Sony Open in Hawaii: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii for this week's Sony Open in Hawaii -- at Waialae CC in Honolulu.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Waialae Country Club Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 70
• Distance: 7,044 yards (around 160 yards than the average par 70)
• Average Fairway Width: 34.8 yards (56th of 86 courses)
• Average Green Size: 7,100 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Bermuda
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -18, -23, -21, -11, -22
• Recent Cut Lines: -2, -5, -4, +1, -2

Waialae Country Club Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Total Strokes Gained
• Birdie or Better Rate

Wind is a big defense for Waialae, and if the wind is down, scores can go low.

The course plays short, the fairways are fairly wide, and the rough isn't penal, so driver is not necessarily a key this week. A glance at the recent winners -- Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Na, Cameron Smith, and Matt Kuchar -- also back up that theory.

Golfers who don't heat up with the putter can still play well, evidenced by Kim's win last year while ranking 38th in putting but 1st in approach. Still, putting generally separates at a birdie-fest.

Best Golfers at Waialae Country Club

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

Sony Open in Hawaii Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on either my simulation model or other factors -- including my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Russell Henley

To Win (+2200)

Henley jumps out most at the top of the odds board this week, via the simulation model. He was just T52 last week at The Sentry with weak iron play. He's a great long-term iron player, though, and ranks fifth in that department over the past 50 rounds. The simulations like him, as well.

Keegan Bradley

To Win (+6000)
To Finish Top-10 (+500)

This is a nice number for Bradley, who has a good all-around game right now (top-60 in all four strokes gained stats over the past 50 rounds and top-20 in irons and putting, specifically). Bradley has finished top-12 here in two of the past four years. The top-10 number is appealing, as well.

Andrew Putnam

To Finish Top-20 (+250)
To Finish Top-10 (+550)

Putnam is a top-15 iron player and top-30 putter over the past 50 rounds, and his driver (100th in off-the-tee strokes gained) is usually what lets him down. But at Waialae, that's not necessarily vital. A lack of distance can keep Putnam in the hunt, and we saw that last year with a T4 and in 2022 with a T27.

Adam Svensson

To Finish Top-20 (+260)

Svensson has a pretty good all-around game for a field like this: he's top-55 in all four strokes gained stats while specifically sitting top-30 in both ball-striking stats. We've seen him here three times since 2019. He's finished T43, T7, and T41 but has played great with the irons in every start.

Matthew NeSmith

To Finish Top-20 (+600)

These are long top-20 odds for NeSmith, whose game is dictated by good iron play and moderate putting splits. He has two top-25 finishes since October in four starts and has gone T32 and MC at Waialae. That's an interesting profile at +600.

Sony Open in Hawaii Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Sony Open in Hawaii DFS Studs

Russell Henley ($11,600 | +2200)

Henley's irons were cold last week at The Sentry when he finished T52, but that was a big deviation from his usual arc. The last time he had a similar performance with his irons (a missed cut at The Open), he finished T2 at the Wyndham two weeks later with dominant ball-striking.

Henley benefits at courses where driver isn't vital, and he has success at Waialae. He won here in 2013 and was solo second in 2022; he enters with three straight top-35s at the course.

Corey Conners ($10,900 | +2500)

Conners has the best form at this course over the past five years and has finished T39, T3, T12, 11, and T12 at Waialae.

He's largely striped the irons -- but also putted well on these greens. We can always take note of that, especially for someone like Conners.

The putter is cold lately, yet the ball-striking ranks him first in the field over the past 20 rounds.

Others to Consider:

• Tyrrell Hatton ($11,900 | +1800)
• Eric Cole ($10,700 | +3000)
• J.T. Poston ($10,400 | +3300)

Sony Open in Hawaii DFS Mid-Range Plays

Harris English ($9,700 | +3500)

Another golfer who benefits when driver isn't a must is Harris English. English ranks 80th in the field over the past 50 rounds in strokes gained: off the tee. He's top-25 in irons and putting, though, with plus around-the-green play, as well.

We've seen English overperforming with the putter lately, so that's a bit of a concern, yet the long-term tee-to-green game is there. He also has played the course well historically.

Andrew Putnam ($9,400 | +5000)

As mentioned already, Putnam is a good iron player and putter right now, and he's the type of golfer who might benefit from a course that de-emphasizes driver play. He's played well at the course, too.

Lucas Glover ($9,300 | +5500)

Glover leads the field in strokes gained: ball-striking over the past 50 rounds in the field, and his lack of distance (90th) won't matter a ton this week. Glover's putting can come and go, and his two wins during August were fueled by a dialed-in flat stick.

He's got largely poor form at Waialae but did finish T5 in 2022, and his form now has him back toward a five-year peak.

Others to Consider:

• Si Woo Kim ($9,900 | +3500)
• Adam Svensson ($9,500 | +4500)
• Keegan Bradley ($9,300 | +6000)

Sony Open in Hawaii DFS Value Plays

Luke List ($8,700 | +9000)

List is more of a current form play than a course form play, but that's always the route I'm siding with because of its predictiveness. List has finished top-25 in three straight events and did pick up a win in October at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

He's putted really poorly on the greens at Waialae and has missed five of six cuts at the course. That's reason for concern, yet the salary is low enough to account for the volatility.

Ben Kohles ($8,600 | +11000)

The 33-year-old Kohles is a Korn Ferry Tour graduate who led the KFT in points in 2023 and scored two wins.

That success translated over to the PGA Tour by way of a T5 at The RSM Classic in November. Kohles finished second in the field in strokes gained: approach in that event, so that helps us buy in.

We've also seen him play Waialae recently when he finished T27 in 2022.

Others to Consider:

• Patrick Rodgers ($8,700 | +8000)
• Nick Taylor ($8,500 | +7500)
• Erik Van Rooyen ($8,300 | +12000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.