5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 9/21/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-115)
Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)

It's been a bumpy road for both starters in this game, but I trust them in their current matchups for clean starts.

Frankly, that's because the Atlanta Braves' and Detroit Tigers' offenses just aren't doing well in this split. In terms of team OPS against right-handers in the past 30 days, Atlanta ranks 20th in baseball (.694), and Detroit ranks 27th (.694).

We know the type of ceiling that Spencer Strider has. Strider actually enters this game on a streak of three quality starts in four tries, too. Facing the weaker offense, Detroit's Casey Mize can also keep pace. Mize's 3.79 xERA is actually in the 59th percentile of all MLB qualifiers.

Dodging Detroit's third-worst reliever skill-interactive ERA (4.27 SIERA) in the last 30 days is a must, but it's easy to support the guys starting on the bump.

As for a prop in this one, look no further than Mize's tiny projected strikeout total.

As a team, Atlanta's 20.1% K rate against righties is 17th-highest in MLB over the past month. It's fairly pedestrian. Mize's season-long 21.8% strikeout rate isn't special, but it is 24.1% since August 1st. He's topped eight in three of his last five starts, which is crazy upside against a not-so-special Braves order.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 4.72 median Ks from Mize in today's outing. The over is the side to back at plus money.

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

Kyle Manzardo to Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

I so badly wanted to fade Simeon Woods Richardson off his season-best effort to shut down the New York Yankees. The problem is the Cleveland Guardians are largely terrible, so he might be able to string something together.

The one bat I trust in Cleveland's order is lefty Kyle Manzardo. Manzardo's .263 average, .461 slugging, .197 ISO, and 44.1% hard-hit rate in the past 30 days against opposite-handed pitchers are easily the team's best combination of control and power at the dish. His low walk rate in these parameters (7.1%) helps this prop, too.

Woods Richardson's start against the Yankees seems pretty unsustainable. The Minnesota Twins' right-hander, otherwise, has let lefties slug .429 against him and launch 1.51 HR/9.

Our projections do show value on Manzardo's homer prop (+340) at a median projection of 0.25. I prefer to play it safe with bases -- especially considering its projection of 2.14 of those at plus money.

Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies

Rockies Moneyline (-116)
Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Alarm bells should be firing at full strength that the Colorado Rockies are favored today. This is just the third time all season, and they're 1-1 so far.

If it were ever going to happen, it's in these circumstances. Kyle Freeland (4.48 SIERA) is easily the staff's most effective pitcher, and the Rox get to attack a young hurler going through it right now in Caden Dana. Dana has been waxed for five-plus runs in consecutive starts, and his 5.63 xERA is frighteningly high due to elevated flyball (37.7%) and barrel (9.3%) rates allowed. Keep those bookmarked for later.

Against righties in the past 30 days, the Los Angeles Angels' team OPS (.720) isn't that far above Colorado's when facing righties (.692). The Rockies also might have the edge in the bullpen today; their 4.13 SIERA is slightly better than the Halos' 29th-ranked mark (4.32) over the past month, as well.

If there were ever a time Rockies fans went to the park expecting to compete, it is today. As most of the public will always fade them as favorites, the line makes sense.

However, let's pull a dinger prop out of here, too. Former Angel and current Rockie Mickey Moniak can help with that.

Though August was a cold spell, Moniak has six homers in the last 30 days. 23 of his 24 bombs have come against righties this year, so the handedness is largely a given. Considering a 46.8% flyball rate and 41.9% hard-hit rate with the platoon edge in the past month, it's no mystery how it happened.

Dana's sample is small, but he's coughed up 1.54 HR/9 to lefties. Hitters on that side of the dish have a hard-hit rate that's 9.1 percentage points higher.

FDR's projections expect the power binge to continue. At 0.29 projected home runs, we'd have expected him closer to +297 for a blast.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.