NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 10/14/23

The first beefy Saturday slate of the 2023-24 season is here. There are 14 total games in action with 12 of them forming a "main" slate after 7:00 p.m. est. We've already seen some absurd results (hello, Arizona Coyotes) in the first week, so we'll steer into variance for the best picks today.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators

Carter Hart Over 29.5 Saves (-112)

The Ottawa Senators generated plenty of shots last year, and Carter Hart isn't a stranger to being busy. We are fortunate to find a bet in this afternoon matinee.

Ottawa is sixth in Corsi For per 60 minutes since the start of last season (58.3), and I think they can at least slide into the top half of this league this season despite a massive shift. Alex DeBrincat was shipped to the Detroit Red Wings, but the Sens added Vladimir Tarasenko to help fill that scoring void on the wing.

As for the Philadelphia Flyers' defense, they've has surrendered the sixth-most Corsi Against per 60 minutes since the start of last year (54.1). That led to a breakout campaign for Hart in 2022-23 in which he ranked 16th in goals saved above expectation (GSAx) across the league (12.93).

The concern for an immense volume of shots is always the caliber of the goalie blocking them; we won't hit this mark if Hart got pulled. Alas, I trust the American's ability enough against a reduced -- but voluminous -- scoring attack to snatch at least 30 saves in this one.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

Lightning ML (-120)

Though the Tampa Bay Lightning are without stud netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, this near-pick 'em is still a market overreaction for their first road game of the season.

It's because they actually still have the better skaters and goaltenders. Of course, last season as the defending East champs, Tampa was still 13th in expected-goals-for percentage (51.8 xGF%). That towered over the Detroit Red Wings' mark (48.0%), and the addition of DeBrincat won't be enough to close that gap.

However, if you're chalking both goalies up as poor here, I'd think again. In limited time with the Colorado Avalanche last season, Tampa's Jonas Johansson posted 3.32 GSAx, which ranked 39th out of 102 qualifying goalies. Detroit's Ville Husso was 97th at -12.99 GSAx and actively hurting the Wings' otherwise elite D.

We saw Tampa's offense burst with five goals in their opener, so I'll take them in a firefight on the road. numberFire's model agrees, pegging the Bolts to win this one 65.5% of the time versus these 54.5% implied odds.

Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs

Kirill Kaprizov 5+ Shots (+165)
Kirill Kaprizov Anytime Goal (+115)

Buying into small samples can be foolish, but the other substantial reason to do it here is that Kirill Kaprizov has one of the most clearly defined scoring roles in hockey.

Kaprizov's 3.90 shots per game last year led the Minnesota Wild by a lot. Joel Eriksson Ek (3.17) was second. He still led the team in overall shots (261) despite only playing 67 games. That likely isn't changing this year; Kaprizov took four shots in the opener with no other skater amassing more than two.

Therefore, he's pretty comfortably the favorite to take advantage of a plum spot, and Ilya Samsonov might be one in goal for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Samsonov only saved 19 of 24 shots in Toronto's opener. He ceded 5.27 goals per 60 minutes when, based on the Montreal Canadiens' shot diet, he only surrendered 2.71 expected goals. That 11-goal shootout on Wednesday was largely his doing.

If Samsonov just doesn't have it to begin 2023-24, Kaprizov will likely lead the charge for the Wild. These plus marks for a monster night are incredibly appealing.

Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

Sabres Team Total Under 2.5 (+120)

Longtime numberFire readers likely know by now that any time I can get behind Ilya Sorokin, I'll do it.

Sorokin led the NHL in GSAx last season (51.36) and was largely robbed of the Vezina Trophy on the notion of team success. His New York Islanders are painfully average, and the record-setting Boston Bruins also snatched that award until the truth serum came out in the playoffs. My salt about the primitive awards voting in the NHL aside, Sorokin is positioned to potentially earn the trophy this year.

They're one of the last teams to make their 2023-24 debut tonight at home against the Buffalo Sabres, and I'll back a great night from their netminder with this line. Buffalo found themselves in some high-octane shootouts last year but largely sat closer to a league-average offense, ranking 13th in xGF per 60 minutes (3.23) and 18th in Corsi For per 60 (57.6).

numberFire's model has Sorokin projected to cede 2.32 goals tonight. Obviously, he can't cede a partial goal, but the model's outlook resides in his favor with plus money that the wheel stops on two (or fewer) tallies.

Seattle Kraken at St. Louis Blues

Kraken ML (-110)

Overreactions are abound in these lines, and this nightcap might be the most obvious of all.

The Seattle Kraken have been blasted by consecutive goaltenders playing above their skis; both Adin Hill and Juuse Saros played above expectation and rank in the top six of the NHL in GSAx through meetings with Seattle. In other words, their offense deserved better than getting outscored 7-1 at this point, but they ran into hot 'tending.

Not only are the St. Louis Blues a poor candidate for that, but they're also an impotent offense. The Kraken were a playoff contender before the season, and the Blues are pretty firmly a cellar dweller.

In goal, the brash Jordan Binnington has done more trash talking than goal saving recently. He ranked 87th in GSAx (-6.45) last year, and St. Louis could have used his help. The Blues were fifth from the bottom in xGF% (44.1%) and lost the aforementioned Tarasenko in free agency.

The Notes played the Dallas Stars tight on Thursday to earn a point, and they're likely going to come out motivated for their home opener. Seattle, with a preseason total 9.0 projected points above St. Louis, has earned the benefit of the doubt to back them in this pick 'em, though. numberFire's model believes Seattle wins 63.2% of the time tonight.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.