Can Jahmyr Gibbs Feast in Fantasy Football Even With David Montgomery Healthy in 2025?

In half-PPR formats, Jahmyr Gibbs finished with the third-most fantasy points among non-quarterbacks in 2024 behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley, so it isn't surprising to see him among the first players coming off the board in drafts this summer.

According to FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data, Gibbs is a top-five overall pick with only Chase, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, and Barkley typically going ahead of him.

There no question that Gibbs is supremely talented and could have another stellar season upcoming.

However, when taking a running back this high, we're usually talking about a featured back getting the lion's share of backfield opportunities, and that isn't the case for Gibbs, who will still be competing for touches with teammate David Montgomery. The truth is that most of Gibbs' best fantasy performances came in weeks when Montgomery was injured last season, so a healthy Montgomery could theoretically cap Gibbs' ceiling.

Does that mean Gibbs is going too early in drafts? Or is he someone who absolutely warrants a top-five pick in 2025?

Jahmyr Gibbs 2024 Season Recap

In 2024, Gibbs averaged the 3rd-most scrimmage yards per game (113.5), yet was just 13th in touches per game (17.8). Despite this gap in workload, he finished with 1,929 scrimmage yards behind only Barkley (2,283) and Derrick Henry (2,114) and led the NFL in total rushing/receiving touchdowns (20).

Unsurprisingly, that elite efficiency showed up across plenty of advanced metrics. Among RBs with at least 100 carries, Gibbs ranked first in expected points added per carry (0.12), first in the percentage of rushes for 10+ yards (16.4%), and second in expected yards per carry (4.8), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

While a good chunk of credit must go to a Detroit Lions offensive line that PFF graded second in run blocking, it's pretty evident that Gibbs is a special back, and he's still just 23 years old.

However, it's Montgomery's presence that likely prevented him from an even more impressive campaign.

Last season, Montgomery suffered an MCL injury in Week 15, causing him to be limited or inactive the rest of the season. Including the playoffs, Gibbs would go on to score 25.9, 23.4, 24.3, 43.5, and 32.5 half-PPR points over this span.

Across those five weeks, he averaged 29.9 half-PPR points and 155.2 scrimmage yards off 17.2 carries and 6.4 targets per game. In comparison to that, he averaged 16.6 points, 102.2 scrimmage yards, 13.7 rushes, and 3.2 targets over his other 13 games. Two of Gibbs' other best fantasy performances (30.0 points in Week 7 and 23.4 points in Week 12) also involved Montgomery getting banged up mid-game, further showing the veteran back's impact on Gibbs' upside.

Jahmyr Gibbs 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

While Montgomery isn't going anywhere, we should still feel optimistic about Gibbs' 2025 prospects.

There's been a lot of offseason buzz pointing toward another big season -- and perhaps an even bigger one. Head coach Dan Campbell specifically named Gibbs as one of the players standing out in OTAs, and new running backs coach Tashard Choice has stated that the "sky is the limit" for for the third-year back.

That's all well and good, but what should really pique our interest is that Gibbs said he's lining up more often as a receiver this offseason, which could open the door for more opportunities even when Montgomery is on the field. As is, Gibbs finished last season with the seventh-most targets (63) among running backs, so any potential bump in targets could place him among the elite pass-catching backs.

Outside of the possibility of an improved role, Detroit's O-line should still be a plus unit. Although PFF thinks the offensive line will take a step back and ranks them 13th this offseason, that still places them in the top half, and sites like Sharp Football Analysis (3rd) still view them as an elite unit.

Further, Montgomery has missed three-plus games to injury in three of the last four seasons, so it's reasonable to expect him to be unavailable at some point. This will also be Montgomery's seventh NFL campaign as he enters his age-28 season, and any drop in effectiveness could quickly lead to Gibbs earning a big share of the pie.

Even if Montgomery ultimately stays healthy and plays the exact same role as last season, Gibbs' efficiency keeps his floor high, and he has less of a chance of completely failing us like some other RBs going in the first round.

Barkley is coming off a huge workload (482 touches including the postseason) that could come back to haunt him this year. Similarly, Henry is 31 years old and has been first or second in NFL carries in five of the last six seasons. Christian McCaffrey has missed double-digit games in three of the past five seasons. Ashton Jeanty should be awesome but still hasn't taken a single NFL snap.

When viewed through that lens, despite an imperfect situation, Gibbs is arguably the safest back outside of Bijan Robinson. This is further backed by Gibbs ranking as the overall RB2 in FantasyPros' consensus projections, which is particularly noteworthy when considering he could be even better if Montgomery gets hurt or takes a backseat.

Gibbs is definitely deserving of being a top-five pick, and there's a strong case for him being drafted as the second RB off the board in 2025.

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