Should We Avoid Patrick Mahomes in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts?

Patrick Mahomes is pretty universally considered the best real-life quarterback in today's NFL and is a big reason why the Kansas City Chiefs have been perennial contenders since he took over as their starting quarterback in 2018.

Over that seven-year span, the Chiefs have made at least the AFC Championship game in all seven campaigns and lifted the Lombardi Trophy three times. Individually, Mahomes has taken home plenty of hardware, too, winning AP NFL MVP twice and Super Bowl MVP three times.

However, despite all this success, Mahomes' fantasy stock has taken a hit these past two seasons. From 2018-2022, he consistently averaged 20+ fantasy points per game (26.1, 20.9, 25.4, 22.0, and 25.2) and finished as the overall QB1 in 2018 and 2022. In the last two campaigns, he's averaged just 18.4 and 18.3 points, though, and he finished as the QB11 in 2024, the worst fantasy finish of his career.

Since Mahomes broke out in 2018, he was the first or second QB drafted in fantasy drafts from 2019-2023, and he was still a top-three pick last season, per FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data. In early 2025 drafts, he's now dropped outside the top 50 overall as the sixth QB off the board, making this his lowest ADP in seven years.

Still, that remains a fairly high cost for a player who's performed like a low-end QB1 in back-to-back seasons. Is Mahomes someone to fade at his ADP? Or should we be buying low in 2025?

Patrick Mahomes 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Mahomes' two-year decline in fantasy production has coincided with Travis Kelce no longer being the force of nature he once was, and the departure of Tyreek Hill three years ago still stings, as well. Between injuries to multiple wideouts and a 35-year-old Kelce, the lack of dynamic personnel is likely why Mahomes dinked and dunked his way to a modest 6.3 aDOT and 6.8 yards per attempt in 2024.

We also saw the flaws of Kansas City's offensive line on full display in a forgettable Super Bowl performance where Mahomes was made to look very human, getting sacked six times and throwing two picks.

Despite all this, there's room for optimism entering 2025.

Last season, Mahomes still ranked third in pass attempts per game (36.3), which is only a tick below his career average (37.2), so it's not like he wasn't slinging it. He was still fairly efficient, too, as he averaged 0.11 expected points added per dropback -- the same mark as Joe Burrow despite the two having wildly different 2024 fantasy campaigns.

Circling back to the key injuries that were alluded to, both Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown missed the majority of last season, and having them healthy alongside an emerging Xavier Worthy should make this passing attack far more potent and dangerous than the 2024 version. A stronger wide receiver corps should also make Kelce more effective as a complimentary piece rather than a focal point. Multiple offseason reports have stated that the Chiefs want to be more "explosive" and push the ball downfield as Mahomes did earlier in this career, which should be music to ears of potential fantasy drafters, as well.

Kansas City's offensive line could still be a work in progress after making multiple changes, but they could be a middle-of-the-pack unit, which might be good enough for Mahomes to get by with improved pass catchers. PFF ranks the O-line 20th while Sharp Football Analysis places them 18th.

Finally, while Mahomes is by no means an elite runner, he's rushed for 300+ yards in five straight seasons, so he can occasionally pop for big gains on the ground in a given week. It's an underrated element of his game that gives him a slight edge compared to other traditional pocket passers. Since 2020, he's finished 10th, 6th, 9th, 7th, and 12th in rushing yards among QBs.

Where Should Mahomes Go in Fantasy Drafts?

The top of the fantasy quarterback landscape looks pretty set in stone this season. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts form a "big four" of dual-threat QBs, all of whom combine tantalizing rushing ability with enough passing upside to make a run as this year's overall QB1. You can nitpick who should be drafted first at the position, but it's hard to go wrong with any of these guys when paying up at quarterback. All four are typically being drafted within the top 40 overall picks.

The one pure passer who's in this same ADP range is Burrow, who finished as last year's QB3 after leading the NFL in passing attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns. Armed with the lethal combo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in a pass-heavy offense, Burrow could absolutely crush it again this season, and he has the shortest odds to lead the league in passing yards (+550) and passing touchdowns (+480).

However, as a player being picked in the same range as the above four -- sometimes as high as the third QB -- this price is basically expecting an exact repeat of last season's gaudy numbers. That's a dicey bet to make, as even the best passers have historically come back to earth following a career year. Despite leading in all those passing categories, it still wasn't enough for Burrow to finish as the 2024 QB1, either.

Past those five, we finally come to Mahomes, who tends to get drafted a couple of rounds later. This is also the range where we see Baker Mayfield pop up, who's seen his draft stock rocket upward following easily his best NFL season. Personally, I would rather take a chance on Mahomes bouncing back than buying high on Mayfield.

Mahomes has finished as fantasy's top QB twice, and he's probably the only one outside of the top five who realistically has that output in his range of outcomes, which does make him intriguing if you're optimistic that he can and will throw the ball downfield this season.

However, we've already seen that the downside tends to be lower than his dual-threat brethren, which is why my leaning is to see whether he drops in a given draft. In half-PPR and PPR formats, Mahomes can dip outside the top 70 or even top 80 picks, making him much less of a commitment compared to the capital needed to snag that Allen/Jackson/Daniels/Hurts tier. It's even possible one or two leaguemates bypass Mahomes for someone like Mayfield, Bo Nix, or Jared Goff, as all three averaged more fantasy points than Mahomes last season.

Overall, though, QB6 feels like the right slot for Mahomes, and the ingredients should be there for him to return to his former fantasy glory.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.