NRFI Best Bets to Target on Monday 8/5/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-111)

Both of these offenses are in the league's bottom-third when it comes to YRFI rate, and this matchup's starting pitchers have found success in the first inning this season.

St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante may not get a ton of strikeouts (18.5% K rate), but he comes in with a 3.88 xFIP and 3.56 xERA behind an elite 61.8% ground-ball rate and a barrel rate in the 93rd percentile. He's allowed just 0.72 HR/9 over his 10 starts and has yet to give up a bomb in the first inning.

Pallante has logged a NRFI in nine of those outings and has a good chance of converting another versus a New York Mets team that's been sleepwalking through its first innings.

The Mets are 27th in YRFI rate (21.6%), and that clip is down to 4.0% over their past 25 games. Over the last 30 days, they have MLB's worst strikeout rate (36.8%) and wRC+ (31) in the opening frame.

Lefty Sean Manaea will take the mound for New York, and he's likely to face five straight St. Louis right-handed batters to open the game.

While that isn't ideal, when facing righties the first time through the order, he sees significant improvements in strikeout rate (25.7%) and xFIP (4.31) compared to his second time through (25.7% K rate; 5.01 xFIP).

Manaea has allowed first-inning runs in just 3 of his 21 starts, good for an 85.7% NRFI rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank just 22nd in YRFI rate (22.3%) this year.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

With temperatures in the 70s and double-digit mph winds blowing in from left field at Wrigley Field, this game has some of the best weather conditions for pitching, givings us an appealing target for a NRFI. Although some rain is also in the forecast, it isn't expected to cause any serious issues.

At first glance, righty Kyle Hendricks doesn't look like someone we want to trust for a clean first inning, but he's actually recorded an 86.7% NRFI rate across 15 starts. The reason? He's put up a stellar 3.29 xFIP, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate the first time through the order.

It also can't hurt that the two biggest Minnesota Twins power threats he'll face, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, both bat right-handed. In same-handed matchups, Hendricks has a solid 4.14 xFIP and 47.1% ground-ball rate, and only 5 of the 17 home runs he's allowed have come off righties.

David Festa is making just his fourth MLB start (fifth appearance), and while his season-long results look shaky, he's fresh off back-to-back strong outings, allowing just 3 earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings while racking up 13 Ks.

Further, the top prospect's overall underlying metrics generally show promise as he comes in with a 3.61 SIERA, 24.7% strikeout rate, and 4.7% walk rate. He's a perfect 3-for-3 in NRFIs and also didn't allow any runs in the opening inning of his bulk relief appearance.

Home runs have been the main problem for Festa, and that might be tough to shake considering his 29.3% ground-ball rate thus far. But the pitcher-friendly weather should assist him in that area, and no Chicago Cubs batter has shorter than +560 odds to hit a home run. Chicago also sits at 26th in YRFI rate (21.9%) and have been worse over their last 25 games (20.0%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.