NFL No. 1 Seed Odds: Who Will Be NFC's Top Dog in 2023?

It's almost time for football as the NFL season is right around the corner.

There are a lot of future bets to look forward to for this upcoming season with MVP and Super Bowl being among the hot commodities. Betting on who will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC can be just as good however based on a season ago.

Heading into last season, FanDuel Sportsbook's preseason odds had the eventual NFC Champions at +1000. The Philadelphia Eagles aren't going to be that profitable this time around, but there will be teams similar to that listing who certainly are worth a look.

Cream of the Crop

The NFC has experienced a lot of change over the last five years but dating back to 2019, it's the Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers who have both made it to the Super Bowl and have been able to get back to being among the elite teams in the league despite one year missing the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles (+350)

There should not be much surprise here seeing the Philadelphia Eagles back at the top spot for the NFC as the reigning conference champions while also making sure to revamp themselves in the offseason for another run to the Super Bowl.

The Eagles have the second shortest odds to win to take the No. 1 seed in either conference, only trailing the Kansas City Chiefs, who sit at +320.

Much of the reason the Eagles became a force was due to the play of Jalen Hurts, who has only improved each season in the NFL. He's managed to better his accuracy each season since his rookie year in 2020. Hurts, who was at one time the favorite for the MVP a year ago, had a completion percentage of 52.0% that rose to 61.3% in 2021 and 66.5% in 2022. The passing numbers have gotten better and better for Hurts, and the Eagles have followed suit in the last two seasons.

Philadelphia does have the best win total in the NFC (11.5) and surely is well-equipped to reach that level this season. numberFire has the Eagles projected for the second-most wins in the upcoming season at 10.8, ranked once again only behind the Chiefs. The Eagles also finish one behind Kansas City in Super Bowl percentage (10.3%). They do, however, have the highest playoff percentage at 75.5%. It won't be easy for the Eagles, who have the most difficult strength of schedule based on last season's totals; their 2023 schedule has a cumulative .566 win percentage.

With +350 odds, the Eagles' implied chances sit at 22.22% to earn the top seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers (+400)

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a NFC Championship appearance with a third-string quarterback so yeah, they're just as deserving as the Eagles to be considered for the No. 1 spot in the NFC this upcoming season.

Heading into the 2023 season, the 49ers sit at a 10.5 win total, which is the same mark both set at FanDuel Sportsbook and projected by numberFire. San Francisco has a talented roster that will push them toward the playoffs again; numberFire has their playoff chances projected at 73.1%. The 49ers only trail the Chiefs in terms of confidence in winning their division, sitting at 55.5%.

The chances of the 49ers getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC will come down to staying healthy and, of course, quarterback play. San Francisco will have to make a decision on who will kick off the season as their starter. Brock Purdy likely has the inside track after 49ers general manager John Lynch said he "earned the right", but the former No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance will have a shot.

Their schedule isn't going to hurt them too much if last year was any indication. The 49ers enter the season with the 15th-highest strength of schedule; their opponents had a .514 winning percentage in 2022.

San Francisco has the talent and personnel to make the leap to that top seed.

Talented Enough to Make a Run

For some teams in the NFC, it's time to really show what they're all about. It was a season ago the Eagles won with +1000 odds, so these teams are certainly worth paying attention to. They're good enough if they can put it all together.

Dallas Cowboys (+550)

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2023 season as the projected third-best team in the NFC, and the odds show it at +550.

They fit the "prove it or lose it" moniker more than any other team in the NFC. It's been years of trying to show they can get back to the Super Bowl and coming up with nothing. After their exit in the divisional round and scoring just 12 points, the Cowboys moved on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Head coach Mike McCarthy will take over play calling. That's all well and good, but it comes down to Dak Prescott if they want to reach the number-one seed and more.

Dallas has a projected win total of 9.5 heading into the season, and numberFire has the Cowboys projected for 9.6 wins. They're coming off a season where they finished 12-5 in a tough division that featured two other playoff teams, which will play a big part in their success this season.

At +550, the Cowboys have a 15.38% implied chance of earning themselves the number one spot. Their strength of schedule is tied for the fourth-most difficult in the NFL, so if the Cowboys want to get the top seed for the first time since 1995, they're going to have to show they're real contenders this time around early.

New Orleans Saints (+1000)

There may be no team more interesting in the NFC than the New Orleans Saints.

It was just a season ago that the Philadelphia Eagles had +1000 odds to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and that's exactly what they did. If you're looking for another team to do exactly that in the NFC, then the Saints have the makeup to be considered.

The key change for the Saints over the offseason was the addition of quarterback Derek Carr. At 32 years old, we know what kind of QB he is at this point, but with an offense that features Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and the newly added Jamaal Williams, there should be little problem making a splash this season.

New Orleans was a game away from making the playoffs in the poor NFC South, and now with Tom Brady retired, the Carolina Panthers undergoing a rebuild, and the Atlanta Falcons doing the same, this is the Saints' opportunity to take advantage of their poor division, and it can help them get an even higher seed if they were to win the majority of their divisional games.

