5 Biggest X-Factors for Super Bowl LIX Between the Chiefs and Eagles

David Tyree's helmet catch.

Santonio Holmes' toe-tap.

Malcolm Smith's pick-six.

Dexter Jackson's two interceptions in the first half.

Unlikely contributions can come from a variety of sources in a game with the magnitude of a Super Bowl. We'll remember unlikely heroes for decades.

We all know that Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley are going to have an impact in Super Bowl LIX's outcome, but who could potentially become that unlikely legend based on how these teams matchup? Where could this game be decided?

Here are five potential X-Factors for Sunday's big game.

Super Bowl LIX X-Factors

DeAndre Hopkins and Kansas City's Improving Playmaking On the Edge

The early-season narrative around the Kansas City Chiefs was that they were plain and beatable on offense. Then, Rashee Rice goes down with a torn LCL.

At that turning point, Kansas City actually significantly improved their team. By adding DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster for pennies, opening more touches for Marquise Brown off an early-season shoulder injury, and placing Xavier Worthy into a gadget role, the Chiefs now have multiple historically productive options for Patrick Mahomes.

K.C. has only played five teams that were top 10 in zone rate like the Philadelphia Eagles (74.5% rate), and Hopkins' target share (23.1%) was pretty enormous in those games. D-Hop's contributions in the Super Bowl could vastly outweigh his three postseason targets to this point.

DeVonta Smith as Philadelphia's Slot Receiver

If there is one weak point in this tremendous Chiefs defense, it might be the slot position.

According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, Kansas City allowed the sixth-most expected points added per drop back (0.33 EPA/db) to receivers targeted from the position on the field. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), both of their primary options in that area -- corner Chamarri Conner (62.8 coverage grade) and safety Bryan Cook (48.1) -- struggled in coverage this season.

That opens the door for DeVonta Smith, who led the Eagles in slot snaps (277) this season while Jahan Dotson (163) and Grant Calcaterra (154) moonlighted there as deep sleepers.

Smith's quiet postseason has included just 12 catches in three games, but a big day could be coming. FanDuel Research's Super Bowl LIX projections expect 54.6 receiving yards in the game.

Drue Tranquill, Nick Bolton, and the Chiefs' Back-Seven Tackling

This game could well come down to if Kansas City can just keep Saquon Barkley from erupting -- not entirely stopping him.

Barkley has four runs of at least 60 yards in his last five games. It's brutally difficult to win close NFL games giving up a score from the other side of the field regularly. Luckily for them, the Chiefs have as good a chance as anyone to limit Barkley to just chunk gains -- not the whole enchilada.

K.C. only allowed 42 "explosive" runs this year of at least 10 yards, which was the fourth-fewest in the NFL. They also allowed the fifth-fewest yards after contact.

It's dicey, but Barkley's longest rush prop (24.5) is quite high against a Chiefs rush D that's better at not breaking than bending. If they keep Barkley under this mark with solid back-seven tackling, it'll put Philly's offense in a bind they haven't experienced this postseason.

Josh Sweat, Nolan Smith, and the Eagles' Pass Rush

There was one specific reason the Eagles lost Super Bowl LVII two years ago.

Philadelphia led the NFL in sacks (70) by 15 that season but didn't get any -- not one -- against a then-hobbled Patrick Mahomes, allowing him to chew them alive for 38 points. This year, they'll need a superior performance.

The problem? The Eagles aren't really primed for success in that regard. They were just 26th in pressure rate, according to NextGenStats. That translated to just 41.0 sacks, which was 14th in the NFL during the regular season. Jalen Carter (4.5 sacks) also creates a bulk of the pressure opposite Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith -- K.C.'s three best linemen.

If Philadelphia can't get pressure on Mahomes, things could get ugly. Pat was fifth among NFL quarterbacks in EPA/db against bottom-10 teams in pressure rate this season (0.17).

Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott's Shaky 2024-25 Performances

For years, Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott have been money. 2024 didn't treat either kindly, and that's got both teams holding their breath entering the Super Bowl.

Butker missed four games due to injury, and his field-goal rate (84.0 FG%) suffered. It was the second-worst accuracy of his NFL career, including just a 2-for-5 effort from 50-plus yards. He also missed a pair of extra points after making all 38 tries a year ago. That took away a weapon from the Chiefs that they had enjoyed for several seasons.

As for Elliott, we've seen him struggle even in the postseason. He's missed three extra points already, and a 54-yarder went wide in the NFC Championship game. His 77.8 FG% was also the second-lowest rate of his career.

While neither has created a full-blown kicking crisis, the 1.5-point spread in this game looms large given the two's imperfections this season. This one could come down to an ill-timed shank.

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