NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/4/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 30 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Winnipeg Jets at Phoenix Coyotes

Karel Vejmelka Over 28.5 Saves (-112)

The Winnipeg Jets should be a pretty good matchup for goalie saves for most of the season, so I was a bit surprised to see this prop below 30.

Winnipeg has put the 10th-most Corsi For per 60 minutes (63.5) on net, but they've turned that into just the 18th-most expected goals per 60 (3.12) to this point. The chances aren't overly dangerous, but the Jets are happy to fire away.

Then, it's just a question of whether or not the goaltender in question can turn the pucks aside, and I'm growing a sample that Karel Vejmelka of the Arizona Coyotes can. Veggie is 29th of 66 qualifying goalies this year in goals saved above expectation (1.57 GSAx), and he ranked 26th of 102 qualifiers a year ago (6.98).

Vejmelka has at least 32 saves in four of his five starts this year, but his counting total is bogged down by a 16-save effort in relief of Connor Ingram last week. I think that has created a boatload of value behind the prop, but act quickly. Jets-Coyotes is an afternoon matinee that locks at 4:10 p.m. EST.

Los Angeles Kings at Philadelphia Flyers

Over 6.5 (-104)

Outside of a Calvin Petersen revenge game, we're setting up on paper for a shootout in the "City of Brotherly Love" today.

Petersen was recalled from the AHL after the Philadelphia Flyers' normal starter, Carter Hart, suffered an injury on Thursday. It's been a mess in goal for the Flyers even with Hart (-0.07 GSAx), but Petersen will likely start against his former team because regular backup Samuel Ersson is dead last among qualifying goalies in GSAx (-6.97).

We could only be so lucky to get him instead, but it's not like Cal will be a cure-all option. In the minors for a reason, Petersen posted -10.12 GSAx with the Los Angeles Kings last year. By all accounts, the Flyers will struggle to keep pucks out of the net tonight against a team scoring the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.79) to this point.

It's not like Philadelphia won't help, though. They're a decent 16th in expected goals per 60 (3.18), and L.A.'s Cam Talbot (1.68 GSAx) has been just fine to this stage.

numberFire's model projects the over to hit 52.6% of the time in this one and shows value compared to these 50.4% implied odds.

Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights

Avalanche ML (-118)
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goal (+115)

It might be surprising to some that the 10-0-1 Vegas Golden Knights are home underdogs to the Colorado Avalanche tonight, but the Avs have been the better team behind the scenes in 2023-24 to this point.

Colorado is 3rd in expected-goals-for rate (56.3 xGF%), a category where Vegas ranks 19th (49.5%). They've been incredibly fortunate to amass an unbeaten record while deserving a negative goal differential.

Usually, a team is winning with goaltending when that's the case, and Logan Thompson certainly have been the driving force. He's 8th in the NHL in GSAx (6.80), but that relative advantage for most games is definitely lessened against Colorado. Alexandar Georgiev was last year's NHL leads in wins (40), and he's certainly performed well to rank 17th in that category behind Thompson (3.86).

While you'd still give Vegas the edge in net, they're just the worse of these two clubs between the creases.

If Colorado is winning, I'm expecting Nathan MacKinnon to be a driving force behind that. MacKinnon really ups his shot volume on the road; he's taken 6.3 shots per game away from Ball Arena this season and has a good shot to pot one if his shooting average from last year (11.5%) is any indication. He's definitely due for an uptick in goals soon with a mere 8.2% shooting rate to begin this campaign.

Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken

Flames ML (-110)

There's nothing I enjoy more in the NHL than buying teams underperforming their peripherals in the standings, and that's the Calgary Flames at 2-7-1 above all.

Calgary's 17th-best xGF% (50.1%) isn't ideal, but they're projected for a positive goal differential with an actual GF% of 37.3%. They've been terribly unlucky to begin this campaign, and look no further than tonight's opponent, the Seattle Kraken, to see it. Seattle's 4-5-1 record has come behind a significantly worse 47.3 xGF%.

Plus, Calgary has the ingredient I value above all -- elite goaltending. Jacob Markstrom ranks 5th among qualifying goalies in GSAx (7.04), and while Seattle's Philipp Grubauer (3.30 GSAx) has been a significant improvement over his peers in the locker room, he still lags behind how Markstrom is performing to this point in the year.

This pick 'em line is likely appealing to casual bettors; they'll take the better record at home. However, the Flames have an extra day of rest compared to the Kraken, and they've frankly -- despite their record -- been a better hockey club.

Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks

Under 5.5 (+124)

With Jake Oettinger having received a day off on Thursday, I believe we'll see two of the league's best netminders duel in Vancouver this evening.

The Dallas Stars have learned on Oettinger for two prior campaigns, and it's been no different in 2023-24. Oettinger slots in right behind the aforementioned Markstrom with 6.98 GSAx in just six starts this season. They've made a conscious effort to get him more rest, and it's paying off through his performance.

However, the veteran actually lags behind the Vancouver Canucks' breakout star. The 'Nucks are 7-2-1, and it's largely due to the performance of Thatcher Demko this season. Demko leads the NHL in GSAx (9.59) in seven appearances. Vancouver's league-worst defense a year ago has also shored up a bit, slotting 22nd in expected goals allowed per 60 (3.40) this season. They're not perfect, but they've been manageably bad for Demko to do the rest.

With two red-hot goaltenders and Dallas' offense ranking just in the middle of the pack this season (3.23 expected goals per 60), I love turning to an alternate under on FanDuel. The standard marker of Under 6.5 (-130) comes with substantial juice, but I believe in these two to keep things extremely low-scoring.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.