✅ Pays out: Your chosen player scores the very first goal of the match in 90 minutes + stoppage time.

⚠️ Voids (stake returned): Match ends 0-0. Very unlikely given NZ's 13-game clean-sheet drought and both teams needing to win. CBS Green backs Over 3.5 at +124.

❌ Loses: A different player scores first. Own goals don't count — the next scorer becomes FGS. Note Belgium's only WC "goal" was an own goal — if that happens again, next scorer is FGS.

🚨 Fitness caveat: Lukaku (~60 min) and Doku (NOT fit full 90) both carry FGS timing risk. If the first goal comes after they've been subbed, your bet loses. De Bruyne, playing full 90, does not carry this risk.

Goal.com explicit Prediction #3: "First team to score — New Zealand @ +425." NZ have opened the scoring in both WC matches — vs Iran (7th minute, Just) and vs Egypt (15th minute, Surman header from a corner). Belgium have 0 open-play goals in 180 WC minutes. Their only "goal" was an Egyptian own goal.

NZ's compact, physical, set-piece approach is designed to grab early goals, and Belgium's notoriously slow starts make this a live +425 play. This is the standout value bet on the board — the "First team to score NZ" market pays out on any NZ player, not just one specific one, spreading your risk across their whole attack.

Sportsgambler confirms Lukaku at +280 FGS — the market favourite. He is Belgium's primary striker with 90 international goals and will almost certainly start. The timing caveat is critical: Reuters/Scores24 report he is expected to play only around 60 minutes. If Belgium open the scoring in the first hour (very likely given NZ's defensive record), Lukaku is well-positioned to be the scorer. $10→$38. Timing risk: back De Bruyne FGS alongside as insurance for later goals.

Goal.com explicit Prediction #3: "New Zealand @ +425 to score first." NZ have opened the scoring in both World Cup matches. Belgium have zero open-play goals in 180 WC minutes. NZ's set-piece and long-ball approach (Surman scored a corner header in the 15th minute vs Egypt) catches teams cold. This is a team market — any NZ player opening the scoring pays out. Covers all NZ FGS scenarios: Wood (set piece), Just (open play), Surman (corner), Cacace (run in behind). $10→$52.50 is excellent value for a genuinely plausible game-script.

De Bruyne is the safest Belgian FGS pick for bettors wanting full-90 coverage — he is expected to play the full match. SBR: "De Bruyne is the only Belgian player who has consistently attacked the net — nine total shots, SoT in both WC games. NZ has allowed two goals to midfielders at this World Cup." He takes set pieces, controls Belgium's attack, and his anytime price of +165 implies a FGS of approximately +450. If Lukaku is subbed after 60 minutes and Belgium need a goal late, De Bruyne is the one making it happen. Check FD for confirmed FGS price.