NHL Picks Today: NHL Best Bets, Predictions and Props for Monday, October 5

Monday’s Top NHL Picks at a Glance

• Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+116)
• Boston Bruins Moneyline (+100)
• Dallas Stars -1.5 (+126)

The NHL season is still in its opening stretch, and Monday gives us a four-game slate with some intriguing betting opportunities.

Tampa Bay is a sizable home favorite against Philadelphia while Boston and Ottawa are essentially a toss-up at TD Garden. Later in the night, Dallas will look to shake off an 0-2 start against an undefeated San Jose team.

Let's dive into the best bets for Monday night.

NHL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NHL Predictions Today: Player Props, Best Bets

Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+116)

Flyers vs. Lightning, 7:10 p.m. ET

The Philadelphia Flyers have stumbled to an 0-1-2 start while the Tampa Bay Lightning sit at 1-1. The Flyers have had particular trouble keeping the puck out of their own net, allowing 13 goals through their first three games.

That's not good news for Philly heading into a date against a Tampa Bay offense built around Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and Jake Guentzel. Kucherov is coming off a 2025-26 season in which he racked up 44 goals and 130 points in 76 games.

Tampa Bay's talent advantage makes the plus-money puck line an appealing wager.

Boston Bruins Moneyline (+100)

Senators vs. Bruins, 7:40 p.m. ET

The Boston Bruins are a slight home underdog on Monday, and I like taking them to beat the Ottawa Senators.

These odds are particularly interesting when compared to numberFire's projections. Its model gives Boston a 56.1% chance to win.

Boston does have to navigate Charlie McAvoy's absence, but Ottawa has its own concern after Jake Sanderson exited the Senators' opener with an undisclosed injury.

With home ice and a favorable discrepancy between the betting market and numberFire's projection, I'll take Boston.

Dallas Stars -1.5 (+126)

Sharks vs. Stars, 8:10 p.m. ET

It's certainly not difficult to see why bettors might hesitate to take the Dallas Stars on the puck line today versus the San Jose Sharks. The Stars are 0-2 while San Jose has opened 2-0 behind a surging young core.

Still, this looks like a good spot to buy low on Dallas rather than overreact to two games.

numberFire is bullish on Dallas tonight, giving the Stars an 80% chance to win Monday. That comes out to a -400 moneyline, so by numberFire’s model, the market’s -200 moneyline is a value. I’m going to take a swing on the puck line instead of the moneyline.

San Jose's fast start deserves respect, especially with Macklin Celebrini driving the offense. Celebrini posted 115 points and 287 shots last season and already has five points through his first two games of 2026-27.

Even so, Dallas is at home, and the gap between numberFire's projection and the current market is too significant for me to ignore. I'll back the Stars to get their first victory of the season and to do so by at least two goals.

NHL Betting -- Frequently Asked Questions

What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting?

The puck line is hockey's version of a point spread. The standard puck line is usually set at 1.5 goals, meaning a team listed at -1.5 must win by at least two goals for the bet to cash. A team at +1.5 can either win outright or lose by one goal.

What Does the Moneyline Mean in NHL Betting?

A moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win the game. Favorites have negative odds, while underdogs have positive odds. Unlike the puck line, the margin of victory does not matter.

What Are NHL Player Props?

NHL player props allow bettors to wager on an individual player's performance rather than the final result of the game. Common markets include goals, assists, points, shots on goal, and goalie saves.

What Should You Consider When Betting on NHL Games?

Several factors can influence NHL betting decisions, including starting goaltenders, injuries, recent team performance, special-teams play, expected line combinations, and whether a team is playing on consecutive nights. Because goalie confirmations can significantly impact a matchup, it can be useful to check the latest lineup news before placing a bet.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.