NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Jahmyr Gibbs in 2023

The Detroit Lions shocked a lot of people when they traded up to the 12th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft to select former Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Based on their front office’s excited reactions to the pick, it seems like the Lions were more than thrilled that they were able to get Gibbs with the 12th overall pick.

Despite the lofty draft capital, Gibbs' +900 odds to be the Associated Press’ Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) selection tie him for just the fifth-best odds in the class. So what gives with Gibbs?

The Case for Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs certainly has the kind of skill set that could earn him the OROY award by season’s end. He flashed elite top-end speed for a running back with his blazing 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His 95th-percentile 10-yard split showcased his ability to get to his top gear with incredible acceleration, as well.

Gibbs wasn’t just a combine warrior, either; his speed translated to the field throughout his collegiate career. Last season as the Crimson Tide’s lead back, Gibbs recorded a top-notch 54.8% breakaway run rate (the percentage of runs that gained at least 15 or more yards), according to Pro Football Focus. That mark ranked third-best among all of the running backs in the 2023 draft class.

To put into perspective just how impressive that number is, compare Gibbs’ 54.8% rate to those of some of his contemporaries. Fellow first-round running back Bijan Robinson -- who is the current OROY favorite at +300 odds -- posted a breakaway run rate of 38.6%. New Miami Dolphins back Devon Achane, a third-round pick who doubled as an elite runner for Texas A&M’s track team, finished his final season with a 42.8% breakaway run rate.

Achane and Robinson are regarded as two of the best backs in this class at producing splash plays, and Gibbs' breakaway run rate was significantly ahead of theirs.

It helps that he landed with a team so excited to maximize that skill set. Shortly after drafting Gibbs, the Lions traded away former second-round pick D'Andre Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles. It was clear throughout the 2022 NFL season that the Lions were frustrated with Swift, but he still recorded a 40.2% breakaway run rate last season, the sixth-best rate in the league. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson repeatedly found ways to generate explosive plays on offense throughout the year, and Gibbs should help him continue to do so in 2023.

Favorable Player Comparisons

Gibbs led the Crimson Tide in both rushes (151) and receptions (44) in his junior season. We haven’t seen a running back accomplish that feat and receive Round 1 draft capital since Christian McCaffrey. And despite being busy leading the team across the board in rushing stats, Gibbs still doubled as the top pass catcher for Bryce Young, who went first overall on draft night. It's somewhat similar to when Travis Etienne went in the first round the same year Trevor Lawrence was the top overall pick.

Having a similar collegiate production profile and draft capital to McCaffrey and Etienne, two backs who finished the 2022 season 3rd and 14th, respectively, in total yards from scrimmage, is certainly a feather in Gibbs' cap.

McCaffrey notably did not win the OROY award in his first season. But the 2017 award did go to another running back, one to which Gibbs drew multiple comparisons throughout the draft process: Alvin Kamara.

Like Gibbs will have to do in 2023, Kamara had to contend with a crowded backfield in his rookie season. Detroit signed David Montgomery to a three-year contract in free agency, and the former Chicago Bear is expected to split opportunities with Gibbs. Kamara had to vie for opportunities behind both Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in his rooke campaign, eventually establishing himself as the team’s go-to playmaker a few weeks into his rookie season.

Kamara’s OROY-winning season saw him carry the ball 120 times for 728 yards and 8 touchdowns while catching 81 passes for 826 yards and 5 more scores. It’s not hard to imagine a back with Gibbs’ track record, three-down skillset and draft capital producing similar numbers to Kamara if Gibbs is able to garner similar opportunities. Given how early Gibbs was taken, it stands to reason he's going to get plenty of touches.

Positioning in the 2023 Class

Gibbs’ most direct competition to win the OROY award is Robinson, who went 8th overall to the Atlanta Falcons. After all, it’s probably pretty hard to win the OROY award if you aren’t the best rookie at your own position.

A bet on Gibbs at +900 is an arbitrage on Robinson at +300. Running backs have won more OROY awards than any other position. Even in an NFL that has skewed increasingly toward the passing game since the turn of the millennium, running backs have won the award nine times dating back to 2000.

By placing a bet on one of the running backs in this year’s class, you are essentially betting that the three first-round quarterbacks do not live up to expectations in 2023. The quarterbacks may not immediately look like stars, and some of them aren't locks to start Week 1.

Any hiccups from the rookie quarterbacks are a boost to the OROY stock of the top running backs in the class.

Final Thoughts

Gibbs is one of the most electric offensive players in the 2023 class, and he is an interesting bet to win the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award at his +900 odds.

He’s close in talent to the current betting favorite, Bijan Robinson, and will get to play in an offense that is both one of the NFL's best and is also perfectly suited to maximizing the skillset Gibbs flashed throughout his college career.

The Lions are the betting favorite to win the NFC North (+140). Detroit was close to a playoff berth last year but has not made a playoff appearance since 2016, getting into the postseason just three times since 2000.

If Gibbs plays a big role in helping Detroit get into the playoffs, he could have a serious case to win the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.