New Zealand ML

+1300

Draw +600 · O/U 3.5

Over 3.5 +124 · CBS/Green primary · Belgium MUST WIN

Belgium ML

-550

Belgium 3-1 New Zealand · De Bruyne fires · Lukaku breaks duck · Just scores again 🇳🇿 1–3 🇧🇪

Belgium's WC has been a collective embarrassment relative to expectations — one goal in two games, zero goals with 23 attempts vs Iran. But this is New Zealand: a team that has lost 10 of their last 13, conceded 5 goals in two WC matches, and hasn't kept a clean sheet in 13 straight games. Belgium's quality has to come through here.

The return of Doku from paternity leave is crucial. RotoWire: "The addition of Doku should work wonders — the issue has been turning possession into goals, and with a knockout place on the line, De Bruyne and Lukaku have to finally deliver." NZ will score — they have in both games — but Belgium have too much quality, too much desperation, and BC Place's enclosed dome suits their technical style.

WhoScored: Belgium 83% win probability. CBS Green: Over 3.5 +124 primary. Prediction: Belgium 3-1 NZ.

⚠️ Projected · Doku Questionable · ❌ Ngoy OUT (red card) · Racing Post/Sportsgambler/RotoWire consensus

⚠️ Projected · Covers/WhoScored consensus · No injuries · NZ have not kept a clean sheet in 13 straight games

CBS/Green (18-8 last 26 UCL picks) primary: "Green is leaning Over 3.5 total goals (+124). New Zealand have played their first two matches to the Over." NZ vs Iran 2-2, NZ vs Egypt 3-1 — both went Over 3 total. Belgium have 23 pent-up shots from Iran. Both teams must win — there's no defensive caution tonight. NZ haven't kept a clean sheet in 13 games. Belgium should score 3+. $10→$22.40.

Over 3.5 +124 — CBS/Green primary. NZ both WC games over 3 goals. Belgium pent up. Both must win. $10→$22.40.

FOX Sports: "If Belgium can't score on New Zealand, something is seriously wrong. Take Kevin de Bruyne At Least One Goal/Assist (-155)." Belgium's entire attack flows through De Bruyne. WhoScored: "De Bruyne has totalled over 3.5 shots in his last five games. Against opposition expected to sit deep, he should rack up attempts." With Doku back to stretch NZ's defence, De Bruyne will have even more space. Whether he scores or assists, likely both across 90 minutes. $10→$16.45.

De Bruyne G/A -155 — FOX primary. "Seriously wrong" if Belgium can't score. 3.5+ shots last 5 games. $10→$16.45.

Squawka: "Lukaku has scored heavily in qualifying for both club and country across 2025/26 and is the shortest price in the goalscorer market at -120." Sportsgambler: "Romelu Lukaku available at -159 — there's value in the odds that he finds the net at least once." Belgium's all-time top scorer with 90 international goals has been blanked in both WC games despite chances. Against a NZ side with zero clean sheets in 13 games, Lukaku needs just one of those touches to click. $10→$18.33.

SI: "I'm not afraid to bet on a player from New Zealand to score. Elijah Just has scored twice in this tournament, and is 23rd amongst all players in expected goals at 1.59. That's enough for me to take a shot on him scoring a third time at +650." NZ have scored in both WC games. WhoScored gives BTTS a 62% probability — if Belgium score, NZ can too. Just has been NZ's best player and has a nose for goal. $10→$75.