Patriots at Bills Single-Game FanDuel NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football

We'll see if Mike Vrabel's New England Patriots are ready.

New England's 2-2 start gets a massive step up in competition -- in primetime -- on Sunday night as they visit the undefeated Buffalo Bills. As of now, the Patriots are 8.5-point underdogs, and this game's total (49.5) suggests a high-scoring tilt:

For those unfamiliar with single-game NFL DFS on FanDuel, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, but beginning in 2025 on FanDuel, their salary also increases 1.5 times.

Here are players worth considering for tonight's game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Patriots at Bills NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Josh Allen ($21,300 MVP/$14,200 FLEX)

Josh Allen has already torched this Sunday night slot once in 2025, posting 41.8 FanDuel points (FDP) in Week 1 against a Baltimore Ravens we've now learned to be terrible. Plus, Baltimore thrust Allen into a negative script, which has been the only one Buffalo has faced this season. As an 8.5-point favorite, Allen's salary is a little concerning when he's averaging "just" 20.2 FDP per game over his last three as the Bills have proven to be content to take the air out of the ball and bleed clock when leading.

James Cook III ($19,500 MVP/$13,000 FLEX)

Whatever Allen loses in positive scripts is James Cook's gain. Cook has scored a touchdown in eight straight regular season games, which is now the NFL's longest streak. He's seen a whopping 36.5% of the Bills' total red zone opportunities, and Cook has been his usual efficient self on the ground at 1.25 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c), per NFL's Next Gen Stats. If looking for a reason to fade him, New England's rush defense is fifth-best in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, which could shift more onto the passing game than usual.

Drake Maye ($18,900 MVP/$12,600 FLEX)

I love a contrarian dart at Drake Maye in a format where most will choose a member of the undefeated, popular Bills at MVP. Buffalo is just 16th in nF's schedule-adjusted defense rankings, and as an 8.5-point underdog, the dual-threat QB will likely have plenty on his plate. The Pats are already third in pass rate above expectation (3.2% PROE) as is because of their shaky running back corps. If there's a concern here, it's that this is Maye's first ever primetime start of any kind. Is he ready for the moment?

Flex Targets

Hunter Henry ($8,200)

Both teams having a messy pass-catching hierarchy makes the flex positions a guessing game. At the offense's fourth-highest salary, Hunter Henry is an easy choice from the Pats when he leads the team in targets per game (6.0). We saw Henry blow up with two touchdowns in Week 3, and Buffalo has quietly been chewed up by tight ends while also yet to face an elite one. They rank 25th in FDP allowed per target (1.56) to the position despite not allowing an end zone target to this stage.

Keon Coleman ($7,600)

FanDuel Research's resident prop queen, Annie Nader, is backing Keon Coleman in her Patriots-Bills best prop bets, and if there is a buy-low candidate in Buffalo's hierarchy, it's the second-year wideout. Coleman shined with 21.2 FDP on 11 targets in Buffalo's only negative script, but he's just battled to produce in these games with heavy leads, totaling 13.5 FDP since Week 1. If the Patriots just simply keep this game competitive, Coleman's breakout season could finally be unpaused.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,200)

Apologies to TreVeyon Henderson's fantasy managers, but Rhamondre Stevenson is still the Patriots' best running back. After a pair of Week 3 fumbles, Stevenson (58.3%) went right back to dwarfing Henderson (29.2%) and Antonio Gibson (18.8%) in snap share, and this was in a 36-point win where New England would have most likely been to dust off the rookie. Henderson (-1.05 RYOE/c) just hasn't been good this season, and Josh McDaniels knows it. Stevenson likely leads the way again Sunday until he potentially fumbles.

Kayshon Boutte ($5,800)

I'm just not as comfortable as others declaring Stefon Diggs as "back" after beating up on the Carolina Panthers. Diggs still ran just 16 routes to Kayshon Boutte's 14, and Boutte played three more snaps in the red zone. They're now at one solid game each, but the difference is Boutte's salary is in the bargain bin. I'm also pretty sure Sean McDermott and the Bills would love to lock down their former top target. No other Patriots wide receiver logged more than 40.0% of the routes in Week 4 as this team continues to heavily utilize RBs and TEs, but none are particularly fantasy-relevant beyond Henry and Stevenson.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.