Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals Betting Preview: Series Odds and Player Props

After the Miami Heat's 103-84 win over the Boston Celtics in Game 7 on Monday, the NBA Finals are now set.

The Heat will face the Denver Nuggets, who advanced to their first ever NBA Finals with a sweep over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

The NBA Finals get underway on Thursday with Game 1 in Denver.

Here's how the Nuggets and Heat stack up.

All NBA odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

• Series Moneyline:
  • Nuggets: -480
  • Heat: +330
• Total Games:
  • 4 (+430)
  • 5 (+185)
  • 6 (+240)
  • 7 (+240)
• Correct Score:
  • Nuggets 4-0 (+450)
  • Nuggets 4-1 (+210)
  • Nuggets 4-2 (+400)
  • Nuggets 4-3 (+370)
  • Heat 4-0 (+4800)
  • Heat 4-1 (+2500)
  • Heat 4-2 (+900)
  • Heat 4-3 (+1000)

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals Player Props: MVP Odds and Top Points Scorer

• MVP Odds:
  • Nikola Jokic: -320
  • Jimmy Butler: +330
  • Jamal Murray: +1200
  • Caleb Martin: +5000
  • Bam Adebayo: +5500
  • Michael Porter Jr.: +22000
  • Aaron Gordon: + 27000
  • Max Strus: +50000
• Top Points Scorer:
  • Nikola Jokic: +110
  • Jimmy Butler: +170
  • Jamal Murray: +260
  • Michael Porter Jr.: +6500
  • Caleb Martin: +6500
  • Aaron Gordon: +20000
  • Bam Adebayo: +20000
  • Gabe Vincent: +20000
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: +20000
  • Max Strus: +20000

Nuggets vs. Heat Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

• Nuggets:
  • nERD: 60.1 (7th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.9 (5th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.2 (18th)
  • Pace: 98.5 (21st)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 39.0% (2nd) - 66.5% (3rd)
    • Mid: 24.9% (12th) - 43.4% (13th)
    • 3PT: 36.1% (21st) - 37.9% (4th)
• Heat:
  • nERD: 47.5 (22nd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.2 (25th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.4 (8th)
  • Pace: 96.3 (29th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 29.9% (29th) - 62.6% (20th)
    • Mid: 29.4% (24th) - 45.3% (7th)
    • 3PT: 40.8% (9th) - 34.4% (27th)

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals Analysis

With the Eastern and Western Conference Finals officially in the books, the stage is set for the NBA Finals to begin.

Denver and Miami have had very different paths to this point.

Denver is supposed to be here. They entered the postseason as the top seed in the West, and they have played like a true one seed. In the first round, the Nuggets advanced past the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games, before eliminating the Phoenix Suns in six games in round two. In the WCF, they turned things up a notch, putting together an impressive series to sweep the Lakers and advance to their first NBA Finals in franchise history.

The Heat are not supposed to be here. After a disappointing regular season, they lost to the Atlanta Hawks in their first Play-In game before rallying late to defeat the Chicago Bulls and secure the eighth seed. What has happened since has been the stuff of fairytales. Despite losing Tyler Herro to a broken hand in the first half of their opening game against the Milwaukee Bucks in round one, the Heat have overcome every obstacle in their way.

After eliminating the Bucks in five games, Miami defeated the New York Knicks in six games to set up another clash with the Celtics in the ECF. The Heat got off to a hot start, going up 3-0 before a turnaround by Boston forced them into a critical Game 6 at home. They lost Game 6 on a wild tip-in buzzer beater from Derrick White and were faced with the enormous task of winning a Game 7 on the road. In an exact reversal of last year's ECF when the Celtics won Game 7 in Miami, the Heat crushed Boston in the TD Garden to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals.

The result is a clash between two teams that have dominated these playoffs from behind the arc. The Heat (39.0%) and Nuggets (38.6%) rank first and second in three-point field goal percentage this postseason, respectively. Both teams' playoff runs have also been supported by excellent play at home.

Denver is a perfect 8-0 at Ball Arena this postseason, where they are shooting 40.2% from three-point range and holding their opponents to 103.4 points per game. Including the regular season, Denver is a combined 42-7 at home this season. The Nuggets have been exceptional at closing games out in Denver during these playoffs. In fourth quarters played at home this postseason, they rank first in both field goal percentage (55.6%) and three-point field goal percentage (46.9%). They rank second in points (29.4) and first in team plus/minus (+3.9).

The Heat entered the ECF with a perfect record at home (5-0). After losing Games 4 and 6 to Boston in Miami, they are now 6-2 at home during these playoffs. The main reason for their success at home has been their defense. While their 110.0 points per home game ranks 12th, their 101.8 points allowed per game ranks 4th. They are holding opposing teams to the third-lowest field goal percentage (42.8%) and second-lowest three-point field goal percentage (29.9%) during these playoffs. At home, their team plus/minus of +8.3 ranks third best behind only the Nuggets and Lakers.

Like Denver, the Heat have been exceptional in fourth quarters this postseason. Their fourth quarter plus/minus of +3.8 leads the league. They rank fourth in points per fourth quarter (27.9), third in field goal percentage (48.0%), and fourth in three-point field goal percentage (39.3%). Their 24.1 points allowed per fourth quarter ranks second.

Both of these teams play their best when the game is on the line.

On paper, Denver is the better team. They are favorites to win Game 1 (-390) and the series. Miami won't care. They have been overcoming the odds all postseason and have an edge in NBA Finals experience.

The key for the Nuggets will be keeping their composure down the stretch and putting the Heat away when they have the chance. The Heat pulled off multiple fourth quarter comebacks against the Bucks and Celtics. To win their first NBA championship, Denver will need to succeed where those teams failed and consistently close out games against Miami.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.