2026 Virginia Derby Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

Key Takeaways:

• The Virginia Derby is a new stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering 50 qualifying points to the winner and virtually guaranteeing a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs.
• The race’s unusual one-turn 1⅛-mile configuration at Colonial Downs could favor horses with strong one-turn mile form and tactical speed rather than pure two-turn grinders.
• High Camp brings upside after two improving starts at Gulfstream and has the tactical speed and pedigree to handle the step up in distance.
• Incredibolt owns proven class from his Street Sense win and could rebound second off the layoff, returning to a favorable one-turn configuration.
• Lockstocknpharoah is unbeaten in two starts and has a strong dirt pedigree, making him an intriguing value play despite switching from Turfway’s Tapeta surface.

The newest stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby is at Colonial Downs Racetrack in Virginia for the Virginia Derby. The race will be run for the second time ever on Saturday, March 14. It drew a field of 10 horses to go a one-turn 1 ⅛ miles and compete for a $500,000 purse and 50-25-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualification points for the top five finishers. It’s enough to assure the winner a trip to the Kentucky Derby, and others can go as well if they run well in another prep.

The morning-line favorite is Buetane, who ships west for trainer Bob Baffert. He has yet to win a stakes race, but is three times graded-stakes placed, including a runner-up finish in the Hopeful (G1) behind Ted Noffey. Familiar stakes horses include Street Sense (G3) winner Incredibolt and Withers runner-up Grittiness, and they’ll line up against promising new faces like maiden winner High Camp and allowance winner Lockstocknpharoah.

2026 Virginia Derby Information

• Race Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
• Track: Colonial Downs
• Post Time: 5:10 p.m. Eastern Standard Time
• Distance: 1 ⅛ miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

2026 Virginia Derby Odds

This is the field for the Virginia Derby, including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds for each horse:

Virginia Derby Prep Results

The 10 horses in the Virginia Derby come out of eight different races. The only one with more than one last-out runner is the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7. The race has been franked with third-place The Puma coming back to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 7, but fifth-place Epic Desire, sixth-place Ocelli, and seventh-place Confessional all need to move forward from those efforts.

Three other horses in the field come out of Kentucky Derby points races. Grittiness was most recently second in the Withers on February 26 at Aqueduct, and his last two starts have come at 1 ⅛ miles – making him the only horse in the field to have tried the distance before. Butane also hit the board last out, running third behind Silent Tactic in the Southwest (G3) on February 6 at Oaklawn. Incredible was well bet in the Holy Bull (G3), but weakened to finish sixth and last behind Nearly.

A pair of runners were last seen in allowance company. Lockstocknpharoah is undefeated in two starts, most recently winning an allowance mile at Turfway on February 7. Clocker Special just missed by a neck in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Oaklawn on February 8, doing the dirty work on the pace and just getting caught late.

Two others in the field come out of maiden special weight wins. High Camp tracked the pace and took over late to win a seven-furlong dirt sprint at Gulfstream on February 7. Work earned his diploma on February 15 on the grass, rallying and holding by a neck in a 6 ½-furlong turf sprint.

Virginia Derby Contenders

These are the contenders in the Virginia Derby, organized by post position:

