Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Monday, September 14

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Pete Alonso (+310)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (+255)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong (+255)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Pete Alonso (+310)

Orioles at Mets, 7:11 p.m. ET

Pete Alonso is my favorite HR play on the board. He’s a right-handed hitter facing right-hander Jonah Tong, and Alonso has 35 home runs overall this season with a .247ISO and an impressive 46.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also owns a 94.4 mph average exit velocity and an 11.2% barrel rate in the current season profile.

Home Run Prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+255)

Braves at Cubs, 7:41 p.m. ET

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a particularly interesting value target because he combines major power production with a favorable handedness matchup. He's a left-handed hitter facing right-hander Reynaldo López, and he has 41 homers with a .287 ISO this season. His HR/FB rate against right-handed pitching is 20.4%, and his barrel rate is 9.6%, giving him a legitimate power path at Wrigley. Oh, and the wind is blowing out at 15 MPH to left-center.

Home Run Prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+255)

Padres at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

This is primarily a ballpark-driven play — not that Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t plenty capable of leaving the yard in any park. Tatis is a right-handed hitter facing right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field, and the game carries an 11.0-run total. Tatis has 21 homers and a .376 expected wOBA this season, while Colorado's pitching staff has allowed opponents to hit .288 and carries a 5.57 team ERA. Over his past 49 plate appearances, Tatis has a .499 wOBA and four jacks. He can keep rolling today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

New customers can get up to $350 in Bonus Bets — guaranteed — when you bet $5 every day for seven days. Place your first wager now! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager!

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.