NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds Update: A Surprise Contender Joins the Race

The NFL season is nearly over, which means awards season is just around the corner. As teams prepare for Week 13, their players are polishing up resumes for awards like the Associated Press' Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) honors.

This year's race could come down to the wire, with multiple massive shakeups just as we enter the home stretch. Let's take a look on FanDuel Sportsbook for this year's Defensive Player of the Year betting odds.

A Tenuous Lead

While the three frontrunners remain unchanged, there have been some massive shakeups since our last entry. Namely, our primary frontrunner -- Myles Garrett -- suffered a shoulder injury in Week 12 that could put his compelling DPOY case in jeopardy. It's unclear whether Garrett will be forced to miss any time, but it needs to be said that any missed time could compromise his otherwise flawless 2023 resume.

Dating back to at least 2010, no player has won the award while playing fewer than 14 games. It's clear that the AP's voters value availability when making their decisions, so Garrett's injury could be a major deciding factor when it comes time to tally votes.

Garrett's case has another potential hurdle to cross, as well. Even if he is able to play through his shoulder injury, the Cleveland Browns' season is circling the drain. While they currently hold a strong 7-4 record, the team lost its starting quarterback to injury two weeks ago and could have an extremely tough time maintaining their winning record over the remaining weeks without a viable offense. Few DPOY winners emerge from teams with losing records, jeopardizing Garrett's otherwise strong case.

Steady Stalwarts

Behind Garrett, both Parsons (+175) and Watt (+250) have both maintained the elite production that's kept them neck-and-neck with the Browns' star throughout the year. By the odds, Parsons has the edge over Watt, but Watt has actually been more productive than the Dallas Cowboys' star this year -- almost across the board. Just check out the side-by-side of their statistical accomplishments this year:

Watt has the edge over Parsons in every category listed except for tackles for a loss (TFLs), where he trails Parsons by one.

But as we mentioned before, DPOY isn't exactly won in a vacuum. The Pittsburgh Steelers' 7-4 record has a little bit of ground to make up compared to the Cowboys' 8-3 record, and their defense as a whole has been slightly less dominant than either the Cowboys' or the Browns'.

According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, Dallas' defense ranks third-best overall this year, whereas Pittsburgh's comes in at sixth. And while the Cowboys' defense has allowed the second-fewest passing yards and third-fewest rushing yards, the Steelers have given up the 13th-most yards in passing and rushing. The Steelers have still done an elite job keeping their foes out of the end zone, but their defense doesn't quite resemble the immovable wall the Cowboys have constructed for most of the year.

However, the race isn't over yet, and Watt could still emerge victorious. The Cowboys will have to take on a brutal stretch of opponents over the final six weeks of the season, including the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and Detroit Lions. A series of games against high-powered offenses could take down the Cowboys' elite defense and make it difficult for Parsons to continue racking up defensive stats in the back half of the year.

By comparison, the Steelers could coast to a wild card spot given their upcoming schedule, which includes just one game against a team that ranks inside the top half of numberFire's power rankings. Watt could hit a stretch of insane production against weaker offenses like the New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, and the Jake Browning-led Cincinnati Bengals.

A Unicorn Joins the Race

The most exciting shakeup to the 2023 DPOY race has been the screaming emergence of DaRon Bland (+1400), whose record-setting season has come out of nowhere and makes him a serious contender for the award. The Cowboys cornerback's year-end case will enjoy several of the same benefits that his pass-rushing teammate does -- he plays for one of the best defenses in the league and is on a team that looks destined for another playoff berth.

But Bland's case for the DPOY sets him apart from both his 2023 competitors and most of the winners in the award's recent history. On Thanksgiving, he broke the record for most interception-return touchdowns in NFL history, notching his fifth such score this season with six games remaining. Grabbing five interceptions is a remarkable feat in its own right, but bringing that many back to the house is frankly unheard of.

It's not just the interception returns, though, as Bland is having an extremely strong season past his seven interceptions and five touchdowns. He has allowed a stingy 6.3 yards per target on the year while giving up just 350 total yards (65th-most) on 56 targets. He isn't missing many tackles -- his 7.7% rate ranks outside the "top" 200 this year -- and has given up just a single touchdown on top of that. He's having a very strong year defensively in addition to becoming an NFL record-holder.

Breaking a record that had held strong since 1971 is a massive accomplishment and one that could definitely land Bland the DPOY award by the end of the year. However, he's not exactly a lock for the title.

The award has heavily favored pass-rushers in the modern NFL, while the cornerback position has produced just two winners since the turn of the century. Former New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore was the most recent winner at the position in 2019. Gilmore led the league in interceptions (six), returning two of them for touchdowns, and he allowed zero touchdowns on the season while captaining the strongest defense in the league.

Bland's 2023 season is on a similar trajectory, making him an intriguing bet at his current +1400 odds. We don't see many winners at his position, but when we do, their seasons look like his.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.