Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 16

Week 16 in the NFL brings a few divisional rematches. I dove into some 2024 trends in divisional rematches on Friday's Covering the Spread.

Of the ones that stood, the team that covered in the first game was just 11-10 against the spread (ATS) in the rematch. An interesting trend with totals was that whatever the outcome (over or under) in the first matchup, 16 of the 21 outcomes flipped in the second rematch. Don't overreact to what you see.

Are some of the best bets outside of the divisional games, though?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+120)

After weeks of merely suggesting, I'm demanding and pleading to anyone that will listen that it's Trey McBride's week.

McBride now sits alone in league history at 87 receptions to open the season without a receiving touchdown, which would be amazing for any position. As a massive tight end who is built to score close to the goal line? Good grief.

Taking away the position silo, McBride's 12.8 targets per game lead the entire NFL over the last five weeks. He's Arizona's leading receiver still hasn't scored.

This matchup certainly feels like a now-or-never proposition. The Carolina Panthers have allowed the most end-zone targets (12) and receiving touchdowns (10) to opposing tight ends this season.

Kyler Murray is aware that #85 needs one soon, and he should have his chances if Carolina's results against tight ends this season are any indication.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Under 42.5 Points (-102)

On a chilly, rainy day in Seattle, two of the NFL's best defenses in the second half of the season should battle to a low-scoring contest.

In the last six weeks, the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks are both top-five units in Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play allowed. That's numberFire's EPA metric.

Overall for the season, these have been units not to be trifled with. Minnesota is second in points per game allowed (18.0), and Seattle has crawled into the top 15 (22.4) despite a slow start.

Five of the Seahawks' eight home games this season have fallen short of the total, and the Vikings are just 5-9 to the over this season.

These are under-oriented teams that will have to navigate tough weather. These two teams' brisk adjusted pace could be significantly stifled on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Moneyline (+108)

We've gathered a trend with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill's Miami Dolphins. We want to back 'em in South Beach.

Since the start of last season, Miami is 9-7 against the spread (ATS) at home but a measly 6-9 ATS when the visiting team -- especially dipping into cold weather. That won't be an issue as they host the San Francisco 49ers.

In a disappointing year for the Niners, I believe Miami has them covered given their current rosters. The 49ers are numberFire's 13th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense compared to the Dolphins (23rd), but the unit is missing Trent Williams (ankle) and Isaac Guerendo (foot) this week in addition to their laundry list of long-term absences.

Jaylen Waddle (knee) won't play for Miami, but his 15.5% target share in 2024 isn't quite the current absence it once was.

On defense, the Dolphins (11th in nF's rankings) have bested the Niners (13th) to this stage and will benefit from the home crowd.

Don't trust this current version of Brock Purdy to go on the road with his fifth-string running back and beat a plus defense -- especially when Miami's offense has been so good in their building.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you for today's action? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.