NRFI Best Bets to Target on Monday 7/29/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Minnesota Twins at New York Mets

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

A battle between starters Jose Quintana and Simeon Woods Richardson probably doesn't scream "pitchers' duel" but we should still like the chances of a NRFI at these odds.

Quintana has pretty meh underlying metrics this year, but he's improved over the last two months, coinciding with increased usage of his curveball. Since the beginning of June, the left-hander has posted a pristine 2.77 ERA, and while that's unsustainable, his 4.15 xFIP and 22.4% strikeout rate over that span is a significant step up from the 4.62 xFIP and 15.4% strikeout rate we saw over the first two months.

He'll be aided by the league's second-best pitching venue, too, per Baseball Savant's park factors. This is likely why Minnesota Twins power threats Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are priced at just +400 and +420 to hit a home run, respectively. Additionally, the Twins have been a below-average offense in the first inning over the last 30 days, showing just a 92 wRC+.

If Quintana holds up his end of the bargain, we should feel confident in Woods Richardson finishing the job against the New York Mets. The Mets are 21st in YRFI rate (22.9%) and have really fallen off lately, putting up a league-worst 36.8% K rate, .188 wOBA, and .035 ISO in the first inning over the last 30 days.

Woods Richardson has logged a NRFI in 16 of his 17 starts, which is backed by him recording a 28.1% strikeout rate over that sample -- well above his 21.1% K rate for the season. The right-hander also has better marks the first time through the order, owning a 3.78 xFIP, 23.5% strikeout rate, and 44.1% ground-ball rate. It all lines up for another clean opening inning from Woods Richardson.

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

No player in this game has shorter than +450 odds to hit a home run, suggesting this is one of the least likely contests to feature any dingers tonight. That should immediately pique our interest in targeting this one for a NRFI.

The Texas Rangers have been a dangerous offense in the first inning this year, but we should have faith in right-hander Andre Pallante being able to hold them in check.

Although Pallante has unremarkable figures in both strikeout rate (18.4%) and walk rate (8.7%), he boasts a 60.9% ground-ball rate that's in MLB's 98th percentile. He's paired those grounders with a fantastic barrel rate (90th percentile), leading to a 3.66 xERA and just 0.78 HR/9.

Pallante has split time as a starter and reliever this year, but since joining the rotation, he's converted a NRFI in eight of his nine starts. Despite being right-handed, he's actually been stronger versus lefties with a 3.28 xFIP and 74.4% ground-ball rate, which should help him neutralize one of the more dangerous Texas threats in Corey Seager.

In the bottom of the inning, Nathan Eovaldi will be tasked with silencing the St. Louis Cardinals' bats. While Eovaldi has been just okay in the first inning over 18 starts (72.2% NRFI rate), it's safe to say this will be a plus matchup, as the Cardinals have the league's third-worst YRFI rate (21.0%).

The veteran righty is in the midst of an excellent campaign, as well, coming in with a 3.46 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate, and 50.2% ground-ball rate. Despite the occasional shaky opening frame, there's little reason to think Eovaldi shouldn't come through more often than not.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.