2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Patriots at Bills on Sunday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Sunday night matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Patriots at Bills Betting Picks on Sunday Night Football

Over 49.5 (-110)

Two excelling quarterbacks meet on Sunday night as Drake Maye touts 0.22 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) while Josh Allen sports 0.28 EPA/db (via NFL Next Gen Stats). In Week 5's AFC East clash, will both signal-callers stay hot?

Starting with the Pats' offense, its totaling 3.9 yards per rushing attempt (ninth-lowest) and 8.0 yards per passing attempt (seventh-most). Buffalo has the ninth-best adjusted pass defense, but it consistently disguises coverages. While this usually trips quarterbacks, Maye boasts the fourth-highest passer rating when opposing teams change their safety shell post-snap.

Furthermore, we can't overlook Maye's hot streak right now, and this passing game could keep improving with Stefon Diggs coming off his highest snap share (62.5%) and receiving total (101 yards) of the season.

The Bills also give up the 14th-highest rush success rate. While New England's team rushing stats haven't been great, tailback Rhamondre Stevenson is a threat, proven by his 0.58 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry.

Buffalo averages 33.3 points per game (2nd-most) and 6.1 yards per play (4th-most), and the Patriots have ceded 5.6 yards per play (11th-most). Thanks to 4.9 yards per rushing attempt (seventh-most) and 8.1 yards per passing attempt (sixth-most), the Bills are capable of exposing defenses in any which way.

The air attack could be Buffalo's path to points, for New England is ceding 3.3 yards per carry (second-fewest) compared to 8.2 yards per passing attempt (fifth-most). Opponents are posting the eighth-most yards per downfield target against this secondary, as well, and Allen holds 8.0 yards per passing attempt.

Our Brandon Gdula has this matchup with the seventh-quickest adjusted pace for Week 5. I trust both quarterbacks in this matchup, leading me to the over with a potential duel on hand.

Matt Prater Under 7.5 Total Kicking Points (-120)

Further emphasizing the Bills' chances of scoring, I doubt Buffalo kicks many field goals Sunday night. Kicker Matt Prater has made only one field goal in back-to-back games, and the Bills excellent red zone scoring rate of 66.7% (eighth-highest) has played a big role.

The Patriots' D has struggled in the red zone with opponents scoring touchdowns on 87.5% of trips (second-highest). This is paired with allowing the 14th-highest third-down conversion rate. Winning key downs could be a driving force in this game as the Bills convert 42.0% of third downs (seventh-highest).

If Buffalo is excellent on third downs and in the red zone, Prater's field goal attempts should be greatly limited. We've seen just that since Week 3 with Prater posting 1.5 field goal attempts per contest during the two-game span.

Our NFL DFS projections have Prater attempting only 1.6 field goals while making 1.5 field goals (sixth-lowest of Week 5). I'll take under 7.5 kicking points. The biggest worry for this line will likely be too many extra points, for the Bills carry a 29.5-point team total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.