3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 1/18/25

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals

Penguins Moneyline (+152)

After cashing as road underdogs last night, the Pittsburgh Penguins are back in action on Saturday night. This time, they’re heading to the nation’s capital for a classic rivalry showdown against the Washington Capitals. The betting market has taken a firm stance against the Pens, but that disdain is mostly undeserved.

The Penguins are coming off a deflated effort but have been trending positively. Including Friday’s win, the Pens have outplayed their opponents in three of their past four, relying on improved defensive zone coverage. Across the four-game sample, no opponent has attempted more than six quality chances. Further, Pittsburgh is giving up a paltry average of 4.0 per game over that stretch. That’s an edge they can wield against the faltering Capitals.

Washington’s offense has been stagnant over its recent sample. The Metropolitan Division leaders have eclipsed eight high-danger chances only once over their past four outings, averaging just 7.8 per game. Not surprisingly, that limited production has impacted their output with Washington cashing just 10 goals. Six have come at five-on-five.

The Penguins’ goaltending situation may force bettors to seek refuge in the Capitals. Still, Pittsburgh’s analytics advantage gives them a puncher’s chance in this one. Don’t be surprised if it goes to overtime, but we like the Pens’ chances in Washington.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks

Oilers Moneyline (-170)

Things are coming to a head on the West Coast. The Vancouver Canucks have completely unraveled, losing consecutive lopsided affairs with deteriorating metrics. The optics are so ugly that head coach Rick Tocchet has started calling out some of his best players publicly, trying to motivate his team to improve. While it may help the Canucks put together an improved on-ice product, we don’t think it’ll help their chances against the Edmonton Oilers.

The Canucks have been utterly outmatched every time they step onto the ice lately. They’ve been outplayed in four straight games, precipitating a 42.5% expected goals-for rating. Vancouver can’t get anything going on either end of the ice, failing to out-chance their opponents in any of those four contests. That puts them at a significant disadvantage against an Oilers team roaming freely in the attacking zone. 

After a tepid stretch, Edmonton has finally found its footing in the offensive zone. The Oilers have exceeded 11 quality chances in three of four, totaling 49 opportunities across the sample or 12.3 chances per game. That’s been a driving factor in their soaring expected goals-for rating. The Oilers have outplayed their opponents in nine straight, producing an eGF rating of 62.1%.

Edmonton’s advantages are clear. They’re outperforming their opponents by a substantive margin, and the Canucks have been cannon fodder every time they step on the ice. We like the Oilers’ chances of making it five straight wins.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens Moneyline (+118)

The Toronto Maple Leafs got off the schneid with their most recent effort, albeit with persistent underwhelming metrics. That puts them at a deficit as they embark on an inter-provincial road trip to take on the Montreal Canadiens.

They may have scored four goals last time out, but the Leafs’ offense has been struggling. Toronto has been held to seven or fewer high-danger chances in four of its previous five, correlating with lackluster scoring. Across the five-game sample, the Maple Leafs have tallied a minuscule 11 goals with only seven coming at five-on-five. Worse, they haven’t eclipsed two goals in any of those contests.

Conversely, the Habs’ offense has been trending in the opposite direction. Montreal has seen a dramatic increase in scoring over its recent schedule. The Canadiens have recorded 17 goals across their five most recent games. Their five-on-five output has been far superior to Toronto’s with the Habs tallying 10 goals on a 9.8% shooting percentage.

Montreal’s scoring advantages should be even more pronounced at home, particularly considering the Leafs’ goaltending struggles. Toronto’s netminders have combined to stop just 84.0% of shots over their last four games.

Altogether, we see an edge in backing the Habs as home underdogs on Saturday night.

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