3 Best Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl LIX Between the Chiefs and Eagles
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our NFL projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Picks
Travis Kelce Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-110)
It's become tradition for Travis Kelce to coast through the regular season before exploding come playoff time. He's combined for 307 yards across his last three SB appearances and is 15 yards away from becoming second in line for most receiving yards in Super Bowl history.
My favorite way to bet on Kelce -- and one of my favorite ways to get in on Super Bowl LIX in general -- is looking for him to catch a 20-plus yard reception against the Eagles.
Kelce reeled in a 20-yarder in 10 out of 18 games this season (55.6%), unearthing a bit of value in these -110 odds (52.4% implied probability).
More importantly, Kelce has logged a 20-plus yard catch in six of his last seven playoff games. That trend has been especially strong in the big game, with Travis notching at least one 22-yard catch in three straight Super Bowl appearances. That includes a pair of 20-yard receptions in Super Bowl LVII versus the Eagles.
Travis Kelce - Longest Reception
Since Marquise Brown has been active, Kelce is seeing a 23.4% target share and two downfield targets per game. Patrick Mahomes has thrown him 9.3 targets per Super Bowl. He feels inevitable, and I'm happy to see that we are getting his longest reception prop at a value.
Marquise Brown 60+ Receiving Yards (+230)
Hollywood Brown's output as a Chief has been meh. I think his biggest game in a Kansas City uniform comes in Super Bowl LIX.
Despite churning out 45, 46, 0, and 35 yards through four games since returning from a shoulder injury, Brown's role has been noteworthy.
He's seen a team-high 32.2% air yards share through four contests, and that was even with him running less than 50.0% of the routes in his first two games back from injury. This postseason, he's run 63.2% of the routes (second-most among KC wideouts) and has drawn a massive 40.7% air yards share.
Those untapped air yards could become realized this Sunday.
Mahomes has been targeting Brown downfield, and they just haven't been able to connect yet. Philadelphia's top-ranked pass defense -- one that is lethal against the long ball -- will look for that trend to stick.
However, I'm more than happy to bet on Mahomes in a dome. Brown's downfield shares and his 18.4 average depth of target these playoffs leads me to betting on his yardage prop in the alternate market. His baseline receiving prop is set at 40.5 with -110 odds on the over, but I like the idea of shooting even higher at these +230 odds.
Jalen Hurts Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Quarterbacks typically run the ball more in the playoffs, and few are better at doing just that than Jalen Hurts.
Hurts has exceeded 36.5 rushing yards in 9 of his last 12 games, missing by the hook once.
He ran for 70 yards in the Divisional Round and handled 10 carries in the NFC Championship. Two weeks of rest and recovery could aid his rushing potential, especially since he got dinged up in the Divisional Round.
Jalen Hurts - Rushing Yds
This season, the Chiefs surrendered the fourth-most attempts and the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs. In Super Bowl LVII, Hurts handled 15 carries for 70 yards against Kansas City. That's been a trend for him in high leverage games, as he's notched at least 34 rushing yards in all but two of his eight career postseason contests.
The line here is low enough for me to feel comfortable attacking it. Our NFL projections forecast Hurts to turn 9.3 carries into 42.8 yards this weekend.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.