Today’s Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Super Bowl LIX Between the Chiefs and Eagles

Including the playoffs, there have been 284 total NFL games since the season kicked off on September 5th.

I'm not sure what's felt longer: the entire 21-week stretch of action to house those, or this 2-week layoff between the AFC Championship and the start of Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Why has it felt so long? Because you've read (or listened to) a billion previews of the game at this point, right? Who will win? What about player props? Taylor Swift is on the market, too. We even covered halftime guests and Gatorade colors.

Nonetheless, as was the case every Sunday in the regular season and through the playoffs in this column, I get last word by looking at FanDuel Sportsbook today. If you're just now crawling out from under a rock with intent of betting the biggest game of the year, how can we do so?

Best Bets and Player Prop Picks for Super Bowl LIX

Chiefs Moneyline (-116)

I told my colleague Jim Sannes on Tuesday's episode of Covering the Spread that you might be clinically insane to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs in this spot.

Kansas City has lived -- and not died -- in one-score playoff games for two years. It's probably time that we stop doubting them to do so again or waiting for regression to hit.

They lagged behind the Birds in both offensive (10th) and defensive (12th) efficiency, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They did so against the Buffalo Bills, too. As I mentioned entering the AFC Championship, my job isn't to point fingers as much as lay out facts; K.C. has been called for fewer penalty yards in 12 straight playoff games. That sort of disciplinary advantage speaks to coaching as much as it is helpful in one-score tilts.

Jim has the Eagles a slight favorite in this spot -- as most metrics should. That was the case with the San Francisco 49ers a year ago, as well. The reality is, with history of three straight Lombardi Trophies on the line, I'm just not backing Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts to be the coach-quarterback combo to turn aside the Chiefs' unflappable duo.

Patrick Mahomes Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Outside of a disastrous Super Bowl on the road in Tampa where both of his starting tackles were injured, Patrick Mahomes has been at his absolute best in Super Bowls.

He's averaged 267.8 passing yards in Kansas City's four appearances during his career. The low spot came against these Eagles (182) on a hobbled ankle two years ago, which -- in combination with Philadelphia's #1 rate schedule-adjusted pass D (per nF) this season -- might be why this line is suppressed below that average.

The reality, though? This Eagles team doesn't seem equipped to bother him.

According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, Philadelphia was just 26th in pressure rate this season. They were just 14th in the league in sacks (41.0) despite a tremendous secondary. Mahomes has torn apart bottom-10 teams in pressure rate this season, posting 0.17 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) -- fifth among QBs with at least five starts against them.

The Chiefs have only managed 3.1 yards per rush on the ground in the postseason, leaving plenty on Pat's plate. Expect him to answer the call as he always does.

DeVonta Smith Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

While the Chiefs hone in on Saquon Barkley, I'm looking at another former top-10 pick to potentially be the X-Factor in Super Bowl LIX.

DeVonta Smith has caught just four passes in each of Philly's first three playoff games this season, which is good for just a 19.4% target share. They haven't had to air it out often, though, when Barkley has four scampers of at least 60 yards in his last five games.

However, he could be of value from K.C's weakest point defensively: the slot. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most EPA/db to that area of the field this year, and Smith (277 snaps) had 114 more snaps from that area of the field than the next-closest teammate.

FanDuel Research's Super Bowl LIX projections expect 54.6 median receiving yards from Smitty, and this correlates well with the potential the Eagles are trailing late.

De'Andre Hopkins Over 1.5 Receptions (+126)

For years, DeAndre Hopkins has been saddled with loser organizations that, ultimately, were going nowhere. One of the 2010s best wideouts has a chance to become a Super Bowl champion, so expect his best.

On paper, it just doesn't seem like the Chiefs are going to use him, right? Hopkins played just 12 snaps (18%) in the AFC Championship against the Bills. This particular matchup might change that, though.

Hopkins (and Travis Kelce) are Kansas City's best targets against zone coverage. That's not surprising as savvy veterans, and in fact, Hopkins (23.5% target share) led the team in looks against five top-10 teams in zone rate this season. Philadelphia (74.5%) ranked 10th in the use of the coverage during the regular season.

Plus, in this massive spot, the veteran won't be rattled compared to a rookie like Xavier Worthy. I actually believe he'll be a larger part of the gameplan with time to prepare.

Our projections expect 1.75 median catches from "Nuk" in this one, so plus money is a solid proposition to wager that he makes a bit of an imprint on Sunday's big game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.