Premier League Betting: Best Bets and Player Props for Matchweek 16
The English Premier League is off and running for the 2024-25 campaign.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?
Premier League Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Matchweek 16
Leicester City at Newcastle United (10 a.m. ET Saturday)
Anthony Gordon to Score or Assist (-130)
Newcastle are expected to roll over Leicester on Saturday at St. James' Park. The Magpies are -340 to win and -106 to go over 2.5 goals. Given that, I like Anthony Gordon to score or assist at -130.
Leicester have struggled defensively in their return to the top flight, conceding 30 goals through 15 EPL matches. In seven away fixtures, they've allowed 18 goals. They shipped four goals at Brentford in their previous away game and allowed three at Manchester United in the away game before that one.
Newcastle have been difficult to predict this season, but their attack is rounding into form. Over their last five league matches, the Magpies have scored a total of nine goals, including five across their last two matches. The last time they played at home, Newcastle netted three goals versus league-leading Liverpool.
Gordon has mustered only three goals and one assist through 13 EPL starts. But his expected numbers are better, with the winger tallying 4.8 expected goals (xG) and 3.2 expected assists, per FBRef's xG model.
With Newcastle at home in a match they should control, Gordon is an appealing bet in the goal-or-assist market.
Aston Villa at Nottingham Forest (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
Draw (+230)
Aston Villa are having a standout campaign in the Champions League, sitting fifth in the table with a great shot at automatically advancing to the next round. But Villa's UCL campaign has negatively impacted their EPL form, and I think we see that play out Saturday at Nottingham Forest.
Villa just played Tuesday night in Germany. In Aston Villa's previous five matches right after a UCL match, they have won just once, and that was a victory over Wolves, a team in the relegation mix this season. In their other four matches in the split, Villa have totaled one goal, although two of those were tough away matches against Chelsea and Liverpool.
In short, Villa haven't shown they can successfully handle the demands of balancing midweek UCL matches alongside a league campaign.
It doesn't help Villa in this one that star striker Ollie Watkins is looking iffy to play.
Plus, Forest are pretty darn good. Nuno Espírito Santo's side sits fifth in the league table and has given up only six goals across seven home EPL matches.
Forest (+165 to win) is actually a slight favorite over Villa (+170). While I don't mind taking Forest on the moneyline, I prefer to bet on the match to be a draw at longer odds than Forest's moneyline.
Tottenham at Southampton (2 p.m. ET Sunday)
Tottenham Over 2.5 Goals (+138)
After a solid start to the season, Spurs have hit a brutal run of form. I like them to bounce back Sunday at Southampton.
Tottenham have won only once in their past eight matches across all competitions. That win was a 4-0 triumph at Manchester City, because of course it was.
But Spurs' attacking numbers still look good as Tottenham have the fifth-most xG in the league (28.2). They are tied for the fourth-most road xG (12.2), and their hard-pressing style should make them a really difficult matchup for a Saints team that is usually committed to playing out from the back.
Southampton have been the worst team in the EPL this year and also rate out as the worst defensive side. They've conceded a league-high 34.6 xG through 15 matches. They've especially struggled versus the top teams. Through five matches against the big six, the Saints have let up at least 2.6 xG in all five matches, resulting in 15 goals conceded in the split. In their last home match against a big team, Southampton gave up five goals to Chelsea.
For all the issues with Spurs, their attack is usually something we can count on. This is a nice matchup for Tottenham and a golden opportunity for them to get back on track. Their attack can feast at St. Mary's.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.