Colonial Downs Picks: Virginia Derby Day, 3/14/26

Key Takeaways:

• Virginia Derby Day brings a rare spring stakes card of Colonial Downs picks, highlighted by the Virginia Derby and Virginia Oaks, both offering 50 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.
• Colonial’s sweeping one-turn mile configuration plays differently than most American tracks, often rewarding horses with tactical speed and proven form at extended one-turn distances.
• Passage East enters the Sandy Bottom Stakes in peak form with three straight wins and strong past Colonial Downs horse racing success, going one turn.
• Think Fast has improved dramatically since switching to dirt and stretches to a mile with tactical speed and upside against this field.
• Hit Parade looks well-suited to a stalking trip in the Virginia Oaks and could rebound at a fair price after a troubled effort last time out.

The Kentucky Derby trail winds east for the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on Saturday, March 14. Though the main Colonial Downs horse racing meeting runs in the summer, the track also hosts a special weekend of racing in March, highlighted by the $500,000 Saturday feature that offers the winner 50 Kentucky Derby points, enough to punch them a ticket to Churchill Downs for the Run for the Roses.

However, the Virginia Derby isn’t the only exciting action in Richmond on Saturday. The card also includes the Virginia Oaks, a 50-25-15-10-5 point Kentucky Oaks prep that virtually assures its winner a ticket to Churchill Downs. There are also stakes for older horses on the card: the Royal New Kent Stakes is a dirt mile for older horses, and the Sandy Bottom Stakes is a dirt mile for older fillies and mares. Enough horses entered the Sandy Bottom that two divisions of it, each with a $100,000 purse, will be run Saturday.

The first race on Virginia Derby day gets underway at noon Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday at Colonial Downs. You can watch all the action and get all the latest news about contenders on FanDuel TV. And, you can get past performances and bet all the races on FanDuel! Make sure to check the scratches and weather before you play – it’s supposed to be dry on Saturday, partly cloudy, but it can change at any time, and scratches can happen for any reason.

Colonial Downs Picks - 2026 Virginia Derby Day Best Bets

Race 6: Sandy Bottom Stakes (division 1), one mile on the dirt - Passage East, Amalfi Drive

FanDuel odds: 2-1 and 12-1

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Passage East (2-1) has won three in a row, and eight of her last nine starts – this daughter of Audible just keeps showing up. She had never tried stakes company until last out, but she passed the test, digging in deep to score by a nose over Takethemoneyhoney, who came back to win a stakes of her own next out. Passage East also loves extended one-turn trips: she won at both seven furlongs and a mile at Colonial last year, and has also won going seven at both Churchill Downs and Laurel Park. Finally, unlike many morning-line favorites, she has a good shot to drift better than her morning-line price, between the fact that she’s trained by local Hugh McMahon and not a national barn, and the fact that she has such limited stakes experience.

For a long shot, take a look at Amalfi Drive (12-1). The Mike Stidham trainee tries the one-turn mile for the first time in her career, and should be fit after a couple of longer two-turn tries leading into this race. She won her only previous start over the track, so she has a reason to appreciate returning to it. And, though her only two wins came at six furlongs, she wasn’t disgraced in her last two starts, and her pedigree – Medaglia d’Oro out of Sara Street, a Street Sense mare with some stakes-quality form going as long as 1 ⅛ miles – suggests that she’ll take to longer. With only five starts in her career, this four-year-old filly has a chance to move forward, and with the tactical speed to work a trip over a course where she has already won, there’s enough upside here to suggest taking a shot with this horse, who may be the longest shot on the board.

Race 7: Sandy Bottom Stakes (division 2), one mile on the dirt - Think Fast, Runaway Diva

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 5-1

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The road to big stakes days, especially ones outside the state of Illinois, rarely winds through Fairmount Park. And yet, the light came on for Think Fast (6-1) last year in Collinsville. She never contended in her turf debut at Indiana Grand for Brad Cox, and then turned up two and a half months later for Pat Clay at the downstate track. She won by 28 ¾ lengths, suggesting she had a future on bigger circuits. She beat winners at Hawthorne next out, moved to the barn of Hugh McMahon, and then ran second in a stakes at Laurel next out. After a winter freshening, she came back to clear her second-level condition in a seven-furlong sprint at Laurel and now stretches out to a mile. The one-turn mile should be perfect for her, she regularly shows tactical speed, and she gets back jockey Yedsit Hazlewood, who rode her to that allowance win last out. This is the toughest field she has faced to date, but she fits, she is lightly-enough raced to have upside, and she is bred for a mile (and more) on the dirt.

Runaway Diva (5-1) is a horse for the course. She has three wins in 16 career starts – but two of those three have come in just three outings on the Colonial dirt, all at the one-turn mile. And, the one defeat was still a close third in her first race off the lay, meaning she has three good races over the course and distance in three tries. She has the versatility to stalk the pace or rally from further off of it, and can run well whether the pace sets up quick or more pedestrian. Runaway Diva was a good second in her only start so far this year, in a two-turn stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, and if she takes a modest step up from that over her favorite track, she can shine at a price here.

Race 8: Virginia Oaks, 1 1/16 miles on the dirt - Hit Parade, Bottle of Rouge

FanDuel odds: 3-1 and 6-5

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Given that the Virginia Derby is a one-turn 1 ⅛-mile trip, it’s no surprise that the 1 1/16 miles of the Virginia Oaks also comes at a sweeping, one-turn configuration. Even though the Virginia Oaks drew a field of just six, there’s a lot of extended one-turn form in the race – it’s a logical spot for a lot of the runners. It also shapes up like a major case of “the pace makes the race”: Dazzling Dame and Kadabria reliably hit the gas, Bottle of Rouge and Hit Parade regularly stalk the pace, and then Somemunny to Love and Baffle usually come from further back.

A stalking trip looks like the goldilocks zone here – just right, if you will. For the price, Brad Cox trainee Hit Parade (3-1) should be a good bet in this spot. She disappointed in the Martha Washington last out at Oaklawn, but was further off the pace than usual and moved too early, a different trip than she usually likes to get. If her new rider, Irad Ortiz, Jr., can get her back in her usual stalking spot, she can show the kind of form that won her the Untapable – and a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs three starts back. That was against $50,000 starter allowance company, but she won that in fast enough fashion to suggest she has enough to be competitive here, especially since she has since won an Oaks points race.

Bottle of Rouge (6-5) is a well-placed shipper for Bob Baffert. And, unlike Baffert’s Virginia Derby shipper Buetane, who just keeps finding a few too good on the Derby trail, Bottle of Rouge does keep showing up on the Oaks trail. She was defeated in the Breeders’ Cup – but won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) before that and won the Sunland Park Oaks in her first sophomore start. She won both of those races with good stalking trips, and the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante shows her ability at a one-turn configuration. The only drawback is price – she’ll probably be an even heavier favorite than her morning line suggests. But, it’s a cozy spot for her, and she should get her trip.

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