Super Bowl Passing Props to Target

Finally, Super Bowl LVIII is just a couple of moons away.

With the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs embarking on Southern Nevada, the big game is very near. For the title clash at Allegiant Stadium, San Francisco is a 2.5-point favorite over Kansas City in a contest with a 47.5-point total, per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Come Sunday, we'll see two of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL going head-to-head. HCs Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid are brilliant innovators on that side of the football.

When it comes to the ensuing quarterback battle, many view reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes versus former seventh-round draft pick Brock Purdy as a "David versus Goliath" scenario. Regardless, both signal-callers are just a game away from the Lombardi Trophy.

For this article, let's stay with the starting QBs and have a look at FanDuel's Super Bowl LVIII passing props. Being that this will be our last bit of NFL action until the snow thaws, we should do well to find football value while we can!

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Super Bowl LVIII Passing Props

Patrick Mahomes Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-110)

At the ripe age of 28, "Showtime" Mahomes is already entering his fourth Super Bowl. Of course, he and the Chiefs approach the big game as defending champions, looking to repeat (a feat no team has accomplished since 2004-05).

With that said, Mahomes has a significant Super Bowl sample size (three games) to reflect on. Noticeably, his TD-INT ratio is a bit down here at 5-4, but the Texas Tech Red Raiders alum has put up solid yardage in the big game. Coming into Sunday, the two-time league MVP has averaged 246.0 passing yards per contest when playing in February.

In Super Bowl LIV, Mahomes threw for 286 yards against these same 49ers.

Super Bowl LVIII in Vegas will be the first big game Mahomes plays under controlled (optimal) weather conditions, which is always beneficial for signal-callers. Taking place indoors at Allegiant Stadium, No. 15 will be at a venue he is well familiar with -- K.C. makes an annual trip to "Sin City" to take on the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders.

Mahomes could be in a favorable spot when going against San Francisco's secondary. In the 49ers' recent NFC title bid, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions gashed S.F. for 273 yards through the air. Meat was left on the bone for Motor City in that contest, too, as the Lions were subject to second-half drops.

Equipped with game-changers in the receiving corps like Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes is playing premier football right now. From there, look out for speedy Super Bowl veterans Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman to make a timely play.

Lastly, the head referee for Super Bowl LVIII is Bill Vinovich. Notably, his crew recorded just 24 offensive holding calls this past season -- tied for lowest in the NFL. That could translate into Mahomes having essential extra time to operate.

Brock Purdy Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-124)

Second-half Super Bowl woes or not, 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan is one of the greatest offensive play-callers of the era. With that said, I believe he thoroughly understands the moment and personnel on hand.

Considering rushing king Christian McCaffrey is in the backfield, San Francisco had the second-best rushing attack this past season, per numberFire. On that same scale, the Chiefs' defense against the run scored fifth worst. If the Niners are able to lean on their zone rushing scheme (especially up the middle), Purdy's pass attempts will likely be at a premium.

Largely, Purdy was amongst the top quarterbacks in many categories this year (yards, TD, QBR, YPA), but the Iowa State Cyclones alum was 20th in attempts. In 2023, that translated to just 27.75 pass attempts per game for "Mr. Relevant."

There's also the looming fact that Purdy is taking on a Chiefs secondary that is arguably tops in the league. Back at numberFire's NFL power rankings, K.C. boasts the second-most prominent passing defense. That should further motivate Shanahan to give McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel the football on the ground behind fabulous run blockers (and first-team All-Pros) like left tackle Trent Williams, tight end George Kittle and fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

We'll need to keep a precise eye on the game action for this passing prop.

In San Francisco's offense, there are often multiple players moving in myriad directions before the football is snapped. Keep in mind that shovel or "touch" passes to players on shotgun jet-sweep motions are logged as attempts here. Still, any ball that Purdy may throw backward in relation to the line of scrimmage -- whether in trickery or on a swing route to the backfield -- does not count as a pass attempt.

All things considered for this matchup, I like Purdy to go under 30.5 passing attempts (-124 odds) in Super Bowl LVIII.

Super Bowl LVIII Betting Odds

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• National Anthem: Reba McEntire
• Halftime: Usher Raymond
• Head Referee: Bill Vinovich
• Game Spread: SF -2.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: SF -130/KC +110
• Total: 47.5

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.