NBA Finals: Exact Result Odds Ahead of the Conference Finals

And then there were four.

The Conference Finals are set, and just four teams remain in contention for the 2024 NBA Championship. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers will square off in the Eastern Conference, while the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks will battle it out for the Western Conference crown.

In addition to the NBA Championship odds market, FanDuel Sportsbook offers NBA Finals Exact Result odds where you pick the exact outcome of the Finals.

Let's dive into those exact result odds, breaking down the most (and least) likely outcomes according to the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published.

NBA Finals Exact Result Odds

Celtics to Beat Timberwolves (+170)

The Celtics have -1200 odds to beat the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Timberwolves have -170 odds to beat the Mavericks out west.

numberFire's projections back those odds, giving Boston a 94.35% chance to beat Indiana and the Minnesota a 79.17% chance to move past Dallas.

Boston also has the shortest odds to win the NBA Championship (-160), with Minnesota boasting the second-shortest odds (+290).

Thus, Celtics to beat Timberwolves is the favorite in the exact result market at +170 odds.

In terms of net rating, these have been the two best teams in the playoffs. The Celtics have a +12.8 net rating, and the Wolves have a +8.5 net rating.

During the regular season, these teams split the series 1-1. Notably, the home team won each game, though both matchups went to overtime.

Celtics to Beat Mavericks (+270)

With Boston being such a heavy favorite to win the title, the second-shortest odds in the exact result market belong to Celtics to beat Mavericks at +270.

The Mavericks are +138 underdogs in the Western Conference Finals -- a fitting number considering Minnesota bested Dallas 3-1 in the regular season.

However, all four matchups came before Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. After adding those two, the Mavericks had the fourth-best record (21-8) in the NBA and sixth-best net rating (+5.4).

Still, Boston would appear to have the upper hand if Dallas advanced to the Finals. The Celtics won both regular season meetings over the Mavs, including a 28-point drubbing with Washington and Gafford active in March.

Timberwolves to Beat Celtics (+340)

Of any result that doesn't involve Boston winning, the Timberwolves to beat Celtics has the shortest odds at +340.

Considering these sides split the regular season series and that Boston has a major injury question mark via Kristaps Porzingis, Minnesota certainly would have a chance against the Celtics. That said, Boston was without their do-it-all big man when they beat the Wolves in January.

Minnesota would need to win at least one game on the road to beat Boston in the Finals, but they tied for the third-best road record (26-15) in the regular season. They've gone 5-1 away from home this postseason, including their Game 7 win against the Denver Nuggets in the Conference Semifinals -- one of their three road wins over Denver in the series.

Mavericks to Beat Celtics (+650)

Of the four exact results with shorter than 10/1 odds, Mavericks to beat Celtics is perhaps the most intriguing.

At +650 odds, this result has slightly bigger odds than just taking the Mavericks to win the NBA Championship (+500).

The Wolves haven't seen this new-look Mavs frontcourt, and Dallas has managed to advance to the Western Conference Finals despite Luka Doncic shooting just 42.3% in the playoffs. In two regular season dates with Boston, Doncic put up 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists per game. If Luka starts playing at his usual level, Dallas likely has the best player left in the playoffs.

Other Notables

The Pacers are heavy underdogs (+680) against the Celtics, so it makes sense their odds in the exact result market are so long. Notably, Boston won the regular season series 3-2. The Pacers lost both matchups in Boston, and they're just 2-5 on the road this postseason.

Even if they advanced past the Celtics, Indiana would be an underdog against either Western Conference team. Timberwolves to beat Pacers is +1500, while Mavericks to beat Pacers is +2300.

Pacers to beat Timberwolves is +3800, and Pacers to beat Mavericks is +4700 -- the two biggest long shots in the exact result market.

Indiana lost both games to Minnesota in the regular season but beat Dallas twice.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.