Rays vs. Guardians Picks Today: MLB Best Bets and Props for ALCS Game 3

Rays vs. Guardians Picks Today in Summary

• Guardians Moneyline (-130)
• Under 6.5 Total Runs (-104)

The ALCS shifts to Cleveland on Thursday with the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians tied at one game apiece.

Cleveland will hand the ball to Gavin Williams while Tampa Bay counters with Griffin Jax. Williams finished the regular season with a 3.76 ERA while Jax posted a 3.53 ERA, 8-10 record, and 25.3% strikeout rate over 112 1/3 innings.

First pitch at Progressive Field has been moved up to 1 p.m. ET because of expected rain later in the day.

Which bets stand out today for this matchup?

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. Bets in this article may be pulled from our other MLB content for today.

Rays vs Guardians MLB Best Bets and Picks (Game 3)

Guardians Moneyline (-130)

I'll side with the Cleveland Guardians at home behind Williams.

Williams' 3.76 regular-season ERA doesn't fully capture how dominant his swing-and-miss stuff can be. He struck out 248 hitters across 184 1/3 innings during the regular season, and his strikeout rate was 33.2% with a 15.0% swinging-strike rate.

He's been even better in October. Williams has allowed only two earned runs while striking out an eye-popping 24 across 11 2/3 postseason innings — good for a 1.54 ERA.

The Tampa Bay Rays present a difficult matchup because this lineup doesn't strike out excessively. Junior Caminero, for example, finished the regular season with just an 18.4% strikeout rate while hitting 42 homers and producing an .885 OPS.

Still, Cleveland has the more appealing starting-pitching ceiling, and the Guardians' bullpen gives them another advantage if Williams can hand over a lead in the middle innings.

At -130 odds, Cleveland is my preferred side.

Under 6.5 Total Runs (-104)

This looks like another spot where pitching can dictate the game.

Williams' postseason dominance gives Cleveland an excellent foundation, but Jax shouldn't be overlooked on the other side. He recorded a 3.53 ERA and 25.3% strikeout rate in 2026, moving into the starting rotation and thriving.

Cleveland's lineup has also been more dependent on timely hitting than overwhelming offensive production. José Ramírez had a down regular season by his standards, batting .235 with a .320 on-base percentage and .368 slugging percentage, while Chase DeLauter was one of the Guardians' more productive hitters with an .820 OPS.

There is one concern with the under: Williams threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings in relief on Sunday, meaning he's coming back on shorter rest than usual. That could shorten his outing, but Cleveland has enough bullpen depth to compensate.

With two pitchers capable of missing bats and a relatively low-scoring environment expected, I prefer the under at 6.5.

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MLB Betting Frequently Asked Questions

What are MLB player prop bets?

MLB player prop bets are wagers on specific statistical outcomes tied to individual players during a game — not on which team wins or loses. You might bet on how many strikeouts a starting pitcher records, whether a shortstop gets a hit, or how many total bases an outfielder accumulates.

Because they are isolated to a single player's performance, props let you apply focused knowledge about matchups, recent form, and ballpark conditions rather than predicting the full game result.

What types of MLB player props are available?

FanDuel offers a wide menu of MLB props. The most common categories include:

• Pitcher strikeouts
• Batter hits
• Home runs
• Total bases
• RBIs
• Stolen bases
• Pitcher outs recorded

How do MLB player prop bet odds work?

MLB prop odds use the standard American (moneyline) format. A negative number shows how much you must wager to profit $100. A positive number shows how much a $100 bet returns in profit.

• -110 odds — bet $110 to win $100
• +130 odds — bet $100 to win $130
• -200 odds — bet $200 to win $100

What does "total bases" mean as a prop bet?

The total bases prop counts the bases a batter earns from hits in a single game:

• Single = 1 base
• Double = 2 bases
• Triple = 3 bases
• Home run = 4 bases

Walks, hit-by-pitches, and stolen bases do not count. A typical total bases line is set at 1.5 or 2.5. Betting over 1.5 means you need at least a double, or two singles.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.