Today's Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Week 4

Only four teams since 1990 have made the NFL playoffs starting 0-3. We've got enormous desperation in some spots in the NFL, and we definitely want to bet these teams that have their backs against the wall. The public has abandoned them, giving a free bit of value.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what we project from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns

Browns +7.5 (-114)

This is definitely a "spot" bet more than a "team" bet. Shockingly enough, I'm not all-in on the 2025 Cleveland Browns.

For as bad as Cleveland is, they may not be as bad as perception. Look no further than Joe Flacco's adjusted expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) if you adjust for drops, dropped interceptions, quality of defense faced, and pass protection. He's actually been a league-average passes (0.12 adjusted EPA/db) compared to his ugly raw -0.26 EPA/db.

Why does that matter? Things can change quickly in the NFL -- especially as the Green Bay Packers exit one of the league's best home field advantages for the road for the first time this season. With numberFire's 13th-ranked overall schedule-adjusted D, the Browns actually do have the ability to keep this game's score low and competitive.

The Browns' brutal early-season schedule doesn't lighten up in Week 3, but I'm actually encouraged by how they've hung around two divisional foes with playoff aspirations. That's only supported by an unbelievable recent betting trend in the NFL. Home underdogs getting more than 7.0 points are 18-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last 20 applicable games, per ActionLabs' consensus data.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

I highlighted this pick in our staff's Week 3 NFL expert picks.

It's probably hidden how great Tony Pollard's role is right now. The Tennessee Titans have just one offensive touchdown in two games, which has failed to showcase it.

Pollard has received 19.0 carries per game in two weeks across a meaty 89.3% snap share. The Indianapolis Colts near-perfect two weeks haven’t translated to their rush defense, ranking 26th in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics.

This game's spread (4.5) is curiously short, and it might because Pollard is positioned to help Cameron Ward with a balanced attack for the first time this season. However, because Ward has funneled just two targets his way all season, I think just the rushing prop is appropriate.

FanDuel Research’s Week 3 NFL projections expect 75.1 median yards from the tailback on Sunday.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Broncos Moneyline (+132)

I've been asking myself all week, "what would this line be if the Denver Broncos didn't take that penalty"?

A special teams formation error cost Denver the 2-0 start the Los Angeles Chargers enjoyed, but frankly, L.A's 2-0 resumé doesn't tell us a ton right now. The Las Vegas Raiders haven't looked offensively put together yet this season, and the same can be said for the 0-2 Kansas City Chiefs. Wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans would mirror that sort of "I don't know" if the Broncos had rightfully gotten them.

It might surprise you to learn that Denver (2nd) is still above Los Angeles (4th) in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defense rankings, too.

In L.A.'s first home game of the season, we'll see a problem that will be recurring in their quest for the AFC's top seed. This will be an orange crowd as it always is in SoFi, meaning that it's closer to a Broncos home game than baking in three-ish points for the listed "home" side.

Am I extremely confident the Broncos get this win? No, but the game should be lined closer to a pick 'em, and it's slightly widened all week with public money. I'll happily take the marginal bonus value here at the cost of forgetting Spencer Shrader's game-winner last Sunday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.