Touchdowns are a big part of fantasy football.

Huge, even.

With six points per score (or four for passing touchdowns, usually), an extra touchdown can swing any fantasy matchup, and of course, touchdown scorer props are a staple when looking at NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

But touchdowns can also be a little volatile. A shoelace tackle here, a tipped pass there. You get it.

So, knowing that we should be tuned into touchdowns for various reasons, it stands to reason that we should want to figure out who should be scoring more (or fewer) times this season.

We can use some math to do just that.

Defining Touchdown Regression

Simply, regression can show us who is scoring more often or less often than they "should."

The "should" part is pretty subjective because better players can maintain elevated scoring rates, but in most instances across the league, the regression monster is always lurking, and players should play to a true baseline of their underlying output over the long-term.

To varying degrees, receiving stats such as receiving yards, red zone targets, and numberFire's Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) tell us a lot about touchdown totals (NEP is just an Expected Points Added [EPA] model by another name).

We can leverage historical relationships between various stats and touchdowns to see what true scoring expectations should be.

Is Touchdown Regression Real?

Yes, but for tight ends, it's a little more nebulous than it is for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.

The four most important stats for finding "expected" touchdowns for tight ends are as follows:

1. Receiving Yards
2. Reception NEP
3. Target NEP
4. Red Zone Targets

That gives us four different touchdown estimates, which I'll then average out for a singular expected touchdown (xTD) tally.

In order to test whether the regression hits at tight end, I'll find "overperformers" and "underperformers" and see how they fare after outlier seasons.

These are players with a touchdown rate (touchdowns per target) of at least 1.0 points different than their xTD% and who had at least 35 targets the following season to give us a comparison point.

The overperforming sample includes 87 tight ends, and of those, 70 (80.5%) saw their touchdown rate decline the next season.

The underperformers (88 of them), 65 of them (73.8%) increased their touchdown rate the next year.

That's a solid hit rate, so let's dig in to last year's data and see what stands out.

2024 Touchdown Regression Candidates: Tight Ends

Here is a look at the xTD numbers for last year's qualified TE group. The table is sorted by most xTDs.

Who checks out as an underperformer? Well, a lot of the top options, actually.

Why?

For a few reasons, really.

Firstly, their production outside the touchdown column was quite good, which is basically what we're seeking here.

Beyond that, league-wide scoring trends continue to be a little more rushing friendly on a per-score basis, and tight ends were hit hard as a result in 2023.

TEs had a 4.6% touchdown rate as a position, the only year since 2012 where it dipped below 5.0%.

Throw in the fact that only Sam LaPorta (10) had more than 6 touchdowns, and you get a list of studs who should score more.

Here are the top five names to know entering the 2024 season

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle is an interesting case for regression, as he had accrued a TD differential of -13.3 from 2017 to 2021 and then exploded for a +4.3 season in 2022 when he scored 11 times on only 765 yards.

He was an overachiever from 2022 who underachieved in 2023.

This past season, he went for a position-best 1,020 yards but scored only 6 times.

numberFire's fantasy football projections model is projecting Kittle for 6.2 touchdowns this season, 0.36 per game over a 17-game season. At that pace, he'd score 5.5 times in 15 contests.

His touchdown prop is 5.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce is another name coming off of an overperforming 2022 (+1.8 scores) before underperforming in 2023, which speaks to the volatility of touchdowns (especially for TEs).

Kelce fell 2.1 scores below expectation when he scored 5 times instead of 7.1, despite 20 red zone targets.

His touchdown prop at FanDuel Sportsbook is set at 6.5, so a bounce-back is expected.

numberFire's projections peg him for 8.5 touchdowns over 17 games (0.50 per game) and 7.0 across a 14-game season at that scoring rate.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson is in an interesting spot as his quarterback play becomes quite uncertain with the Minnesota Vikings and he's working his way back from an ACL injury.

Hockenson has been placed on the PUP list despite being "well ahead of schedule" on his recovery.

Hockenson is being drafted as a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 given the probability that he misses time, but once he's back, he could be primed to score more often.

If the quarterback play is sufficient, that is.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson has scored 2 and 5 touchdowns through two NFL seasons on the back of 174 and 761 yards.

In 2023, his role really scaled up, and he eclipsed the 100-target mark (102) and saw 25 red zone targets go his way.

numberFire projects Ferguson for 6.0 scores over 17 games, which is 0.35 per game and puts him on a 14-game pace for 5.0 touchdowns.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

Since scoring 6 times in his rookie season of 2017, Evan Engram has never scored more than 5 times and has averaged only 3.0 end-zone trips ever since.

Interestingly here, though, Engram was one of the few underachievers from 2022 who saw his touchdown rate decline in 2023, and he's now at -3.1 xTD in two years with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

He's projected by numberFire for 5.8 scores over 17 games (0.33 per game) and 5.0 over 15 games at that scoring rate.

Be sure to check out the lists for the other positions:

• 5 Quarterbacks Who Should Score More in 2024
• 5 Running Backs Who Should Score More in 2024
• 8 Wide Receivers Who Should Score More in 2024

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.