1. Buetane: He’ll be well bet, and his speed figures are strong for the group, but Buetane still has to prove he wants to go longer than a sprint distance. Perhaps the one-turn, 1 ⅛-mile configuration will help him along, but it still remains that even though he has kept good company, his only win so far came at a flat six furlongs, and he has always found a horse or two too good going any longer. Thus, the betting value is in beating him.
2. Grittiness: Todd Pletcher has taken several shots with maidens in Kentucky Derby preps, and takes another one here with Grittiness. He has snagged a few Derby points from underneath shares so far, finishing fifth in the Remsen (G2) last fall and then a well-beaten second in the Withers in his stakes debut. Both of those races covered 1 ⅛ miles, so this stamina-bred son of Curlin has been building up for this. However, he needs to figure out how to find the wire and even with upside second off the lay, make sure he stays at something near or even a bit above his morning line before playing him for more than lower rungs of exotics.
3. Epic Desire: This is another Todd Pletcher runner with distance dirt breeding, being by Uncle Mo out of Brooklynsway, and thus a full brother to Adare Manor. He woke up trying two turns on dirt for the first time, but was no match for his (then-maiden) stablemate Renegade in the Sam F. Davis. The trip will probably suit him, at least eventually, but he needs to move forward and may get overbet given the trainer factor.
4. Work: His pedigree suggests he should like dirt, but he didn’t figure things out until last out, when he sprinted on the turf. Though his pedigree suggests distance and dirt might be his thing, it’s a little hard to figure that’s the case based on on-track performance. The biggest plus is how well Doug O’Neill trainees do in their next start off a maiden win, but it’s hard to see him as more than a possible pace factor going long on dirt.
5. High Camp: He cedes experience to most of his foes, but on the other hand, this Will Walden trainee has plenty of upside. He battled on the pace and chased on for place on debut in a six-furlong sprint at Gulfstream, then next out he stretched to seven furlongs, showed some tactical speed, and scored by a length. Trainer Will Walden does well with first-time routers, and High Camp’s pedigree supports the step up in trip. He also keeps Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez in the irons, another point in his favor.
6. Lockstocknpharoah: This Tom Drury trainee has hardly set a hoof wrong in two steps, graduating from off the pace in a sprint at Turfway despite an imperfect start, and then leading at every call to win a one-mile allowance there. If he is the same horse on dirt as he is on the Tapeta, he has a strong chance once the gates open. Dirt is a new race-day challenge, but based on pedigree, he’ll love it: he is by American Pharoah out of a Nyquist mare with no shortage of dirt class in his family. Between the surface change and under-the-radar connections, there is value.
7. Incredibolt: He has the class from his freshman season, winning the Street Sense (G3) by daylight at Churchill Downs last October. However, his return in the Holy Bull was dull; though he was off a flying pace, he weakened to sixth and last behind Nearly. There is reason to think he can improve: he needed his first start last year as well, Riley Mott shines second off the layoff, and some horses just don’t take to Gulfstream well. With a few others likely to take a lot of money, these are serious reasons to give him a mulligan.
8. Confessional: He shined on debut at Keeneland last summer and finished a quality second behind Nearly in an allowance next out, but came up completely empty in the Sam F. Davis last out, his first race at a route distance. That was his only race at notably quirky Tampa Bay Downs and his only race without blinkers, something he is re-adding for this start. Blinkers back on is a strong move for Brad Cox; he gets back jockey Irad Ortiz, and he has reason to improve – though with others in the field with upside at more of a price, he may be a little underlaid even as a live horse.
9. Ocelli: Also coming out of the Sam F. Davis, he came into that race a maiden and remains one, making an early bid and weakening down the lane. He has run well in three starts in maiden company before that, but he is going to need to step up – and the flat speed figures across all four of his starts mean that he’s coming dangerously close to the sort of horse where you just know what you’re going to get, especially since his pedigree makes 1 ⅛ miles a question.
10. Clocker Special: This cheekily-named son of Not This Time graduated in a dirt sprint at Ellis last summer in his second start, took a long winter break, and returned with a close second in an allowance at Oaklawn, finishing right in the frame despite doing the dirty work up front. Especially if he can learn how to settle over a longer trip, more like he did in his maiden win last year, going short, he could get a decent trip.

Virginia Derby Past Winners Past Performances

The Virginia Derby was run for the first time in 2025, so these patterns have not yet established themselves. The 2025 winner, D. Wayne Lukas trainee American Promise, broke his maiden as a juvenile in a 1 1/16-mile race at Oaklawn but ran off the board in both the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn and the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds before breaking through in the Virginia Derby.

Expect the trends to establish themselves over the next few years. The track configuration is an interesting consideration: it’s a 1 ⅛-mile race, but conducted over only one turn. That’s an uncommon setup, but horses with good form over extended one-turn mile configurations and some stamina, either in their pedigree or proven in other two-turn races, could find this to be a comfortable spot. Class is another configuration; though this is a 50-point Kentucky Derby prep, it is ungraded. The first winner won this on a class drop, and that may continue to be a fruitful angle.

Virginia Derby: 3 Best Bets

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Virginia Derby:

1. High Camp (9-2)

High Camp steps up to stakes company for the first time after a pair of good efforts in maiden company at Gulfstream. He stepped up second out despite drawing a wide gate, handling a one-turn seven-furlong trip well. This will be a longer trip, two furlongs longer, but he remains over an extended one-turn trip and should be able to take advantage of his tactical speed once more under jockey John Velazquez.

His pedigree also gives him every reason to handle the mile and an eighth. Sire Instagrand was more of a miler but wasn’t disgraced in the 1 ⅛-mile Santa Anita Derby, and he comes from that Into Mischief line where a little stamina on the dam’s side can go a long way. He is out of an unraced Uncle Mo mare from a family with class going long on both turf and dirt, meaning High Camp has every right to find it.

2. Incredibolt (10-1)

Incredibolt disappointed in his only start so far this year, running sixth and last in the Holy Bull. However, the only previous Virginia Derby featured a winner who bounced back from a pair of off-the-board finishes in points races. Looking back to last year’s form, not only does he have a win in the Street Sense (G2), but he broke his maiden at a one-turn mile. That kind of trip, where he stalked and pounced over that extended one-turn configuration, could be exactly what gets him home in this extended one-turn race as well.

