NFL Win Totals: The Lions Have a Lot of Things Going for Them

The Detroit Lions ended the 2022 season with a 9-8 record, finishing 2nd in the NFC North and 8th in the NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Coming off their first winning season since 2017, Detroit is looking to take the next step and contend for an NFC Championship.

Will the Lions surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Detroit Lions 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

• Over: -122
• Under: +100

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -170
Odds to Win the NFC North: +145
Odds to Win the NFC: +1400
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2200

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why Detroit Could Win Over 9.5 Games

• Jared Goff Continues to Improve
• Offseason Additions Make an Impact
• The Defense Improves

For the first time in what seems like forever, there is optimism in Detroit heading into a new season. After finishing 2022 with 8 wins in their final 10 games, the Lions enter 2022 as the favorites to win the NFC North (+145). The expectation is that Detroit will build on the level of play they displayed in the second half of last season and be serious contenders in the NFC. They have the fourth-best odds to win the conference (+900).

For that to happen, Jared Goff is going to need to continue to improve. In 2022, Goff's second season in Detroit, he improved in nearly every category. His yards per attempt increased from 6.6 to 7.6, his yards per game increased by 29.3, his touchdowns thrown per game increased from 1.4 to 1.7, and he threw one fewer interception while playing in three more games. Of the seven quarterbacks with at least 26 touchdowns last season, Goff was the only one with fewer than 8 interceptions.

Despite that improvement, Goff's Pro Football Focus passing grade (71.6) was the fifth-lowest of his seven-season career. Except for his rookie season, Goff recorded a higher passing grade in each of his years on the Los Angeles Rams. There is still room for Goff to improve, and with the talent around him in Detroit, any further improvement he makes will greatly increase the Lions' chances of winning at least 10 games this season.

The Lions entered this offseason with a treasure trove of draft capital. When the dust settled, they ended up using their two first-round picks to select running back Jahmyr Gibbs (12th overall) and linebacker Jack Campbell (18th overall), and their two second-round picks to select tight end Sam LaPorta (34th overall) and safety Brian Branch (45th overall). In free agency, they added running back David Montgomery, cornerback Cameron Sutton, and safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.

How productive these players are in their first seasons in Detroit will have a large impact on the Lions' record.

Detroit's offense performed at an elite level last season, scoring the fifth-most points (453) and earning Pro Football Focus' eighth-highest grade (79.0). The additions of Gibbs and LaPorta address the losses of D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson and reinforce a strength for the Lions.

Detroit will also benefit from sophomore wide receiver Jameson Williams finally joining the offense in a full-time role. Williams will begin the season serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy, but once he returns, he has the potential to provide the Lions' offense with a true number-one outside receiver to pair with elite slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Williams, the 12th overall pick in the 2022 draft, played just 78 snaps last season after tearing his ACL in his final college game. Williams was an elite prospect coming out of Alabama and has a chance to be Detroit's most impactful addition once he's fully integrated into the offense.

If the Lions maintain their offensive production from last season, their path to winning 10 games will be easier. If they improve beyond last season's production, bigger goals could be obtainable.

The reason Detroit's prolific offense didn't' result in a better outcome in 2022 was the horrendous play of their defense. The Lions' D allowed the fourth-most points (427) and earned the fourth-lowest grade (60.4) from Pro Football Focus. Their coverage unit was particularly ineffective, earning the lowest grade in the league (48.8).

Campbell, Branch, Sutton, and Gardner-Johnson will have a chance to turn things around. If they can make impactful contributions, it could result in exponential improvement for Detroit. Even a league-average defense would put Detroit on the path to winning at least 10 games, assuming their offense doesn't regress.

Why Detroit Could Win Under 9.5 Games

• The Defense Doesn't Improve
• The Offense Regresses
• The NFC North Surprises

If the Lions' defense doesn't improve this season, their path to winning 10 games will be very difficult. Their offense played at an elite level last campaign, and Detroit still won only nine games because of a defense that surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game. While they did make several additions this offseason, they did not change their defensive coordinator, opting to stick with Aaron Glenn.

In Glenn's two seasons in charge of Detroit's defense, they have allowed the second-most and fourth-most points in the league. In 2021, they ranked last in Pro Football Focus' run defense grade (36.6), tackling grade (32.7), and overall defense grade (44.6). They ranked second to last in their coverage grade (35.8) and fifth in their pass rush grade (64.8). In 2022, with the addition of Aidan Hutchinson, they improved in every category but still finished at or near the bottom of the league in coverage, run defense, and overall defense.

The question for this season is -- with an influx of talent, can the Lions continue to improve to a point where the defense isn't a liability? If Glenn can't get them to that point, it could lead to a disappointing season in Detroit and make winning at least 10 games an incredibly difficult task.

On the other side of the ball, the expectation is that offseason additions will lead to even better things from an offense that put up the third-highest points per game total in team history. That's a very high bar. The talent is there, as is the continuity at head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback, but further improvements will require the Lions' new additions to hit the ground running and produce in their first seasons with the team.

Detroit's outlook on offense is far better than on defense, but there are still scenarios where they have an effective offense but fail to replicate the elite level of success they had last season. If that happens while their defense remains in the bottom third of the league, winning 10 games will be tough.

Finally, while the Lions are expected to face a middle-of-the-road schedule this season, per 2023 win totals, that could change if the NFC North surprises.

The Minnesota Vikings' offense, which earned the fifth-highest offensive grade from Pro Football Focus last season, could be even better with the addition of rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison. After being held back by an ineffective D last season, the Vikings changed defensive coordinators and made multiple additions in the offseason.

The Chicago Bears had a large influx of talent on both sides of the ball this offseason, adding wide receiver D.J. Moore and linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards in free agency. Their season will depend on quarterback Justin Fields taking the next step, but if he does, they could be a drastically improved team in 2023.

The Green Bay Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers but still have the third-best odds to win the division (+350) and the eighth-best odds to win the NFC (+1800). The core of their offense is inexperienced but talented. If things work out -- especially if Jordan Love is good -- they could provide the Lions with two difficult games this season and make their path to 10 wins even harder.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.