NCAA Basketball Betting: Can Anyone Upset FAU and Memphis in the AAC?

The 2023-24 men's college basketball season is drawing near, and FanDuel Sportsbook has college basketball conference betting odds live.

Here is how they look for the American Athletic Conference's regular season winner.

Florida Atlantic Owls (+125)

The Florida Atlantic Owls are the favorites to win the American Athletic Conference -- and for good reason.

They are returning more than 90% of their minutes from last season (according to BartTorvik) when they finished 35-4, earned a 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and reached the Final Four.

They ranked 37th in points per game (77.8) and shot 36.6% from the three-point arc, ranking them 54th among 363 D1 schools. Both BartTorvik and KenPom ranked the Owls top-35 in adjusted offensive rating and top-50 in adjusted defensive rating.

The Owls' roster features two preseason all-conference members (guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin).

My model, which leverages consensus rankings and accounts for schedule and home-court advantage, projects FAU to get to 13.5 conference wins. That ties them with Memphis at 13.5 and is 3.5 more wins than any other school's projected win total.

Memphis Tigers (+145)

The only other team in the conference with regular season AAC odds better than +1800 is the Memphis Tigers.

Memphis has a ton of roster turnover this season. The Tigers are returning just 14.9% of their minutes from last year.

Although there is a lot to replace, Memphis has a pair of players selected as preseason rookies of the year: Carl Cherenfant (a four-star recruit) and JJ Taylor (also a four-star recruit).

Despite the amount of expected turnover, Jon Rothstein's projected starting five for Memphis features four seniors and a junior.

Again, they have great consensus expectations and are sitting at 13.5 expected wins. With marginally better odds to win the conference than FAU, that's notable -- but it speaks to why these two squads are heavily favored.

Alabama-Birmingham Blazers (+1800)

There's a big tier drop after FAU and Memphis in the conference win odds.

UAB, American Athletic Conference newcomers, join Tulane and Wichita State at +1800.

Last season, the Blazers held a +14.6 adjusted net rating, via KenPom. That ranked them 47th in the nation.

The projections show an expected dip for UAB, though.

They're 90th in projected efficiency margin for 2023-24 and 77th at BartTorvik.

The top-heavy conference could prove too much for the Blazers, who are Returning just 32.0% of their minutes from last season.

They're led by guard Eric Gaines, a preseason first-teamer in the conference. Gaines averaged 11.5 points and 4.3 assists in his first season with UAB after transferring from LSU.

Notably, UAB rates out with 10.0 projected wins in the conference, via my model, with no other team better than 9.3 (other than the two favorites).

Overall, though, UAB, SMU, North Texas, and Tulane all have pretty similar consensus projections, meaning even if both FAU and Memphis slip, there is no clear third (or even fourth option).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.