NBA DFS Picks: Sunday 11/17/24
If you're looking to have some fun this basketball season, NBA DFS on FanDuel has you covered.
With NBA DFS, you can put your hoops knowledge to the test and ride with players you think will go off in a given night.
To help you along the way, we've got a bunch of tools here at FanDuel Research. Specifically, our NBA DFS projections, powered by numberFire, update throughout the day to reflect current news.
On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down some of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.
Betting lines via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and betting odds may change after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
NBA DFS Picks for Today
Guards
Top Priorities
Fred VanVleet ($7,100)
There isn't substantial injury news with the Houston Rockets today. This is just an awesome matchup for Fred VanVleet.
The opposing Chicago Bulls allow the second-most FanDuel points (FDP) per game to point guards (54.2) behind the league's fastest pace (105.2) and eighth-worst defensive rating (116.2 DRTG).
VanVleet has finally shaken off an early-season shooting slump to top 35 FDP in three straight games, and two of those came against a stingy Los Angeles Clippers D.
At 39.6 expected FDP, FanDuel Research's NBA DFS projections wholeheartedly endorse FVV on Sunday.
Terry Rozier ($5,600)
While VanVleet might have exited a slump, Terry Rozier is in the midst of his.
Jimmy Butler (ankle) has missed three straight games and remains out for Sunday, but you wouldn't know it looking at Rozier's FanDuel box score. That's because he's battled 11-for-31 (35.5%) shooting as Tyler Herro has been red-hot.
There's hope today. The Indiana Pacers allow the 5th-most points per game to opposing point guards (26.2) and 12th-fewest to two guards. The translation there is potentially more Rozier looks and fewer for Herro.
Longtime NBA DFS players know how this goes. A player busts as chalk for three straight games, and in the same role, they're an excellent plug at minimal popularity. Hold your nose with the Miami Heat's floor general on Sunday.
Others to Consider
Trae Young ($9,300)
Trae Young started the season over 43 FDP in 8 of his first 10 games, so this salary is friendly despite a showing against the Washington Wizards that wasn't optimal on Friday. The Portland Trail Blazers allow the seventh-most made threes per game to point guards (3.4), so he could quickly hop back on the horse here.
Jamal Murray ($7,800)
If there's chalk to fade today, it's Jamal Murray. Additional usage without Nikola Jokic (personal) hasn't worked in his favor, posting just 31.6 FDP per 36 minutes in floor situations without the playmaking big this season. The salary bump here doesn't seem to match the production.
Wings
Top Priorities
Kyle Kuzma ($6,900)
DFS in Wizards games has been a simple formula. You can largely consider any of the opponents and run it back with Kyle Kuzma.
Kuzma's team-best 31.4% usage rate has led to 38.2 FDP per 36 minutes. Because seven of Washington's last eight games have been decided by double-digit margins, those minutes remain a question against stronger foes.
At the very least, the Wiz are in their own weight class against the Detroit Pistons today as 5.5-point underdogs. Detroit allows the 10th-most FDP per game to Kuzma's four spot (49.1), too.
We've got Kuzma projected for 36.8 FDP in 33.0 minutes on Sunday. That seems wholly reasonable if his efforts help D.C. prevent yet another blowout.
Caris LeVert ($5,800)
Donovan Mitchell (rest) is one of the larger names on today's injury report, so the Cleveland Cavaliers bring inherent value to this slate.
Evan Mobley ($8,100) and Darius Garland ($7,900) both average at least 50 FDP per 36 minutes with Mitchell off the floor this season, but neither see the largest increase on the team. That's Caris LeVert, who has posted a whopping 45.4 FDP per 36 minutes in 143 minutes without Mitchell this season. That's come with a 20.0% usage rate.
Personally, a lot of Cleveland's "without Mitchell" numbers are a bit skewed because they've been torching everyone regardless of floor condition, but FanDuel Research's projection for LeVert, likely shifting into the lineup, is more than fair. They expect 32.2 FDP in 30.0 minutes.
Others to Consider
Mikal Bridges ($6,600)
Who doesn't love a revenge game? Mikal Bridges probably had the Brooklyn Nets circled after the offseason trade, and he's found his stride in time for it. The wing has topped 30 FDP in four of his last five games, and a few more shots and boards might fall his way if Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) misses a second straight contest.
Tari Eason ($6,300)
The Rockets are in no rush to get Amen Thompson (quad) back if it means more playing time for Tari Eason. Eason has been one of the league's most productive bench players at 43.5 FDP per 36 minutes this season. This uptempo contest with the Bulls probably isn't the place it stops.
Bigs
Top Priorities
Jalen Duren ($6,000)
Choosing between Jalen Duren and Donovan Clingan today is exasperating, but I've got to give the slight nod to Duren on matchup. I did write him up in today's NBA best bets after all.
Over 30 minutes in two of three games since returning from an ankle injury, the former Memphis Tigers star could absolutely demolish a Wizards interior that has allowed the eighth-most paint points per game (51.8) and very most second-chance points per game (18.0) in the NBA.
We've got Duren projected for 34.2 FDP in just 28.9 minutes, so a night of 30-plus minutes could produce a mammoth double-double. Even with a conservative estimate of playing time, he's the algorithm's top value play at center today.
Peyton Watson ($5,800)
There's really one Denver Nuggets player that doesn't mind seeing Jokic on the pine.
That opens the door for playing time for Peyton Watson, who has proven to be a two-way athletic force in limited playing time. He posted 18 points and 5 rebounds in just 29 minutes on Friday without the cornerstone center, but I'm willing to say we haven't seen his true ceiling when he didn't record a block or a steal.
Watson averages 2.8 stocks (steals plus blocks) per 36 minutes, and he's facing a Memphis Grizzlies team that allows 3.3 stocks per game to small forwards (second-most in the NBA).
I'll keep hunting his ceiling game if he'll get regular playing time without Joker.
Others to Consider
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,300)
Once again this season, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a fantasy stud when Ja Morant (foot) is out of the lineup as he is on Sunday. Triple-J has posted 52.5 FDP per 36 minutes on a team-best 32.0% usage rate in those floor situations. Foul trouble is always a risk at this salary, but the reward could be enormous.
Donovan Clingan ($5,200)
Clingan just fell behind Duren in today's center rankings, and it's because I'm not quite sure how sustainable his eight-block effort on Friday will be as most chase the insane box-score performance. Nonetheless, Deandre Ayton (finger) sitting out this game against the Hawks opens the rookie to a full role again.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.