MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 9/8/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals

Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

There aren't many pitchers in baseball worse at piling out strikeouts than Miles Mikolas. I'm not sure how he needs five to clear even money against any MLB club.

Mikolas hit this in his last outing with five Ks, but he hasn't topped five in a larger sample of 13 of his last 16 outings. Not only do whiff (16.2%) and strikeout (16.7%) rates in the bottom 10% of MLB qualifiers hurt his cause to get there, but the St. Louis Cardinals' righty also battles general ineffectiveness, per a 4.41 expected ERA (xERA), .279 expected batting average (xBA), and 41.2% hard-hit rate allowed. Those are all bottom 30% marks themselves.

I see this line as folks blind betting this Seattle Mariners matchup. Seattle leads the league in K rate against righties (27.6%), but that's dropped to 24.6% (10th-highest in MLB) over the past 30 days. Recently, they haven't been an extreme outlier matchup for whiffs.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections forecast just 3.91 strikeouts for Mikolas in this afternoon's tilt.

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

Under 4.5 Total Runs in First 5 Innings (-114)

These two offenses are always good for a clunker, so why not buy into some impressive early samples from a pair of young starters with this line?

The Detroit Tigers wrap up their series with the Oakland Athletics on Sunday, and they'll do so with right-handed Ty Madden on the bump. Madden is just 9.0 innings into his MLB career, but a 3.55 xERA and 31.3% hard-hit rate allowed are a phenomenal start. It'll help his cause that the Athletics' .697 team OPS in the past 30 days against righties is 11th-worst in baseball.

Detroit's (.683) is even worse, though, opening the door for A's righty J.T. Ginn to match his counterpart. In a larger sample of 14.2 innings, Ginn's 2.97 xERA, .201 xBA, and 25.9% K rate all show pretty dominant command of the mound.

There's a reason oddsmakers have set this first-five-inning line four runs lower than the total. These are two bottom-12 bullpens (by season-long xFIP), so we'll happily dodge them to solely support the youngsters.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+310)

We have heard "The Polar Bear" roar just once in September, but a second long ball could firmly be on the table for Pete Alonso this afternoon in Queens.

The New York Mets' first baseman is still striping the ball well against same-handed pitchers, posting a .747 OPS, .238 ISO, 42.9% flyball rate, and 40.8% hard-hit rate over the past month of play. A weak one awaits him this afternoon.

It'll come in the form of Julian Aguiar, a right-handed prospect for the Cincinnati Reds. Aguiar has coughed up 2.70 HR/9 to this stage with an ugly 6.57 xERA, 50.8% flyball rate, and 16.7% barrel rate in a growing sample of 16.2 MLB innings.

We've got Alonso projected for 0.36 home runs in today's game, which -- if correct -- would imply closer to +231 odds for one.

Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Some bettors are superstitious about taking the same guy to go deep twice in a row if it hits on the first day. I can't ignore how Willy Adames is raking against southpaws, though.

Adames' round-tripper on Saturday added to a past 30 days against lefties that has resulted in a .919 OPS, .333 ISO, 54.5% flyball rate, and 54.5% hard-hit rate across 22 plate appearances (PAs). He's one of the sport's most pronounced dinger threats against left-handers right now.

As was the case yesterday, the Colorado Rockies are sending a vulnerable one to the slab. Kyle Freeland has surrendered 1.93 HR/9 on the road this season, which is actually worse than his rate at Coors Field (0.89). A 4.78 xERA with elevated hard-hit (42.2%) and barrel (9.5%) rates allowed help explain why.

We've got an identical forecast of 0.27 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers shortstop on Sunday that we did on Saturday. Like then, our projections would set Adames' line to go yard closer to +321.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.