Will Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler Start for the Saints in Week 1?

It's usually a cut-and-dry situation when a team drafts a quarterback in the top 40: they'll either start right away or sit behind an accomplished veteran.

"Option B" evaporated for the New Orleans Saints after the draft. Derek Carr's abrupt retirement due to a shoulder injury disrupted any sort of transition plan after the team drafted Tyler Shough with its second-round pick (No. 40 overall) in April. It doesn't sound like that was a huge surprise to those in the building as part of an odd tenure for Carr in "The Big Easy", though.

The end result is that Shough and second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler are seemingly in a two-man race for the starting quarterback job in 2025. Veteran Jake Haener is still here and will supposedly get opportunities, too.

FanDuel actually has NFL Week 1 starting quarterback odds for teams with ambiguity at the position, including New Orleans. Here's how they look as of July 15th:

Will the Saints roll with Shough or Rattler to start Week 1? Who should start Week 1? Could NOLA make a move for someone else? Let's meet the contenders and make a verdict.

Which Quarterback Will Be the New Orleans Saints' Week 1 Starter?

Tyler Shough

It's not a huge surprise to see Shough a prohibitive favorite in this market even if some questions remain.

Current head coach Kellen Moore was in place when the team drafted him in Round 2 compared to Rattler, a Round 5 pick from the Dennis Allen era. That's a huge difference in investment and draft capital to New Orleans' current decision-makers.

How is it even up in the air then, you ask? Well, Shough is among 30 NFL second-round picks that haven't signed their rookie deals over disputes about guaranteed money. This is a systematic issue in the NFL more than any sort of indictment of the Saints' relationship with him.

A holdout would reduce Shough's practice time in training camp and open the door for Rattler (and perhaps Haener).

To me, being further behind the eight ball is a problem when my baseline on Shough wasn't high to start. I left him outside my top-100 prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft, and my colleague Jim Sannes echoed that sentiment from an analytical perspective when marrying Shough's college production with his age.

"Nonsense" is the word that comes to mind that New Orleans would spend a Day 2 pick on a near-26-year-old rookie quarterback and not start him right away, which is likely why the odds sit as they do. They'd love to put the contract stuff behind them and entrench Shough as the Week 1 starter.

Spencer Rattler

It's not often that, from a team perspective, the veteran with experience is seemingly lagging behind in the competition. They'd prefer to have the rookie sit and learn.

However, that experience doesn't mean much if it was as tumultuous as Spencer Rattler's rookie campaign in 2024. According to Next Gen Stats, his -0.32 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) were worst in the NFL among quarterbacks to drop back at least 200 times.

There is undoubtedly a little visual sizzle to Rattler's game. He's got impressive arm talent to make unique throws:

But then, there's the bad, which is a real struggle with footwork, routine accuracy, and pocket presence that resulted in 3.1 sacks taken per appearance:

Rattler will have a few "stans" until the day he retires from the highlights, but there's so much to clean up from the end of last season to become a decent, viable option at quarterback for the Saints. There's a reason they took Shough.

A Wild Card?

The "wild card" here is not Jake Haener. Sorry, Fresno State Bulldogs fans everywhere. It's a disgruntled veteran that might leap at one last chance to be an NFL starter.

Under contract, it's unlikely the Atlanta Falcons would be willing to help their NFC South rivals, but Kirk Cousins is widely regarded as the most reliable name that could be available for someone. Even in a 2024 we'd label a disaster, Cousins' -0.01 EPA/db was better than Bo Nix, Geno Smith, and C.J. Stroud. He was bitten by the turnover bug in the middle of the year, but it's plausible the 36-year-old pocket passer still has something left in the tank.

That would be an option if Cousins was granted his release. This could be a major reason why Kirko Chainz is still in Atlanta.

If things go south with Shough's contract and Rattler is unbearably poor, Carson Wentz and Teddy Bridgewater -- who is perhaps fed up with Florida high school athletic commissions -- are the most accomplished free agents on the board.

Former New Orleans QB Jameis Winston is a productive yet wild ride that has experience with all of the team's best weapons, too. It's possible he may not be content to sit as the New York Giants QB3 all season.

Final Verdict: Tyler Shough (-310)

Though a veteran like Cousins or Winston could probably step into this room and, clearly, be the best option, it would be irrational for the Saints to sway away from getting the largest sample of Tyler Shough as possible.

There really is no downside to riding Shough for as long as he's healthy in 2025 -- and even turning to Rattler if he's not. New Orleans owns its first-round pick and would be right back in the mix for a rookie quarterback in next year's draft if Shough struggles or battles injuries as he did in college.

Is now a bad time to mention that offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier's son, Garrett, is one of the nation's top quarterback prospects for the local LSU Tigers?

Of course, there's also the upside. If The Ringer's Todd McShay is correct about his glowing reviews of Shough, the Saints could have their franchise quarterback. There's not a deficit of talent around him with Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed coming off excellent seasons before injuries ended all of them.

Kellen Moore now has experience in three consecutive seasons with Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. He wants to find out as quickly as possible if Shough's physical traits translate to give him anything close to what those guys bring.

Don't be surprised if Shough ends up breaking off the holdout of second-rounders before most. His career longevity would likely benefit from being as prepared for his rookie season as possible.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.