ends Who Should Score More in 2024

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.