NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 18

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 18

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Chargers -4.5 (-110)

Total: Chiefs-Broncos Under 39.5 (-106)

As two of numberFire's top-six defenses collide, the Kansas City Chiefs will pull the parachute with most key offensive starters in line to sit. Carson Wentz should mean Kansas City's second-highest pass rate over expectation (5.4%) is significantly reduced. I'm expecting K.C. to put forth a limited effort here to ensure the youthful Denver Broncos -- and not the Cincinnati Bengals -- are the team headed to face the Buffalo Bills as the AFC's 7 seed.

Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs +10.5 (-115)

The Chiefs are rolling out the JV squad with nothing left to play for, whereas the Broncos need a win to secure a playoff berth, which should theoretically make this an easy win for Denver. Still, for all his faults, fill-in QB Carson Wentz is a former NFL starter, so this KC offense shouldn't completely fall off, and the Broncos will still have to deal with a defense that ranks sixth in numberFire's metrics. Further, the Chiefs have effectively had a mini-bye because they last played on Christmas, giving Andy Reid and friends extra time to prepare. Chances are the Chiefs still lose, but it might be closer than expected.

Total: Commanders-Cowboys Over 44.5 (-104)

Player Prop: Jordan Addison Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Patriots' Moneyline (+136)

Total: Jaguars-Colts Over 43.5 (-115)

Though both sides are eliminated from the playoffs here, I think we could get some points in an indoor game. This Jacksonville Jaguars versus Indianapolis Colts matchup pits numberFire's No. 29 and No. 32 pass defenses against one another, and we've seen both Mac Jones and Joe Flacco be frisky in the right matchups. After watching Drew Lock torch this Colts secondary last week, it's not hard to imagine Jones finding similar success following a 20-point outing last week.

Annie Nader, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs +10.5 (-115)

Total: Saints-Bucs Over 43.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Justin Jefferson Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-115)

Jefferson has logged a 29-plus yard reception in 50% of his games this season, which is lower than the 53.5% implied probability on these -115 odds. However, he has caught a 27-yard pass in 75.0% of his games, so he’s been darn close to clearing this prop at an awfully high rate. A close spread (2.5), high total (56.5), indoor conditions, and a banged-up Detroit Lions secondary will all be working in his favor this Sunday.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Chargers -4.5 (-110)

Total: Dolphins-Jets Under 38.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Jared Goff Over 279.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Goff is averaging 319.5 passing yards per game over his last two, and he logged 11.2 yards per passing attempt and 0.40 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) in his last matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. Since Week 11, Goff sports an elite 0.59 EPA/db. Going over 279.5 passing yards feels more than obtainable with Minnesota allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game. Earlier in the week, Goff’s prop was only 271.5 passing yards. A significant shift could be hinting at a huge night ahead, as we pointed out in our bold predictions for Goff to log 325+ passing yards (+240).

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Chargers -4.5 (-110)

Total: Commanders-Cowboys Over 44.5 (-104)

Player Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown to Record 8-Plus Receptions (+124)

Over the last three matchups between the Vikings and Lions since Brian Flores became the defensive coordinator in Minnesota, St. Brown has tallied eight-plus receptions in two of those games while he snagged seven catches in the other contest. With the Vikings deploying plenty of five-man fronts on defense -- which has led to teams struggling to run the ball against them -- the Lions can use quick passes to St. Brown as an extension of the run game as Minnesota's defense is giving up the most receptions (240) and third-highest target rate (21.6%) to WRs, via NextGenStats.

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs +10.5 (-115)

Total: Vikings-Lions Under 56.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Jameson Williams 70-Plus Receiving Yards (+136)

This is in conflict with my liking the under for the game, but luckily for me, the total is so high that it could go under even if Williams breaks off some splash plays. Williams has hit this mark in 7 of 13 games he has played (omitting the one game Sam LaPorta missed), including 4 of 6 at home. He now has seven-plus targets in five of his past six games, and giving with his speed that type of volume is an alt-market dream.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.