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NBA DFS Picks: Sunday 12/22/24

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NBA DFS Picks: Sunday 12/22/24

If you're looking to have some fun this basketball season, NBA DFS on FanDuel has you covered.

With NBA DFS, you can put your hoops knowledge to the test and ride with players you think will go off in a given night.

To help you along the way, we've got a bunch of tools here at FanDuel Research. Specifically, our NBA DFS projections, powered by numberFire, update throughout the day to reflect current news.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA DFS Picks for Today

Guards

Top Priorities

CJ McCollum ($7,300)

If the New Orleans Pelicans have any prayer of keeping Sunday's game with the Denver Nuggets close, it's likely a huge effort from C.J. McCollum.

Relative to this salary, productivity hasn't really been the issue for him this season. With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram off the floor, he's posted 39.1 FanDuel points (FDP) per 36 minutes behind a team-best 28.8% usage rate.

The problem has been NOLA's ability to provide those minutes, losing 6 of their last 10 by double digits -- and some by a lot more than 10.

Formulating these three game scripts is crucial for building a lineup today because, if the Pels stay close, McCollum and friends could be extreme value. If they don't, he'll probably bust your lineup.

Andrew Nembhard ($5,000)

The evil ambiguity in the Indiana Pacers backcourt is just about dead.

Andrew Nembhard logged a season-high 33 minutes in his seventh game back from injury on Thursday, which was a good indication he'll resume the full role that he had for most of 2023-24.

The case for him becomes extremely straightforward from there. He posted 28.6 FDP per 36 minutes last season, and it's stayed around that mark in small shifts this year (27.9).

We can have discussions about his upside on a larger slate, but he and Ochai Agbaji ($4,600) are the only guards with a pulse at or below $5,000 on this short one.

Others to Consider

Tyrese Haliburton ($8,600)

Nembhard's low usage rate (16.2%) seems to helping Tyrese Haliburton, too. Hali has topped 41 FDP in five of his last seven games, coinciding with Nembhard's return. I see Indiana's visit to the Sacramento Kings as easily the best stacking candidate on the slate, per the game's 236.5-point total.

Fred VanVleet ($7,200)

Who doesn't love a good revenge narrative? Fred VanVleet pays his old Toronto Raptors club a visit on Sunday, but it's also a worthwhile fantasy spot. Toronto is allowing the 11th-most FDP per game to opposing point guards.

Wings

Top Priorities

Christian Braun ($5,200)

Though requiring some projection, Christian Braun has an easily conceivable path to elite value on Sunday.

Braun returned from a back injury to just 24 minutes on Thursday, but with all seemingly good on Denver's injury report, his season average for minutes (34.3) could be back on the table in NOLA.

With that the case, the Pels have allowed the ninth-most FDP per game to opposing two guards, and Braun's low usage rate (16.2%) makes him quite predictable for counting stats.

FanDuel Research's NBA DFS projections love C.B. in this one. They're expecting 28.4 FDP in 35.5 minutes -- both right around his season averages. The third-year player is also Denver's most likely starter to see run in a blowout.

Dillon Brooks ($4,900)

Is Dillon Brooks...good...now?

The longtime 3-and-D instigator has caught fire for the Houston Rockets in recent games, so I don't know how you avoid him if you're trying to jam in Nikola Jokic on this short, three-game slate.

Seeing at least 33 minutes in his last five games, Brooks has posted at least 21 FDP to get into the neighborhood of value for this salary. Some of his best efforts have been explosive, though. The former Oregon star has topped 39 FDP twice in this span.

Shooting 41.7% from three in December, Brooks has turned into a real offensive weapon. He's easily the best (and possibly only) full-time player below $5,000 anywhere on the slate.

Others to Consider

Scottie Barnes ($9,100)

Scottie Barnes is in a tough matchup to score -- as I pointed out in today's best NBA bets. However, he works well in a contrarian build fading Jokic with the assumption that I'm wrong. The stat-stuffer broke 50 FDP in 4 of his 10 contests before getting injured, so this salary is far too low on a normal night.

Herbert Jones ($5,600)

I wrote up Herbert Jones yesterday, but his salary spiked $300. That's a more significant increase for a low usage player (15.4%) whose team is also in much more probable conditions to get blown out. I'll pass on him for Braun, Brooks, and Agbaji where possible.

Bigs

Top Priorities

Myles Turner ($6,500)

Some of you stars-and-scrubs truthers are stunned I didn't write up Nikola Jokic in this spot, but a balanced build makes plenty of sense today. One reason is Myles Turner.

Indiana-Sacramento's minuscule spread and tight total could be truly the only competitive game of the day, and Turner's achievable upside inside of it is appealing. The big man has topped 40 FDP in 7 of his 28 games this season -- even with some duds along the way.

Enter a Kings team that always lacks size, allowing the 10th-most boards and 12th-most blocks to opposing centers.

Our projections flat love him today, expecting 35.2 FDP in 31.0 minutes. Especially when taking the Nuggets to blow out the Pelicans in my best bets, I believe a pivot off Jokic is wise.

Jabari Smith ($5,700)

I'm going to start calling Jabari Smith "Mr. Floor".

Smith has topped 25 FDP in 8 of his 12 games since returning to a full role, exceeding 31 minutes played in all but one of them. Crossing 32 FDP three times in this stretch, I don't want to discount him from being "Mr. Ceiling", either.

He and Alperen Sengun could wreck a Toronto interior down on size without Jakob Poeltl. Even with him, the Raptors are a bottom-10 team in defensive rebounding rate (70.2%) and paint points per game allowed (49.6).

Other than Toronto's crafted timeshare at center, we're without a full-time value play at the big spots today. Smith is as close as you can get without clogging the center spot.

Others to Consider

Nikola Jokic ($12,300)

Our projections do love Jokic (62.3 expected FDP) at this salary, but finding the requisite value plays to get to him is leaving a lot of higher-upside stars with a chance at extreme value on the table. Add in a threat that we only see three quarters of "Joker", and it's a pass for me.

Yves Missi ($5,500)

It's rare I basically don't even consider our projections' top value score, but Yves Missi has to worry about foul trouble and clogs the center spot away from both Jokic and Turner. I'm not interested, but his value is absolutely present in theory.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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