The Saints have a win total set at 9.5. numberFire is around the same for New Orleans, projecting them for 9.3 victories and giving them a playoff percentage of 56.1%, which is among the top 10 in the NFL ahead of the upcoming season.

If you're looking for a longshot bet then the Saints, who have the 31st-toughest schedule based on 2022 records heading into the season, may be your best bet of them all in the NFC.

Detroit Lions (+1000)

There are perhaps no teams as exciting as the Detroit Lions heading into this season.

Head coach Dan Campbell has the team roaring heading into 2023 after a year where the Lions came just short of making the playoffs in 2022. Coming off a 9-8 season, FanDuel Sportsbook heads into the season with +1000 odds to take the top spot in the NFC -- the same odds that the Eagles had a season ago.

Where the Lions benefit most heading into this season is the exit of Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers didn't make the playoffs last season, but when Rodgers was at the helm, they were always the division favorite and a threat. The Chicago Bears are an improved team on the back of Justin Fields but aren't a threat. All the Lions have to worry about in the division is the Minnesota Vikings, and even then, Detroit may have the edge.

Detroit's win total is set at 9.5 for the upcoming season with -122 odds to the over. numberFire is around the same as their wins on the season, sitting at 9.2 for the year (11th-highest of any team for 2023).

numberFire also predicts the Lions to have 56.0% playoff chances -- easily the best of the NFC North heading into the season.

The Saints are easier to understand of the two teams with +1000 odds thanks to their strength of schedule, but if Jared Goff can play to the level he did a year ago and their defense makes a jump, the Lions will make noise.

Minnesota Vikings (+1500)

Much of the benefit for the Minnesota Vikings heading into the season outside of being the defending division winner is that the competition in the division remains weak outside of the Lions.

The Vikings, for a long time, were a team that has the offense, the defense, and the coaching to be a top seed, but they have proved time and time again they can't make a run. That being said, it seems a little unfair to doubt them this much based on where they were last season.

In the Vikings' first year under head coach Kevin O'Connell, they went 13-4 -- one win off of a league-best record. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson showed all that they were probably the most lethal combination in the league in the regular season, but as often happens with the Vikings, they came up short in the playoffs.

The additions of Marcus Davenport and Byron Murphy to replace Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson on defense should benefit them in 2023 defensively, but the loss of defensive leader Eric Kendricks will hurt them. The offense will look different also with Adam Thielen gone. They drafted rookie receiver Jordan Addison to replace Thielen, but the release of Dalvin Cook (for now) should also hurt.

Heading into the season, the Vikings have a projected win total of 8.5, which is higher than what numberFire is expecting from the NFC North winners. Minnesota is expected to get 7.7 wins, per numberFire, with 36.1% projected playoff chances. That number is a stunning one; they rank lower than the Packers, who have a 42.8% chance.

Ultimately, the Vikings could be a steal of a bet if they're able to come together quickly and improve again under O'Connell. Again, a 13-4 record was only one off from the record that got the top seed a year ago.

Best of the Rest

Seattle Seahawks (+1600)

The Seattle Seahawks had a fantastic offseason and enter 2023 with an opportunity to make a run.

After being expected to take a step back with the trade of Russell Wilson but instead showed signs of life with Geno Smith surprising everyone with his growth in play. Smith was one of the NFL's best passers and should only get better. The Seahawks added to their already-stacked receiving core of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett by drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The high-powered offense will be paired with a defense that added Julian Love, Devin Bush, and welcomed back Bobby Wagner.

Seattle has a 8.5 win total with -142 odds to go over. numberFire has them projected for 8.2 wins and a 42.1% chance to reach the playoffs. The Seahawks may suffer from not being the best team in their division, but a jump should be expected to be made whether it's good enough for the top seed or not.

Experience will be on the side of Seattle with Pete Carroll returning as head coach, and if there's anyone who can get the best out of his team in the NFC, we know Carroll can.

Atlanta Falcons (+1600)

There's no doubt the Atlanta Falcons made efforts in the offseason to improve but their success in 2023 will all come down to the quarterback position.

Desmond Ridder is going to be the reason the Falcons succeed or fail this upcoming season. He will be their number-one guy with Taylor Heinicke sitting behind him as a solid backup. The good news is that Ridder has been handed a talented offense around him with first-round pick Bijan Robinson becoming the focal point of the offense. That should take plenty of pressure off of the second-year quarterback.

It's on the defensive side that they made huge strides in free agency, adding key veterans Jessie Bates III, Bud Dupree, and Calais Campbell. Other players should also boost them on that side of the ball.

The benefit for the Falcons is that the Saints, who are the favored team in the NFC South, are not -- by any means -- a heavy favorite while the Panthers and Buccaneers are levels below. Atlanta holds an 8.5 win total with numberFire projecting them to finish with 8.6 victories, ranking ahead of the Seahawks and Vikings.

Head coach Arthur Smith is going to stick to his usual gameplan of being a run-first, run-often team, and if Ridder shows any improvements, it should all work out. The top overall seed in the NFC though? Ridder would have to make an even bigger leap than pundits expect, but you never know.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.