FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Sunday 9/8/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

A Chris Sale ($11,800) day always forces some choices, and that's no different in this home matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto has stumbled to a bottom-10 wRC+ (76) and strikeout rate (26.7%) against southpaws over the 30 days, so you can fire the lefty up despite the name value around the matchup. He's posted at least nine strikeouts in each of his last four starts when not facing a team that's top 10 in strikeout avoidance against his split.

However, if marquee stacks are on your mind, starting with Freddy Peralta ($9,600) might not be a bad idea. Peralta draws the Colorado Rockies' league-high 31.1% K rate against righties in that same timeframe. The righty's 3.86 expected ERA (xERA), 27.3% strikeout rate, and 36.7% hard-hit rate always provide a quality package that I'll accept in an elite matchup -- like this one.

Luis Severino ($8,700) is the next stop down given his opponent's 3.40-run implied team total. Severino's lack of K upside (20.3%) rate is a precipitous drop from our two aces, but he could absolutely nab a quality start at home when the Cincinnati Reds, like the Blue Jays, are a bottom-10 team in wRC+ and K rate in his split over the past month of play.

Though I'm too concerned about the homer risk (1.16 HR/9 allowed), Andrew Heaney ($7,800) could be a target for many on a slate chock full of stacks. The Los Angeles Angels are the Los Angeles Angels -- even in their better split. In the past 30 days, L.A.'s .677 team OPS against lefties is significantly better than righties (.592), though. I'd rather find the coin for Peralta or Severino, but I can't fault backers of a ceiling day from Heaney's impressive 12.5% swinging-strike rate induced.

Stacks to Target

• Boston Red Sox (5.71 implied team total)
  • Chris Flexen (5.63 ERA) at MLB's second-best park for hitters just isn't a spot you can ignore, but there are a few warning signs the BoSox might not go nuts today. Flexen has surrendered three earned or fewer in six of his last eight starts, and the Chicago White Sox's 'pen quietly has the ninth-best reliever xFIP (3.88) over the past 30 days. Boston will be extremely popular, so navigate them wisely.
• Milwaukee Brewers (4.81)
  • Surprisingly, Kyle Freeland's HR/9 allowed is significantly worse on the road (1.93) than at home (0.89). That's not ideal news when Milwaukee's 2-3-4 hitters all went deep in yesterday's game that lefty Ty Blach started. At fair salaries, they're hard not to pair with their pitcher in a bullying session of baseball's second-worst club.
• Pittsburgh Pirates (4.69)
  • On one slate, we got Chris Flexen, Kyle Freeland, and now Patrick Corbin on the other side of the Buccos. Luckily, this is the stack of the three you can really target with Sale; only two bats in the lineup are above $3,000 on FanDuel. The Washington Nationals' bullpen has been a bit inconsistent over the past month of play (4.40 xFIP; fourth-worst in MLB), as well.
• New York Mets (4.60)
  • We still have gotten overall mixed signals from top Reds prospect Julian Aguiar, but his 6.57 xERA, 50.8% flyball rate, and 16.7% barrel rate aren't marks to be avoided against a prolific Mets order. With Aguiar coughing up 2.70 HR/9, I wrote up Pete Alonso ($3,200) in today's home run best bets and love him even as just a one-off.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.