Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 18

This article might be well worth your time today. Most player props have been down on FanDuel up until Sunday to adjust for the wild discrepancies in motivation here in Week 18.

By my count, just six teams have something to play for before Sunday night's epic showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. That creates a lot of lines on FanDuel that look funky -- or downright gross.

How do we weave through these gaps to find value? These are my favorite lines to do so.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Giants +2.5 (-105)

The Philadelphia Eagles' lone goal in Sunday's game might be to increase the price for the New York Giants to secure an elite quarterback prospect in the division.

Philadelphia is locked into the NFC's No. 2 seed, paving the way for all key starters, including a record-chasing Saquon Barkley, to sit. Even backup quarterback Kenny Pickett (ribs) won't play, and I'm not optimistic for Tanner McKee's long-term NFL future after a 53.4 QBR with the Stanford Cardinal in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Giants' key players -- including wideout Malik Nabers with a chance to still snatch the all-time rookie record for catches -- will play, and they fostered an insane amount of momentum after a Week 17 win where Drew Lock led the league, for a week, at 1.20 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db).

New York's competence is also an audition for Brian Daboll's coaching future in 2025 -- whether with Big Blue or not. Daboll has been money in these situations previously, sporting a 5-0 against the spread (ATS) record in Weeks 17 and 18 throughout his career.

I'll take a key number of 2.5, but the G-Men could very well win outright here as Daboll continues to prove he can get it done with decent quarterbacking.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Under 40.5 Points (-115)
Courtland Sutton Under 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

An inactive list is at maximum eight players in the NFL. I'm not sure which eight Kansas City Chiefs you can remove from the equation to justify this spread in the Mile High City.

Several K.C. players are putting tape down despite the 15-1 Chiefs having zero motivation to beat the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Sure, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chris Jones won't play a snap, but many members of numberFire's sixth-ranked schedule-adjusted defense will.

Ranked third in that same category, Denver should be able to bottle a Chiefs offense missing key pieces, too. Of course, the Broncos are eliminated with a loss by way of Cincinnati's win on Saturday, so they have everything to play for in this one. K.C.'s sky-high pass rate over expectation (5.4%) should plummet sans Mahomes.

This line moved against me from our Week 18 NFL expert picks, but professionals stick to their read -- if not double down -- even when the line moves. This game should be close and low-scoring; the Chiefs and Broncos' three meetings in the Sean Payton era have featured a combined 30.0 points per game.

In this game is a prime example of why you shouldn't blindly bet NFL incentives, as well.

Courtland Sutton needs 82 receiving yards Sunday to hit a $500,000 bonus, but there are quite a few yards of value on the under because of that.

Sutton is averaging just 67.2 yards per game in Denver's last five contests, and his target share (25.0%) in this time is more good than great. The playoff-hopeful Broncos probably have greater priorities than changing the offense to force-feed their wideout a bonus, too.

Add in K.C.'s stellar defense, and this line makes no sense. Blind to the narrative, our Week 18 NFL DFS projections expect just 61.3 median yards for Sutton. This is the hardest type of incentive to "force" rather than rushing yards or a touchdown because 12-plus targets can still go haywire. Don't expect the Broncos to design those.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Cardinals Over 12.5 Points in First Half (-110)

Some teams will lie down and quit in Week 18. They haven't had the season they hoped for, right?

The San Francisco 49ers fit that bill more than any other team. They were numberFire's only top-five team in preseason playoff odds to miss the dance and have been ravaged by injury, including Brock Purdy (elbow). Purdy will sit the final week of the year.

San Francisco's defense has been bleeding most of the second half of the season. S.F. is 26th in EPA per play allowed in the last five weeks, and they're down to 20th in nF's schedule-adjusted ranks. They're 27th against the rush. They'll face the Arizona Cardinals' 2.9% rush rate over expectation in this one.

Getting a pair of friendly numbers (13 and 14) on this team total over, I'm expecting Arizona to at least try in this first half due to their quarterback's incentives. Kyler Murray dictates the action for the Cardinals every play. He needs 50 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to cash a total of $750,000. Will that lead him to call his own number more often?

Arizona is averaging 14.5 first-half points per game at home this year, and the Niners have allowed at least this many first half-points in four of their last six games. One of the exceptions was in a full-blown thunderstorm.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $250 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you for today's action? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.