NFL Win Totals: Will the Cowboys Win Double-Digit Games Despite a Tough Schedule?

The Dallas Cowboys ended the 2022 regular season with a 12-5 record, finishing second in the NFC East en route to a playoff berth. From there, Dallas defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road on Wild Card Weekend before being eliminated in the Divisional Round by the San Francisco 49ers.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Despite being knocked off by the same hated rival in back-to-back seasons, head coach Mike McCarthy is eager to get Dallas over the hump. Still, the Cowboys have tough competition in the NFC East. Bunched with the Washington Commanders, New York Giants, and reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, the NFC East is one of the toughest divisions in football.

Will the Cowboys surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dallas Cowboys 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

Over: -154
Under: +124

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -225
Odds to Win the NFC East: +175
Odds to Win the NFC: +600
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +1400

Key Offseason Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator -- Brian Schottenheimer in for Kellen Moore (who is now OC of the Los Angeles Chargers).

Why Dallas Could Win Over 9.5 Games:

• Increased continuity
• Elite defense
• Strength in the trenches

The Cowboys have been considered Super Bowl contenders in every season under McCarthy's tenure. Coming into the 2023 campaign, Dallas is listed at +1400 to win Super Bowl LVIII in Sin City, per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. For reference, those are the sixth-shortest odds in the market, and the third-best odds among all NFC teams. Prior to the season, numberFire gives the Cowboys a 5.9% chance to hoist this season's Lombardi Trophy.

Of course, Dallas' offense is led by the polarizing Dak Prescott. Through seven seasons with a star on each side of his helmet, Prescott has shown that he has the ability to play at the highest level. However, lack of consistency, injury issues and recent playoff woes have held Prescott back from garnering elite passer status.

In 2022, Prescott made only 12 starts due to suffering a fracture in his throwing hand early on. Prescott returned by Week 7, building momentum into the playoffs. He was able to silence some of his playoff doubters in 2022 after he trounced the Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend. In that game, the Mississippi State product complied more than 300 passing yards with a completion rate of 75.8% while scoring five total touchdowns.

This upcoming season, the Cowboys will return two of Prescott's most trusted targets in CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Additionally, running back Tony Pollard -- who features fantastic receiving skills -- will no longer share time with Ezekiel Elliott, and Dallas brought in Brandin Cooks. Can this unit get Dallas over the hump?

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys boast a defense that is absolutely capable of taking them to a championship.

With Dan Quinn returning as defensive coordinator, Dallas' defense will likely rank in the top five of most categories (turnovers, yards allowed, points allowed, etc.).

Naturally, it all starts with Micah Parsons for the Cowboys; the 2021 DROY moves around the formation like a shapeshifting game-wrecker. The secondary is led by All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs, who has collected 17 total interceptions in only three seasons. Additionally, Dallas added former Defensive MVP Stephon Gilmore to play opposite Diggs.

The Cowboys are pretty nasty in the trenches, too. Their defensive front seven already features Parsons. From there, Demarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch are physical tone-setters at D-Line and linebacker, respectively. On the offensive line, Dallas' right side is anchored by wily veterans Zack Martin and Terence Steele; the Ty Smiths (Tyron Smith and Tyler Smith) hold down the left side.

Why Dallas Could Win Under 9.5 Games:

• Divisional competition
• Cowboys face the AFC East in 2023
• Physically small receiving corps

Dallas holds talent all throughout their current roster, but the same can be said for many of their direct competitors. In the NFC East, three of the four teams made the playoffs last year while Philadelphia went all the way to Super Bowl LVII. Washington was the odd man out in 2022, but even they almost qualified for postseason play.

Last year, the Cowboys went 4-2 within their division, splitting games with the Eagles and Commanders while sweeping the G-Men. All teams are expected to come back strong in 2023-24.

The NFC East will indeed be tough again, and on top of that, they are matched up with the AFC East for the upcoming campaign -- that means the Cowboys will be tasked with taking on the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins in 2023. Fortunately for Dallas, they will host both the Jets and Pats by Week 4. Near the end of the season, the Cowboys will travel to Buffalo and Miami in consecutive weeks -- that should prove arduous.

Also sticking out on Dallas' schedule is their California trip over Weeks 5 and 6. They will first head to Santa Clara to deal with the 49ers before heading down south to Inglewood where the Los Angeles Chargers will await.

For Dallas' position groups, it may be the receiving corps that needs an upgrade. The Cowboys did well to bring in Cooks, but he provides a similar skillset to the aforementioned Lamb and Gallup. Currently, the group lacks a true possession receiver. Lamb and Gallup are both around 6-feet tall but carry slight frames. Additionally, Dallas is not as deep at the tight end spot -- Jake Ferguson is projected as the starter for the Cowboys on Ourlads.

Lamb is definitively the number-one target in this offense, but can Prescott count on the fourth-year receiver to take over when it matters most? Only time will tell.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.