NFL Survivor Picks for Week 11: Should You Side With the Commanders?

There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 11.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 11

These are the top five teams by expected win probability, according to numberFire's model. All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
  • Entering Week 11, you've probably already chosen the Buffalo Bills as a survivor pick, and you've probably been disappointed. The Bills have been a top-four survivor pick four times this season and went 1-3 in those games (via Yahoo). But if you've managed to avoid the Bills up until this point, now might be the week to take them, even with Monday's nightmarish home loss to the Denver Broncos. numberFire's win probability model gives Buffalo a slate-high 83.8% win probability, and with a tough schedule on the horizon, this game against the Jets is as easy as it will come for Josh Allen and company -- save for a Week 17 date with the New England Patriots.
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers
  • A game against the 1-8 Carolina Panthers will always be worth targeting when it comes to survivor picks, but with the Dallas Cowboys on the other side of the pigskin? You definitely want to pick on the Panthers. numberFire's nERD-based power rankings have Dallas as the second-ranked team, while the Panthers take up residency at the lowly 31st spot. The Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites this Sunday and should roll past the Panthers.
• Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders
  • The Miami Dolphins are coming off their bye week as a slate-high 11.5-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders. Although Las Vegas seems to be on the come-up since their head coach shake-up, don't let their 5-5 record mislead you -- the Raiders have yet to win a game against a team that ranks inside the top 18 of numberFire's power rankings, and Miami is the fifth-ranked team.
• Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
  • No team has a higher pick rate (28.5%) this week than the Detroit Lions. The 7-2 squad is a 10.0-point home favorite against the Chicago Bears, and numberFire hands them a 75.0% win probability. Detroit will get another matchup at Chicago in Week 14, though by that point, I'd probably be more apt to target the lesser-picked New Orleans Saints in a game against the Panthers (92.2% win probability) or take a chance on the Green Bay Packers opposite the New York Giants (81.4% win probability), so now is probably the time to go with the Lions.
• Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals
  • If you've yet to catch up on what C.J. Stroud and the Texans have been up to, now is the week to get on board. After upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals this past Sunday, the Texans enter Week 11 with a 74.5% win probability over the 2-8 Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has yet to win on the road and should prove to be the smoothest matchup for the remainder of Houston's season.

Digging Deeper

Have you already used all the teams mentioned above? Here are some other options.

Washington Commanders

If you didn't side with the Washington Commanders in Week 1's victory over the Cardinals (27.41% pick rate) and survivor picks still mean something to you, then you probably haven't picked Washington, period.

After nearly upsetting the Seattle Seahawks in a nail-bitter this past Sunday, the Commanders enter Week 11 as 9.5-point favorites over the abysmal New York Giants (2-8), and numberFire gives them a 73.5% win probability.

Now, Washington did drop a Week 7 game against the Giants, but Sam Howell put up season-worst numbers in that one and has been stellar ever since, throwing for eight touchdowns and 1,034 yards over his last three.

Meanwhile, the Tommy DeVito era in New York has been an unsurprising mess. After Daniel Jones went down with a season-ending injury and DeVito was given the signal-caller role, the Giants have been outscored 79-23 in two games.

numberFire's power rankings have the G-Men as the worst team in the league, so we should take advantage of a matchup with them whenever we see fit. The Commanders' D isn't great, but it won't have to be against a team that is averaging 11.8 points (fewest) and 259.2 total yards per game (fewest).

The Commanders have put up an average of 25.6 points over their last three, and I expect that number to stick against a team that allows 26.6 points each game (fourth-most).

It's speak now or forever hold your peace when it comes to Washington and survivor picks -- as of right now, they are not the favorites for any remaining game on their schedule. This includes a pair of games against the Cowboys and dates with the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers.

This game is by far the most sensible spot to use Washington, making them one of the best survivor options for Week 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars

If you're in a bind and have already picked the Commanders and aforementioned teams this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars could be a decent option this week.

Ideally, we could save the Jags for a Week 17 matchup against the Panthers (87.8% win probability), but Jacksonville's 67.9% win probability against the Tennessee Titans (3-6) this Sunday is nothing to shake a stick at.

The Jaguars are 6.5-point favorites over a Titans team that has lost four of their last five games. Jacksonville is coming off a total beatdown at the hands of the 49ers, but they won five straight prior to Week 10 and their eighth-ranked defense could have Will Levis and company complete a three-peat on sub-17-point performances.

Jacksonville's -290 moneyline isn't as fun as say, the Commanders' -500 moneyline, but it should still instill faith in the Jags. I expect a bounce-back performance for Trevor Lawrence in a home game against a middling Tennessee team.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your