Ravens at Bills Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for the Divisional Round

On Sunday at 6:30 P.M. EST, the Baltimore Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.

The postseason is a fun time to play single-game NFL DFS on FanDuel.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Ravens at Bills NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Derrick Henry ($16,000)

This matchup is strength on strength with Derrick Henry taking on numberFire's fifth-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense.

However, Henry has topped 22 FanDuel points (FDP) in four straight games against top-15 squads in those same rankings behind several long touchdowns. I think there are still concerns when Henry's snap rate (59.7%) was so low last week in a positive script where he was having success.

If the Ravens get in a hole early, Henry could be phased out of this matchup entirely. He had five games this year below 15 FDP. That's why I'm leaning to rank both quarterbacks ahead of him as an MVP candidate.

Josh Allen ($15,500)

Two of the NFL's three best rushing threats at QB (save Jayden Daniels) in one game leave no shortage of fun at MVP, but Buffalo's main man is my top choice.

Only Saquon Barkley has topped 100 yards against the Ravens this season, meaning more could be on Josh Allen's plate than usual in this one. The Bills' -2.2% pass rate over expectation (PROE) was already solid in a rush-heavy year, ranking 13th in the NFL.

Allen is +105 to score with his legs in this one, and he's posted at least 24 FDP in seven of his last eight playoff games. He rises to these moments.

Lamar Jackson ($15,000)

On the flip side, I'm a bit nervous about Lamar Jackson in this one but still prefer him to Henry.

At the very least, Buffalo's secondary seems gettable. Only the New York Giants surrendered more Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back in the final 10 games of the regular season than Buffalo (0.31), and Bo Nix had his moments despite living in third-and-long situations.

Jackson's MVP-level of play this year can't be ignored, but he's also completed fewer than 55% of his passes in four of his six playoff appearances. Headed to Buffalo with poor weather on the horizon isn't a slam-dunk spot to be comfortable.

Our Divisional Round NFL DFS projections expect Jackson to this game's top fantasy scorer (22.6 FDP), but I prefer the other signal-caller.

James Cook ($13,000)

If you're considering James Cook at MVP, you must take his role for what it is and not expect more.

Cook's snap rate (45.7%) was poor again on Wild Card Weekend, but another touchdown erased those concerns with 21.0 FDP. The problem? Baltimore's outlier of a rush D hurts him in a considerable fashion when 87.7% of his touches came on the ground this season. Ty Johnson is the pass-catcher.

I know the tailback's upside still includes a pair of rushing scores, but the supremely close goal-line looks will head Allen's way. I'm leaning toward fading Cook altogether.

Flex Targets

Khalil Shakir ($11,000)

Buffalo's one consistent target is Khalil Shakir, who doubled up anyone on the team with six targets last week. The Ravens' improved secondary since moving Kyle Hamilton is no easy day at the office, so Shakir's low-aDOT (5.2 this season), schemed looks are appealing.

Mark Andrews ($10,500)

Mark Andrews wasn't needed in last week's rout of Pittsburgh, but he saw 8 targets in a closer Week 18 finale against the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore's tree of targets narrows quickly without Zay Flowers (knee), and the tight end is arguably the go-to guy.

Dalton Kincaid ($10,000)

Quietly, the Ravens allowed the 10th-most targets to tight ends this season, so this isn't the worst matchup for Dalton Kincaid. However, rostering the sophomore likely means passing up on a stars-and-scrubs build for a guy who topped 10 FDP just twice all season.

Amari Cooper ($9,500) and Keon Coleman ($8,000)

As additional deep-ball dart throws, Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman combined for just six targets and ran 50.0% or fewer of the routes last week. They'd theoretically benefit from Buffalo being forced to the air, but the poor weather is also a downgrade to downfield passing.

Rashod Bateman ($9,500)

Rashod Bateman has six touchdowns in his last six games, and he's seen 5.0 looks per game since Flowers went down despite last week's blowout. While Baltimore's defacto WR1 should be a popular choice, a path to failure for the chalk is obvious should he be held out of the end zone.

Justin Tucker ($9,000) and Tyler Bass ($9,000)

Both quarterbacks don't turn the ball over, so I'm avoiding defenses in this one, and kickers are a tough sell because of the weather, too. It doesn't help that Justin Tucker and Tyler Bass both ranked outside the top 25 in FG% this season. I'm sure that won't be a factor in a near pick 'em, right?

Isaiah Likely ($7,500)

Adding to Andrews' case, Buffalo allowed the ninth-most targets to tight ends themselves. That opens the door for both of Baltimore's big guys after Isaiah Likely (4) saw more targets than Andrews (3) last week. Either have multi-touchdown upside in lineups leaning toward a shootout.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.