Should Nico Collins Be a First-Round Pick for Fantasy Football in 2025?

Fantasy football drafts continue to happen at a torrid pace this time of year, providing us a chance to see who is typically going in the first round. While players like Ja'Marr Chase and Bijan Robinson are consistently being taken at the top of drafts, Nico Collins is someone who is sneaking into the first round of certain leagues.

According to FantasyPros' Consensus ADP (average draft position) for half-PPR formats, Collins holds an ADP of 12.3 (WR7) at the moment. The six wideouts being selected ahead of Collins -- at least on average -- are Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

With Collins cementing himself as one of the premier receivers in the NFL in recent years, let's take a look at his 2024 production and discuss his outlook for the 2025 season to determine whether or not he's worth taking in the first round of drafts.

Nico Collins' 2024 Stats

After totaling 70 receptions, 927 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns on 126 targets in his first two NFL seasons, Collins was a third-year breakout, logging 80 catches, 1,297 receiving yards, and 8 receiving touchdowns en route to being the WR9 overall and WR6 in fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues in 2023. Collins would follow that up by tallying 68 receptions, 1,006 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns in 12 games a season ago, earning him the status of WR22 overall and WR7 in fantasy points per game.

Among wideouts with 50-plus targets in 2024, Collins posted the 17th-most yards per reception (14.8), 21st-most yards after the catch per reception (5.3), and 3rd-most yards per route run (2.87), per PFF. Collins' overall finish and production last season deserves some context, as the big-play receiver missed five games due to injury, and he played on 71.0% or more of the offensive snaps in only nine games.

Across the nine contests where he was on the field for 71.0% or more of the offensive snaps, Collins led the Houston Texans in target share (28.0%), air yards share (39.3%), red-zone target share (33.3%), end-zone target share (58.8%), and yards per route run (2.81) by a wide margin, via NextGenStats. And in Houston's two postseason outings, Collins proceeded to record the sixth-most receptions (12), fourth-most receiving yards (203), and fifth-most yards per route run (2.82) among receivers in the playoffs who saw five-plus targets.

Nico Collins' 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Besides Collins being healthy entering the 2025 campaign, Tank Dell suffered an unfortunate knee injury in Week 16 of last season (likely causing him to miss the entire upcoming season), and the Texans added rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, along with acquiring veteran Christian Kirk via trade. Despite Higgins, Noel, and Kirk being players who could garner targets in Houston's new-look aerial attack, Kirk has missed 14 games over the last two years, and it remains to be seen what roles Higgins/Noel carve out.

As for Collins, he's proven he's a stud receiver whenever he's on the field, and he's built a stellar connection with C.J. Stroud in their first two seasons together. The only concern for the skill players on the Texans is the fact that their offensive line allowed the third-most sacks (54) in 2024 likely got even worse after trading All-Pro Laremy Tunsil.

At the same time, Houston did move on from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik by replacing him with Nick Caley, who has been on Sean McVay's coaching staff as the tight ends coach and pass game coordinator in recent years. The hope is that Caley can inject some life into the Texans' passing game and help Collins evolve even further by allowing him to move around a bit more to generate mismatches, as he's accrued just an 18.2% slot rate throughout his career.

Assuming Collins can remain healthy, his metrics and production in recent years is more than enough to warrant him being a first-round pick in leagues that reward points for receptions.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.