It’s also a positive to see how well trainer Riley Mott does second off the layoff, overlaid with the fact that Incredibolt himself needed his debut and then took a nice step up to break his maiden next out. Mott isn’t panicking after the Holy Bull setback – he kept Incredibolt on the Derby trail, kept Jaime Torres in the irons, and has been working him regularly since soon after the Holy Bull. That could pay dividends in Virginia.

3. Lockstocknpharoah (5-1)

The big question with Lockstocknpharoah, of course, is surface: he has won impressively twice, but both of those starts have come on the Tapeta at Turfway, and this will be his first try on a conventional dirt track. However, he has no shortage of dirt form in his family: his sire American Pharoah won the Triple Crown, his damsire Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby, and his second dam’s full sister Sara Louise is a multiple graded-stakes winner on dirt, with other stakes class on dirt through the family. He may have started on Tapeta, but the pedigree is dirt.

His running lines are interesting, too. Though he led at every call in his two-turn allowance win, he overcame early trouble and came from off the pace in his debut maiden score at one turn. This suggests stamina, versatility, and an ability to show up even when things don’t go perfectly. And, with him hailing from the under-the-radar barn of Tom Drury, Lockstocknpharoah has a good shot to be a better price than if a horse with his record hailed from the barn of a super-trainer.

2026 Virginia Derby Undercard

The Virginia Derby is the ninth of 10 races at Colonial Downs on Saturday. The card features both sprint and route races on the dirt, including maiden, allowance, and five stakes-level races.

Aside from the Virginia Derby, the card also features the $250,000 Virginia Oaks, carded as the eighth race of the day, which offers its runners 50-25-15-10-5 points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. It means the winner is likely to earn a spot to run for the lilies, and others who run well may turn up in the Oaks as well if they run well in another prep or two. There is also the Royal New Kent Stakes, a dirt mile for older horses, and the Sandy Bottom Stakes, a dirt mile for older fillies and mares that was popular enough that the race split into two separate divisions.

Virginia Derby day is full of rich purses and quality fields. Be part of the action: make plans to watch all day at FanDuel TV and place your bets online at FanDuel Racing!

Colonial Downs

Colonial Downs opened on September 1, 1997, originally running both Thoroughbred and harness racing. Though the track is in New Kent, Virginia, about 25 miles outside of Richmond, it began its life under the auspices of the Maryland Jockey Club. That arrangement continued until 2005, and during that time, there was no racing in Maryland when Colonial Downs had its season.

The turf course was a well-respected summer destination, but times got tougher for Colonial Downs after the arrangement with Maryland ended in 2005. In 2009, it asked for only 25 dates. It ended Thoroughbred racing in 2013, and harness racing the next year.

It looked like the end, especially after the 2016 race dates were denied by the Virginia Racing Commission. However, Virginia passed a law in 2018 allowing historical horse racing machines. With that, things were looking up for Colonial Downs, which was purchased by a new owner. The track reopened for business in 2019, and has reestablished itself as a mid-Atlantic destination for horse racing.

The Arlington Million and the Beverly D., two of the most historic horse races for older turf horses, have been held at Colonial Downs since 2023. And, in 2025, the Road to the Kentucky Derby visited Colonial Downs for the first time in its history, with the Virginia Derby becoming a mid-March dirt race.

The course at Colonial Downs is a large, sweeping one, unlike most in the United States. The dirt track is 1 1/4 miles around, longer than every dirt track in the United States except for Belmont Park, and has a chute to run one-turn 1 1/8-mile races. Just inside the dirt course is the 180-foot-wide Secretariat Turf Course, the widest grass course in the country.

2026 Virginia Derby FAQ

Q: When is the Virginia Derby?

A: The 2026 Virginia Derby happens Saturday, March 15, at 5:10 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. It is the ninth of 10 races on the card.

Q: Where is the Virginia Derby?

A: It takes place at Colonial Downs in New Kent, Virginia.

Q: Who is the favorite for the Virginia Derby?

A: The 5-2 morning-line favorite is Buetane, a Grade 1-placed runner for Bob Baffert who always seems to find one or two too good in stakes company and is trying to get back on track here. He’ll take money for Baffert, most likely to the extent that he’ll be an underlay. Watch for action on Confessional (4-1), who is trained by the always-well-bet Brad Cox, and had strong form at Keeneland and Gulfstream before disappointing in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs.

Q: Who won the 2025 Virginia Derby?

A: The Virginia Derby was contested for the first time in 2025. American Promise, trained by the late D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Nik Juarez, won the inaugural edition. Juarez does not have a call in the 2026 edition.

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