NHL Betting Picks: Monday 10/16/23

We're almost a week into the NHL season, and we still have some uncertainty about how good some of these actually are. There's some uncertainty in the betting market, as well. Let's see if we can take advantage of that.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs

Under 6.5 (+112)

The heavy slant toward the "over" in this one makes this number appealing.

Unders can come in various shapes and sizes, but the genesis of this pick is that Joseph Woll has been pretty solid behind a Toronto Maple Leafs defense that we know to be stout. Toronto was 11th-best in the NHL in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes last season (2.90), and Woll had an exceptional small sample a year ago. In just seven starts, he complied 6.59 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) with a per-game figure that would have led the NHL had it held.

Of course, the Chicago Blackhawks added sensational rookie Connor Bedard this offseason, but the 18-year-old won't single-handedly turn around a club that was second from the bottom in expected goals per 60 minutes a year ago (2.50).

The volatile side of this under is a total mopping of Petr Mrazek from the Leafs' offense, but Mrazek has complied 1.60 GSAx already with an actual save percentage (.972) that exceeds his expected Fenwick save rate (.953). That's a decent opening sample from a goaltender that was poor (-0.88 GSAx) a season ago.

numberFire's model expects the under to cash 56.5% of the time in this one, so the 47.2% implied odds on this bet are great value.

Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals

Capitals ML (+108)

Both of these clubs are exiting a lashing at the hands of the vaunted Pittsburgh Penguins, but I prefer the home side here getting an extra day of rest.

Last season, there was a pretty substantial chasm between tonight's two starting netminders. Jacob Markstrom of the Calgary Flames finished second in Vezina Trophy voting in the 2021-22 season, but 2022-23 was a struggle. He amassed -18.33 goals saved above average (GSAA) with a poor .893 save rate. The Flames were one of the most bizarre teams in hockey, ranking third in expected-goals-for percentage (55.1 xGF%) and comfortably missing the playoffs.

Regression might be coming for them, but the Washington Capitals are also due for better this season. They're just healthy again to begin 2023-24 after losing Nicklas Backstrom and John Carlson for at least 40 games each last year. Even with the injury issues, Darcy Kuemper had another exceptional season, ranking 15th of 103 qualifying goalies in GSAx a season ago (13.21).

This is a great example of steering into variance. I think both of these clubs will be better this season, but one has the more stable goaltending situation, is at home, and has additional rest as a +108 underdog. numberFire's model gives the Capitals a 54.5% chance to win this game at plus money.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.