Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Cowboys at Giants)

Thursday night's matchup features an NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. Per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites, and this matchup comes in with a 45.5 over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Malik Nabers ($15,000) has enjoyed absurd volume to begin his NFL career, making him an easy click at MVP. After a solid if unspectacular Week 1, Nabers has scored 26.7 and 24.2 FanDuel points over the past two games while logging a 50.8% target share, 68.4% air yards share, and 55.6% red zone target share. He's the key weapon in this Giants offense, and the Cowboys are numberFire's 20th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense through three weeks.

Per our NFL DFS projections, Dak Prescott ($16,000) is pegged for the game's top score, and he's fresh off scoring 32.9 FanDuel points in Week 3. However, that score was aided by a rare rushing TD and chucking it 51 times in a negative game script, and Dak scored below 15 FanDuel points in each of the previous two weeks. He hasn't been particularly efficient thus far, averaging -0.14 expected points added per drop back. Still, Prescott was one of fantasy's top quarterbacks in 2023, and Dallas has a 25.5-point implied team total despite being on the road.

Prescott's top wideout, CeeDee Lamb ($14,500), hasn't quite had a spike week yet after scoring 11.1, 17.0, and 6.7 FanDuel points. Most notably, his usage has been disappointing, coming into this contest with a far from dominant 19.8% target share and 25.1% air yards share. That being said, he's projected for a slate-high 9.6 targets, and his receiving yardage prop line is also the game's highest mark (79.5 yards).

Daniel Jones ($13,000) was more or less left for dead after a terrible Week 1, but he's bounced back for 18.3 and 19.4 FanDuel points over the last two. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to opposing QBs, and Jones still possesses some dual-threat upside, averaging 6.3 carries and 22.3 rushing yards per game with a 44.4% rush share inside the 10-yard line.

Dallas' defense has been shredded for the most FanDuel points allowed to running backs, and it ranks 32nd in adjusted rush defense. This is a great spot for Devin Singletary ($12,000), who's averaging 20.7 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game with a 72.7% snap rate. Daniel Jones is danger to vulture rushing scores, but this is certainly the right matchup for Singletary to shine.

Flex Targets

Ezekiel Elliott ($11,500) -- The Giants are 20th in adjusted rush defense, but Elliott is really tough to justify at this salary after logging just a 20% snap rate in Week 3. While that was likely due to a negative game script, we've seen his adjusted opportunities decline every week (14, 12, and 7), and it's not like he's dominating touches near the goal line (40.0% red zone rush share), either.

Brandin Cooks ($10,500) -- Cooks is coming off back-to-back duds and enters the day with an underwhelming 12.4% target share. He still ran 74.5% of the routes last week, though, so it's not like he's been completely phased out.

Wan'Dale Robinson ($10,000) -- Despite Nabers hogging so many targets, Robinson has still managed a 20.3% target share over the last two weeks. He's projected for the game's third-most targets (6.3).

Jake Ferguson ($9,500) -- After missing a week due to injury, Ferguson came back and led the team in targets (11), receptions (6), and receiving yards (95) in Week 3. It's sure looking like he's Prescott's No. 2 option behind Lamb.

Brandon Aubrey ($9,000) -- Aubrey has scored 21, 17, and 11 FanDuel points this season and has yet to miss a kick. He continues to be one of fantasy's top kickers and could be busy again given the Cowboys' high implied team total.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST ($9,000) -- The Dallas defense has struggled, but if the bad version of Daniel Jones shows up, they could be a factor. It's easy to forget this unit racked up six sacks and two interception in Week 1 versus the Cleveland Browns.

Jalen Tolbert ($8,000) -- Tolbert has carved out a bigger role over the past two weeks with a 15.6% target share and 83.2% route rate over that span. Given the sizable difference in salary, he's the preferred play over Cooks.

Rico Dowdle ($8,000) -- Dowdle has played more snaps than Elliott over two straight games while notching 17 and 18 adjusted opportunities. While he's yet to reach double-digit FanDuel points, he's firmly in play as a value option.

Darius Slayton ($7,500) -- While Slayton owns a 78.2% route rate, he's seen 10 targets total in three games (9.3% target share). He likely needs a touchdown to have any shot at the optimal lineup. He's questionable with a thumb injury.

Get ready for Thursday Night Football! All customers get one No Sweat Token for a Same Game Parlay on the Giants vs Cowboys NFL game happening September 26th. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.