Nuggets vs. Thunder Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 11

Nuggets vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
• Coverage: ABC

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 6-point favorites heading into Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Sunday, beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Nuggets lead the series 2-1. The matchup has an over/under set at 227.5 points.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (52.4%)

Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Thunder are 54-26-2 against the spread this season.
• The Nuggets have 38 wins against the spread in 82 games this year.
• This season, Thunder games have hit the over 44 times.
• Nuggets games this season have gone over the total in 49 of 82 opportunities (59.8%).
• Oklahoma City sports a better record against the spread at home (29-12-1) than it does in road games (25-14-1).
• The Thunder have gone over the over/under more consistently at home, hitting the over in 25 of 42 home matchups (59.5%). On the road, they have hit the over in 19 of 40 games (47.5%).
• Denver's winning percentage against the spread at home is .439 (18-23-0). On the road, it is .488 (20-20-1).
• Nuggets games have finished above the over/under 63.4% of the time at home (26 of 41), and 56.1% of the time away (23 of 41).

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 32.7 points, 5 boards and 6.4 assists, shooting 51.9% from the floor and 37.5% from downtown, with 2.1 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Jalen Williams averages 21.6 points, 5.3 boards and 5.1 assists, shooting 48.4% from the floor and 36.5% from downtown, with 1.8 made treys per game.
• Isaiah Hartenstein averages 11.2 points, 10.7 boards and 3.8 assists.
• Aaron Wiggins is averaging 12 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Defensively, he averages 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Luguentz Dort averages 10.1 points, 4.1 boards and 1.6 assists, shooting 43.5% from the floor and 41.2% from beyond the arc, with 2.4 made 3-pointers per contest.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic averages 29.6 points, 12.7 boards and 10.2 assists. He is also sinking 57.6% of his shots from the floor (ninth in NBA) and 41.7% from beyond the arc, with 2 triples per game.
• Per game, Jamal Murray provides the Nuggets 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocks.
• The Nuggets receive 18.2 points per game from Michael Porter Jr., plus 7 boards and 2.1 assists.
• Per game, Christian Braun gives the Nuggets 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists, plus 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks.
• Russell Westbrook averages 13.3 points, 4.9 boards and 6.1 assists. He is draining 44.9% of his shots from the floor and 32.3% from 3-point range, with 1.3 treys per game.

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