Home Run Picks Today: Raleigh, Tatis and a +500 Home Run Prop

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+290)
• Chase DeLauter to Hit a Home Run (+500)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Bets, Picks

Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+290)

Reds at Mariners, 3:41 p.m. ET

It’s been a heck of a falloff for Cal Raleigh after his insane 2025 campaign. But among the afternoon games today, Raleigh is my favorite home run pick.

Brady Singer is getting the ball for the Cincinnati Reds. While Singer has been getting solid results of late, he’s striking out only 19.2% of hitters for the season and is having a difficult time with lefty bats, allowing a .377 wOBA and 2.30 jacks per nine in the split.

Although the numbers are ugly, Raleigh has been better against RHPs (.279 wOBA) than LHPs (.220). He is still getting the ball in the air a ton, though, generating a 63.0% fly-ball rate against right-handers. Of his 10 homers this year, eight have come versus righties.

Once Singer is out of the game, Raleigh will see a Reds bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP.

Chase DeLauter to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Twins at Guardians, 6:41 p.m. ET

Chase DeLauter‘s power surge at the start of the campaign has proven to be a fluke. However, there are reasons to back him to go yard today.

A matchup with Bailey Ober is a pretty nice spot for DeLauter. Ober is a low-strikeout pitcher (18.1% K rate) who owns a 4.65 SIERA. He has a homer problem, mostly against left-handed hitters, getting tagged for 2.09 dingers per nine in the split.

After hitting five long-balls through his first 27 plate appearances this year, DeLauter has registered only six home runs the rest of the way. Despite the lack of bombs, there’s still a lot to like in his profile as he’s got a .354 wOBA with a 13.6% strikeout rate. Against RHPs, he’s put up a 41.0% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate.

On top of all that, the Minnesota Twins‘ relievers rank next to last in bullpen xFIP.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Padres at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

This is my favorite HR pick for today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is in Atlanta and will face southpaw Martin Perez, the owner of a 4.61 SIERA and 18.6% K rate. Perez has been ice cold of late, struggling to a 7.43 ERA and 8.13 FIP across his previous three starts.

Tatis’ down 2026 season is mostly due to poor luck. His homer-to-fly-ball rate of 8.9% is well below his career average of 21.2%. His expected wOBA of .354 looks a lot better than his actual .331 wOBA. He’s been great in this split, racking up a .382 wOBA versus left-handers.

On a warm day in Atlanta, the ball should carry well, and I like these +420 odds on Tatis to leave the yard.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.